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WinterWxLuvr

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED

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Just now, Always in Zugzwang said:

And still hammering a sleet bomb with temps in the 20s DC/Balt and southeast.  But snow is maybe not that far to their west.

Now, this is probably my inexperience, but...I'm perplexed at all these sleet/ice solutions we're seeing despite below freezing temps. I wonder what's going on "under the hood", that is what in the pattern is causing us to have these storms modeled with warmer air aloft?

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3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now, this is probably my inexperience, but...I'm perplexed at all these sleet/ice solutions we're seeing despite below freezing temps. I wonder what's going on "under the hood", that is what in the pattern is causing us to have these storms modeled with warmer air aloft?

Check out the 850 temperatures.  They're above 0 nearly the entire time.  Not sure of any other levels.

ETA:  And south winds at 850 as well.

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Wow, very close to a snowstorm on Saturday for my area. Starts as snow and then ice just barely gets far enough NW to get me. Just a small adjustment and 95 and west might have a storm. Would be kinda funny if this ends up being the best snowstorm for the area this winter.

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Just now, osfan24 said:

Wow, very close to a snowstorm on Saturday for my area. Starts as snow and then ice just barely gets far enough NW to get me. Just a small adjustment and 95 and west might have a storm. Would be kinda funny if this ends up being the best snowstorm for the area this winter.

I mean...we are essentially in our prime snowstorm climo period. If the storm of the year is going to happen - might as well be in this next few weeks period. 

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Just now, Kmlwx said:

I mean...we are essentially in our prime snowstorm climo period. If the storm of the year is going to happen - might as well be in this next few weeks period. 

For sure. Just saying that it is floating under the radar. Everyone was focused on the mid-December fail. Then everyone was focused on the early Feb fail. And now everyone is focused on tonight's win/fail, depending on your location, and then storms for next week. Hardly anyone seems focused on Saturday.

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I have been around since wright brothers days.  I am 63 so been following snow a lot longer.  I do not remember any time this active.  Northern polar vortex...active southern jet in a Nina.

Bethlehem Pa in 1977-78 two giant storms after about a week apart. That was cool after many dry years.

But today in North Wales Pa...We have lots of snow and an active week ahead.

I have family...Hoboken to Richmond. Storms are coming.  

Of course after I post this...I am sure the models will all dry up

 

 

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whoa, I just saw the nam.  WTF??  That bitch is heavier and close to a snowstorm for even DC.  I mean, I don't expect snow, but it's a healthier, colder system.  But....

NAM....which has been pretty good as of late

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13 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12K 18Z NAM if this verifies will help make up for the first 30 years of my life living in the rip-off zone.

622486AD-2310-4EC8-B18F-5A8F9048186D.png

22C23FB4-E683-4756-B9F7-0BDC119AA4DA.png

88600886-EC3D-4D28-98A8-87623E365C56.png

DBB91632-A55E-4A0D-829A-7241554B4C07.png

That includes today and as such is not very revealing about the weekend 

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Just now, stormtracker said:

whoa, I just saw the nam.  WTF??

What you should be saying is, whoa, why am I looking at the NAM

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37 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That includes today and as such is not very revealing about the weekend 

WB 12K NAM 2 day total back to 1 am Friday so does not include Wave 1.

F89E968B-7636-40C4-8AF7-2B4CE7E010CA.png

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gfs might be a little better this run with the next week system.  still lifts the southern wave too soon, though.

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1 hour ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Check out the 850 temperatures.  They're above 0 nearly the entire time.  Not sure of any other levels.

ETA:  And south winds at 850 as well.

I guess my question is more about the general pattern being modeled...simply, why all the mixy cutters? Lol

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6 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The blocking is really helpful on the gfs B)

Never seen so many systems go straight north

We got 1040 highs that fold like a cheap suit. Models take the L almost due north  from MS 

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I don't need to tell y'all that La Plata is a snow town. Hmph. Back to light snow after period of sleet. A few pingers mixing in. Car tops and trash can lids BURIED. Recording a strong trace. 32/32.

Wrong thread. My bad. :rolleyes:

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4 minutes ago, diatae said:

I don't need to tell y'all that La Plata is a snow town. Hmph. Back to light snow after period of sleet. A few pingers mixing in. Car tops and trash can lids BURIED. Recording a strong trace. 32/32.

Ya probably want to put this in the other thread :)

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1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

That includes today and as such is not very revealing about the weekend 

I know it is the NAM but for us it is revealing as NAM for tonight and tomorrow had me at 0.9. 6.2 is basically all Saturday. Again for what it is worth given give the models and the results so far...

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Would precipitation here be freezing rain? How shallow should the freezing air near the surface be in order to make sleet / freezing rain?

I understand for sleet the freezing air should be deeper near the surface, I just don’t know generally how much.

4BF1AFEC-8468-4B2E-8D21-238FCD8F32C8.png

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1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I guess my question is more about the general pattern being modeled...simply, why all the mixy cutters? Lol

Yeah, realized more of what you meant after what I wrote, LOL!  Sorry about that.  Not quite sure how to answer that, though.  I kinda agree with @psuhoffman, the trend has been less interaction of the NS shortwave with the SS, and these systems have tended to end up farther south, rather than plowing right through a big high with strong blocking.  Or at least the CAD hangs on a lot more than indicated farther out in time.

Obviously, snow would be preferable for any of these potential events.  But absent that, I'd certainly prefer a sleet-fest (or ice) over cold rain any day!

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Oddly I am kind of looking forward to the ice event, which I normally dread given all the trees surrounding my house.. Probably because it doesn't appear to be even close to anything devastating, and more likely to be harmless and maybe add to the winter scene.

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5 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Hi, you must be new here.  My name is Randy.  Humble brag here, I was one of the founders of this place.  But that's not my claim to fame.  I coined the term Dr. No and have done nothing of note since.   I'm the administrator here.   I'd like to welcome you to the Mid Atlantic forum.  What day this week did you move here?

Holy shit. I literally laughed my ass off. 

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28 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Yeah, realized more of what you meant after what I wrote, LOL!  Sorry about that.  Not quite sure how to answer that, though.  I kinda agree with @psuhoffman, the trend has been less interaction of the NS shortwave with the SS, and these systems have tended to end up farther south, rather than plowing right through a big high with strong blocking.  Or at least the CAD hangs on a lot more than indicated farther out in time.

Obviously, snow would be preferable for any of these potential events.  But absent that, I'd certainly prefer a sleet-fest (or ice) over cold rain any day!

See I haven't experienced enough ice storms to know if I'd enjoy a bona-fide one...think I prefer snow (although I kinda like a glaze on top of snow though!)

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7 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EURO at end of run.  Icy mess, surface temps below freezing area wide.

A4324045-824C-44F0-9976-8B4577FA8724.png

Any snow to start?

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