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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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2 hours ago, psuhoffman said:

I totally get the frustration in DC. Thing is it’s been a failure of boundary temps not pattern. I don’t know what to say. This has been the pattern since Dec 1 and the last month!   This looks like a match to every big DC snow period.
F97BB0D4-04A8-4ADD-8C9C-B40274206CB6.gif.fbc5c3a36b941fa8ff45740e2a579175.gif
F013EDD6-541D-4EAD-9600-BC177F75A7BB.gif.c8083a2570b555ad86ff837db2ab333c.gif

 

And we’ve had perfect track after perfect track SWs this winter. I count about 5 storms that frankly everything went EXACTLY right for a DC snowstorm and DC got a 37 degree rain or mix event. I don’t know what to say and frankly I don’t even know what DC needs to get snow anymore. Colder is the obvious answer but if a storm takes the perfect track colder would have  suppressed it. If the amount of suppression it takes to get cold enough is so much so that it squashed any wave that’s a problem. And don’t bring up Dallas. They aren’t near the coast east of mountains. Totally different climate. 

The overall temps have warmed over the last several years and on an hourly bases it doesn't get below 32 very often in any given winter season 

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2 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

I dunno, I'd be so happy to have light snow falling all day with actual winter temps.  So sick of non accumulating snow.  I'd love what the ICON is advertising.  

Yeah, but you’re more likely to find more snow on the bridge in Brooklyn it is selling than you will from the storm. 

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12 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

Lower mid Atlantic, northern mid Atlantic, northeast, have done fine compared to climo. So somehow the sea surface temp is only hostile here? And our temp issues are not just a winter phenomenon. 

Sure, I don't think it's the only hostile issue here. I mentioned the Northern Stream dominance this year, which would help to explain why 40N or so and north are at/above climo. There's also a certain amount of bad luck too, of course, but the warming SST profiles do impact temps year round--the biggest difference for our region vs further north is that we were super marginal to begin with. So Philly can warm from 27 to 29 and be fine; we can't warm from 31 to 33 and be fine in mid-winter. Anyway, all of that is to say that, while we are stuck with global warming as an influence in our increasingly-crappy winters, I am hopeful that there is a specific driver in this winter (the NS dominance) that isn't permanent. But for now, it's hard to feel confident in any of the colder/wetter solutions we've been seeing.

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9 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said:

That would kill the event I say we never make separate threads that way it snows because thats how it works.

Agreed.  The storms read this forum and if they see a storm thread, they decide not to hit us.  If they don't see a thread, they talk amongst themselves and make the decision to hit us.  

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Agreed.  The storms read this forum and if they see a storm thread, they decide not to hit us.  If they don't see a thread, they talk amongst themselves and make the decision to hit us.  

Maybe the models are feeling verklempt!  They must talk amongst themselves!

Image result for talk amongst yourselves gif

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

what?

gfs_T2m_neus_20.png

These are the temps on approach.  They improve during the storm but still are a few degrees warmer than previous runs.  I'm a little gun shy about the extended depth of cold due to our previous storms.

gfs-deterministic-ma-t2m_f-3437200.png

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11 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

CMC is a nasty ice storm Saturday night and also has the light snow through my area Monday. The Tuesday storm is snow west of the cities and ice in the cities. Quick hitter like the ICON.

CMC really beefed up qpf for Saturday. Kind of surprised to see that to be honest. 

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At some point, you would think we quit hanging on every model run and acknowledge the seasonal trends, which are what they are.  We still have a lot to be thankful for, considering if you told me preseason we would survive all of met winter without a bona fide torch period, I would have thought you were crazy.  This now appears to be pretty likely.  That is pretty unusual here even in our most prolific seasons.  Struggling to recall the last time this really occured.

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