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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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1 hour ago, DDweatherman said:

I’ll make a PSA since there are some that root for icing events. Check out video footage of Texas, and tell me you are rooting for ice.

Just probably lost a dozen lives and dozens more seriously injured. This is a weather forum, but it’s just food for thought. And they didn’t even really get much accretion. 

Yeah, I have very mixed feelings about ice storms. They can be stunningly beautiful but also incredibly destructive. Experienced a big one on Long Island in 1978 or 1979, it completely destroyed the power grid and we had no power for a week. No wood stove, no backup generator, no fun! But it was spectacularly beautiful. People up here (Rochester area) STILL talk about the big one that hit in 1991. Wasn't living here then, and we moved up here just after the latest destructive one in 2003. That one was nowhere near as bad and we are now past due.

If you can thread the needle and get enough ice to coat all the trees but not enough to bring them all down, that's ideal. 1.5" of ice is too much and I hope you all don't get hit with that.  The set up does look concerning but plenty of time for things to sort out.

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13 minutes ago, CAPE said:

lol did you read the second part of my post?

How about this- "traditional, typical Nino"

Personally I don’t think enso has been driving our patterns as much as it used to since 2016. I think the lack of gradient muted the ninos and the warmth all around it muted the Ninas some. There have been a lot of atypical patterns per enso the last 2 Nina/nino cycles 

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Nice AFD from Mount Holly on the "potential" for the upcoming week-

An active weather pattern is expected to continue through next week as two additional storms affect the region over the course of the work week. The clash of air masses over the CONUS through next week is quite impressive. Extreme cold air over the central US, largely driven by a strong -AO and fragmented polar vortex, will collide with much warmer air over the Southeast as we see the development of persistent Southeast ridging, which is favored by the La Nina ENSO state. The strong baroclinicity between these two air masses will keep the storm track active with weather systems impacting the mid- Atlantic about every other day. This will be a difficult pattern to forecast, as the presence of so many systems in short order (including from the current week) is playing havoc with the models. In addition, the thermal profiles of these storms will be challenging as the increasingly strong Southeast ridging will likely favor warmer outcomes with time, but with still a lot of cold air nearby which is often slow to scour out of the low levels. Of the two systems expected this week, the one Monday night into Tuesday currently appears to be the "colder" of the two, with a better chance for more warm air to become involved with the second system moving in towards Thursday. However, both of these systems appear to have the potential to produce large areas of mixed precipitation, with various ptypes likely including opportunities for freezing rain.

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5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It looks like it went down because we lost the snow from overnight. But if you adjust for that it actually went up like 1-2” NW of 95 

did it really? These maps for the 24hr period that the Tuesday storm would mostly happen in look fairly identical. If you were referring to a difference between 12z and 00z I'd agree more but I'd say closer to .5"-1".

12z:

1613498400-GBH2NnlRbnE.png

06z:

1613498400-SMCmIaNftL4.png

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7 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

RGEM is a rainstorm for all of us Sunday/Monday. WTF is that?

Seems to be the system PSU mentioned that really hurts our chances of letting the HP funnel some colder air in. I think you can see the response from that system being much weaker on the NAM. Check out hr 84 for the NAM, core of the TPV cold is a fair bit farther west of the GFS yet the 850s are still more favorable. 

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