Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
 Share

Recommended Posts

7 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro definitely took another step toward a more coastal-dominant solution.  OH Valley primary weaker and low on the coast takes over sooner.  Just a bit too late for us this round verbatim.  Another major ice storm.  

The euro sounding for Saturday is straight up freezing rain, not even a chance for sleet IMO. But it’s soundings for Tuesday don’t support anything but snow.

Scratch that. I didn’t realize that the sounding I was looking at was not the euro

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Why are the soundings in pivotal not matched to the model?

Dunno if this is why but if you just look at the 0 isotherm it’s a bit misleading because there is a huge area of right near 0 air at h85 and h7 south of the 0 isotherm on the map. 

eta: that screams a setup where heavy banding cools the column to snow and lighter precip is sleet 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s a gulf low hybrid though. It’s all about the latitude of the transfer. If it happens far enough south those are fine here. It’s not a west to east NS miller b. 

Interesting I never knew that actually. Others have chimed in the same. What latitude makes it ‘officially’ a hybrid? 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Dunno if this is why but if you just look at the 0 isotherm it’s a bit misleading because there is a huge area of right near 0 air at h85 and h7 south of the 0 isotherm on the map. 

eta: that screams a setup where heavy banding cools the column to snow and lighter precip is sleet 

Yeah it had me looking at Canadian soundings. Those soundings are snow all the way. I can’t see euro soundings. At least I don’t know how.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Wetbulbs88 said:

Interesting I never knew that actually. Others have chimed in the same. What latitude makes it ‘officially’ a hybrid? 

It’s about origin. The storm originated as a SS wave along the gulf but it tracks up west of the Apps initially then jumps to a secondary. That’s hybrid. Pure miller b us all NS. Typically a west to east NS wave that jumps to the coast. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Euro gives out another ice storm late next week.  3 ice storms in the same week would be something. 

Yeah this is kinda wild...I'd love to know what the large scale cause of all this is that the models are spitting out such icy solutions. Something the the TPV? Another reason? Hm...

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s about origin. The storm originated as a SS wave along the gulf but it tracks up west of the Apps initially then jumps to a secondary. That’s hybrid. Pure miller b us all NS. Typically a west to east NS wave that jumps to the coast. 

i bet what the euro shows now for tuesday will not resemble the map that occurs on Tuesday

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

26 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Is that the one that was looking like a cutter, or at least well northwest of us?  I think the GFS still had it that way, not sure, but yeah this would be a change.

yes now its not really that much of a cutter as just a late transfer and I expect it to continue to trend.   I keep pointing this out, and ERS did also, that guidance all season has continually wanted to phase systems to our west and over amplify them.  In reality the NS and SS have remained unphased with the SS waves typically riding the boundary along the eastern edge of the trough and transferring to the coastal baroclinic zone instead.  DC has failed for other reasons but cutters has not been one of them.  

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Better..

1613498400-5itLBZkQgkM.png

Definitely much better. Give us that primary low at the KY/VA border transferring to that southern most 1005mb low and were in business :mapsnow: that sub 100mb low near Erie PA can eat my shorts and get on outta here. That would annihilate our mid levels 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm already tired of modeled ice storms.  One is cool.  3, not so much. 

At least you won’t lose tons of sleep tracking them! Ice storms always seem to be the ones that pan out nearly verbatim from a week away.... 6-12+“ snowfall depictions? Not so much :lol:

  • Like 1
  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, jayyy said:

Definitely much better. Give us that primary low at the KY/VA border transferring to that southern most 1005mb low and were in business :mapsnow:

Not particularly enthused for here, but you NW folks might make out better. I really have no interest in sleet/freezing rain to rain at this juncture. The overall h5 pattern is significantly flawed, but not unworkable for the interior.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, jayyy said:

At least you won’t lose tons of sleep tracking them! Ice storms always seem to be the ones that pan out nearly verbatim from a week away.... 6-12+“ snowfall depictions? Not so much :lol:

Ice and rain storms and heat are like the sunrise and sunset here.  They are a LOCK.  You can set it and forget it, and not have a worry in the world about it failing.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...