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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The GFS is the 7th circle of hell if you like light ZR with temps in the mid-20's :yikes:

@Eskimo Joe - has been "hoping" for a catastrophic ice storm for many years now. Or maybe hoping is the wrong word. He wrote about how bad a serious, serious ice storm could be a while back if my memory is correct. 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

@Eskimo Joe - has been "hoping" for a catastrophic ice storm for many years now. Or maybe hoping is the wrong word. He wrote about how bad a serious, serious ice storm could be a while back if my memory is correct. 

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16 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

The GFS is the 7th circle of hell if you like light ZR with temps in the mid-20's :yikes:

thegfsisalwaysright.jpg.11408aab978c4a16b0dc39023069a52e.jpg

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21 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Oh shit. That’s exactly what you and I were discussing yesterday.

It has that "Look" for a pattern that would support the potential. That, and snow squalls as the PV pivots to the east over Ontario and we get a strong PVA signature with the push of the arctic boundary. Both are on the table with this one. GFS and ICON show basically a pure ice hell scenario. 

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3 minutes ago, Amped said:

Not liking this trend, models consistently underdoing the SE ridge in Day 5-10 timeframe.    Best we can hope for is a thump, then a lot of rain.   

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We need some ridge or it’s cold and dry.  Euro is snow to prolonged ice.

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The Euro on this run consolidates the PV with a rotation back west into Manitoba. That'll allow for a higher amplitude ridge to develop east of the Mississippi and lock the cold air to the north and west. It's the most aggressive model run showing that depiction at range, but is something that is obviously still on the table. 

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Just now, LP08 said:

We need some ridge or it’s cold and dry.  Euro is snow to prolonged ice.

Exactly. You don’t want the TPV over eastern Ontario or Quebec unless you want very cold and dry. And that is arctic air ahead of whatever storm forms. CAD is going to be supercharged. At this point, it’s just clear that there could be a high impact  and long duration winter wx event late next week.

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