ravensrule Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: That would be a brutal ice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris21 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: ICON showing the fail scenario mentioned...cold air scoured out...as storm approaches. Dang it... Lol, for next week? The 00z run I’m seeing has temps in the teens and low 20s. What’s your bar for cold? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, chris21 said: Lol, for next week? The 00z run I’m seeing has temps in the teens and low 20s. What’s your bar for cold? 6.9 degrees. When it hits 7 he flips over, i mean flips out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Look at temps. It would be a major ice storm Yes... but what happened to Saturday ice storm? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: 6.9 degrees. When it hits 7 he flips over, i mean flips out. You're getting me confused with another...I was just too hasty and forgot to check the temps (no zr/sleet shown on ICON) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, yoda said: Yes... but what happened to Saturday ice storm? wrong thread, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: That's a massive ice storm as depicted, Maestro. Fell on my face with this one...my apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Tuesday was mostly plain rain, wasn't it? See I can't tell on the ICON... It’s ice. Icon took a baby step towards the NAM though. RGEM continued in that camp also at 0z. Not even sure there would be a Tuesday storm on the rgem behind the rain Monday. It’s squashing that wave behind the rainstorm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just got my Bauers sharpened up today. Can’t wait for my neighbors to see me out there skating around our parking lot and taking slap shots off their windshields. 1 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s ice. Icon took a baby step towards the NAM though. RGEM continued in that camp also at 0z. Not even sure there would be a Tuesday storm on the rgem behind the rain Monday. It’s squashing that wave behind the rainstorm. What is this world coming to when we are relying on the NAM and RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 GFS is a disaster. Not even a trace of significant ice for next Tuesday. Its actuallly pretty warm considering where its been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Lol 1030mb HP on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 were going to fail on wave 1, 2,3,4,5 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just about time to turn out the lights on this supposedly great two weeks that was predicted on the models of snow and ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Gfs went that way too. Not good. Runs a wave out ahead Monday in front of the high. This prevents the high and the cold from coming across the top in front of the main wave. It turns into a cold chasing moisture which I like a LOT less then when we had a 1035 high over the top in front of the storm. Kinda didn’t like when NAm/RGEM showed hints at 18z but now everything’s going towards that progression. That is not the way we want it to to trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Gfs went that way too. Not good. Runs a wave out ahead Monday in front of the high. This prevents the high and the cold from coming across the top in front of the main wave. It turns into a cold chasing moisture which I like a LOT less then when we had a 1035 high over the top in front of the storm. Kinda didn’t like when NAm/RGEM showed hints at 18z but now everything’s going towards that progression. That is not the way we want it to to trend. Might be time to look to Thursday... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Gfs went that way too. Not good. Runs a wave out ahead Monday in front of the high. This prevents the high and the cold from coming across the top in front of the main wave. It turns into a cold chasing moisture which I like a LOT less then when we had a 1035 high over the top in front of the storm. Kinda didn’t like when NAm/RGEM showed hints at 18z but now everything’s going towards that progression. That is not the way we want it to to trend. everything trended 8-10 degrees warmer from 18z on the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Might be time to look to Thursday... Lot of time left but tonight’s trend is bad. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Might be time to look to Thursday... if tuesday is a disater--thursday will be worse. Winter is over 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: Lot of time left but tonight’s trend is bad. not ever a positive trend. Anytime we need a trend...we go 3 steps back. Not even 1 step. Im afraid winter is over as we fail next week(Hm's week) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Ji said: not ever a positive trend. Anytime we need a trend...we go 3 steps back. Not even 1 step. Im afraid winter is over as we fail next week(Hm's week) we all know we'll be checking for snow on the models till mid-April Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Para GFS laughs in our faces for Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Ji said: if tuesday is a disater--thursday will be worse. Winter is over I think if Thursday doesn't work...then from a historical standpoint, then we might be able to call it. Not winter has ever produced anything sizeable (that is at least 5") between February 21st-28th, and March is, well...March, lol So next week could be our last shot, I'm afraid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Ji said: everything trended 8-10 degrees warmer from 18z on the GFS It went to the idea the RGEM first picked up on then the NAM jumped on also. If we get a more amplified wave Monday ahead of the main storm it’s not good. That wave will keep the cold from getting in front of the Tuesday wave. The scenario I like was the tpv rolling across on top pulling the cold out ahead and then the gulf wave coming up. This new progression there is no space between the waves for the front to press east so everything just keeps running to our NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, Ji said: if tuesday is a disater--thursday will be worse. Winter is over Not that I care for ice but Would be a Major ice storm as depicted. Temps in the 20s NW of 95 with alot of qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It went to the idea the RGEM first picked up on then the NAM jumped on also. If we get a more amplified wave Monday ahead of the main storm it’s not good. That wave will keep the cold from getting in front of the Tuesday wave. The scenario I like was the tpv rolling across on top pulling the cold out ahead and then the gulf wave coming up. This new progression there is no space between the waves for the front to press east so everything just keeps running to our NW. Do you think this would influence Thursday too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Just now, psuhoffman said: It went to the idea the RGEM first picked up on then the NAM jumped on also. If we get a more amplified wave Monday ahead of the main storm it’s not good. That wave will keep the cold from getting in front of the Tuesday wave. The scenario I like was the tpv rolling across on top pulling the cold out ahead and then the gulf wave coming up. This new progression there is no space between the waves for the front to press east so everything just keeps running to our NW. Seasonal trends. Still 4 days out. My guess is it ends up less amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: It went to the idea the RGEM first picked up on then the NAM jumped on also. If we get a more amplified wave Monday ahead of the main storm it’s not good. That wave will keep the cold from getting in front of the Tuesday wave. The scenario I like was the tpv rolling across on top pulling the cold out ahead and then the gulf wave coming up. This new progression there is no space between the waves for the front to press east so everything just keeps running to our NW. RGEM and NAM really havent agreed on much this week.. them being lockstep even at that range seems to be a deadly combo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 There goes the HP out to sea on the GFS at 153... cant wait for my rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted February 12, 2021 Share Posted February 12, 2021 Canadian also agrees with the RGEM idea. Moderate rain on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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