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Baroclinic Zone

January 16 2021 - Inland runner Rain/Snow/Wind

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Could be some nice wind and rains in SNE.  NNE could cash in on some snows which would be welcomed for the winter enthusiasts.

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Let's see who wins on the snowfall track as GYX is looking at a colder solution and CAR is seeing a warmer solution where their service areas intersect

GYX

StormTotalSnow.png

VS CAR

139398288_3904604482983965_2840126745731

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I have a feeling based on past forecasts, CAR maybe closer to reality than GYX with this one given the latest storm track.

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Just now, Greg said:

I have a feeling based on past forecasts, CAR maybe closer to reality than GYX with this one given the latest storm track.

Gyx is never shy 

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I have 5" OTG right now. I am figuring on 4-6 here in a thump, followed by some cold rain/dryslot that pretty much obliterates or pancakes the new snowfall, followed by 3-5" of upslope. I am hoping to end the entire event with 7"+ of glacier OTG. That will be a win in this wonderful winter.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

I have 5" OTG right now. I am figuring on 4-6 here in a thump, followed by some cold rain/dryslot that pretty much obliterates or pancakes the new snowfall, followed by 3-5" of upslope. I am hoping to end the entire event with 7"+ of glacier OTG. That will be a win in this wonderful winter.

I will take the over on 7" of pack for your spot after this event. 

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6 minutes ago, bch2014 said:

I will take the over on 7" of pack for your spot after this event. 

Agreed....I'll bet his net gain is 6"+....he will have probably close to a foot or more on the ground afterward.

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8 minutes ago, bch2014 said:

I will take the over on 7" of pack for your spot after this event. 

 

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Agreed....I'll bet his net gain is 6"+....he will have probably close to a foot or more on the ground afterward.

That's my secret weenie forecast guys... for the board I only provide my thoughtful, restrained forecast. The Northern Greens bread 'n butter crew said I was was being too much of a weenie on this event and had to chill. LOL

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I like where I am for this event. NAM and GFS both pumping out 2-2.5" of QPF here the next 2 to 3 days. How much of it falls as solid vs. liquid will make a big difference with respect to snowfall.

My gut tells me the front end is a 6-8" blue bomb here that turns to some light rain or drizzle in the dry slot tomorrow followed by several more inches of upslope on the backside tomorrow night into Sunday. As such, a foot plus is not out of the question here even if we do get a little rain tomorrow after the heavier precipitation moves out. 

 

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7 minutes ago, wxmanmitch said:

I like where I am for this event. NAM and GFS both pumping out 2-2.5" of QPF here the next 2 to 3 days. How much of it falls as solid vs. liquid will make a big difference with respect to snowfall.

My gut tells me the front end is a 6-8" blue bomb here that turns to some light rain or drizzle in the dry slot tomorrow followed by several more inches of upslope on the backside tomorrow night into Sunday. As such, a foot plus is not out of the question here even if we do get a little rain tomorrow after the heavier precipitation moves out. 

 

You're golden!! Definitely jealous

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1 hour ago, TheMainer said:

Let's see who wins on the snowfall track as GYX is looking at a colder solution and CAR is seeing a warmer solution where their service areas intersect

GYX

StormTotalSnow.png

VS CAR

139398288_3904604482983965_2840126745731

Its the low track right thru the middle of the county that's the issue over towards CAR, NW areas are to the west of the low.

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I anticipate a messy 1-2" atop the current 5, followed by 1"+ RA at 36-38°, leaving 2-3" of armorplate and a driveway suitable for the Bruins to play on.  Also, our "upslope" is generally limited to a few clouds.

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I have a Winter Weather Advisory.  Last time that happened I got 19.8 inches.  I am not holding my breath waiting for a repeat of that.

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Just now, PhineasC said:

12z Euro drops 15"+ here through 36.

A blue bomb.

Even cut in half that would be awesome.

Lock it from you NE, 8-12"

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17 minutes ago, dryslot said:

All the models have been quite persistent over the same area for warning snows.

image.thumb.png.eecacc95e2dbcc1440a33a1f23990b24.png

Does 10:1 count sleet as snow? Seems like most areas in southern/central NH (mine included) would bust low because of the mixing factor.

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5 minutes ago, mcap77 said:

Does 10:1 count sleet as snow? Seems like most areas in southern/central NH (mine included) would bust low because of the mixing factor.

Sleet is not factored in that algorithm, So you would have to cut the totals.

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