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Feb Long Range Discussion (Day 3 and beyond) - MERGED


WinterWxLuvr
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1613725200-ohzOhwDCd0Y.png&key=78e79a3bad92366eb8c52acd376012df0cd46e8265cadd82be99f27078a92c5c
had to share cause I thought it was funny... probably a legit ice storm in the blue ridge but in most places where people actually live a lot of this is during daylight and temps are only low 30s, so color me skeptical it would accrete that bad.
Maybe its not going to be low 30s
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Just now, Ji said:
1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:
1613725200-ohzOhwDCd0Y.png&key=78e79a3bad92366eb8c52acd376012df0cd46e8265cadd82be99f27078a92c5c
had to share cause I thought it was funny... probably a legit ice storm in the blue ridge but in most places where people actually live a lot of this is during daylight and temps are only low 30s, so color me skeptical it would accrete that bad.

Maybe its not going to be low 30s

trust me, kinda hope it isn't. i didn't get upgraded to an ISW so I'm ready to try again.

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00z EPS mean is a minor push SE with the snowfall compared to 18z... not a big push... but a def SE push nonetheless

RE: 2mT

00z EPS mean has everyone in 20s (except extreme NW LWX CWA in the upper teens) at 102 (06z THUR) and 108 (12z THUR).  Everybody is still fine at 114 (18z THUR) except for S MD/EZF which are at 32/33.  At 120 (00z FRI), I95 corridor is 32 degree dividing line.  126 (06z FRI) BR is the 32 degree dividing line... mid 30s along i95 and around 40 in St. Mary's county.  132 (12z FRI) 32 degree dividing line is out by i81 corridor, BR is mid 30s, i95 upper 30s, S MD low 40s.  138 (18z FRI) everyone above freezing -- upper 30s i81 corridor with 40-45 everyone else

ETA:  QPF is 0.5-0.75 area wide by 126

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2 hours ago, Ji said:

All models give us a major winter storm and all have trended better since psu meltdown

I’m Jedi mind tricking this storm. 
 

but seriously what do you care if I’m not on board. It’s gonna do what it’s gonna do regardless. But I have my reasons to be skeptical. 
 

1. it’s a progressive wave with no blocking. History says those typically trend north so needed a south trend (or for the coldest model to hold with absolutely no north shift) from this range is not ideally where we want to be. 

2. even on guidance that is “snowy” the track is precarious. Tonight’s euro pulled off something rare. When I see that on long range guidance I’m skeptical.  That track is not typically a big snow producer here. 

3.  I’m not a fan of ice. It’s snow or bust. If I had any interest in ice I’d probably be more excited by this setup. This setup does have icing potential. I’m just skeptical of a significant snow.  
 

4. the only reason I may have been on board with ice was to protect my snowpack. Snow otg is my number 1 thing. I Know you don’t care. That’s fine. But one thing I love about up here is we can keep snowcover for extended periods up here. But now that it looks like my beautiful snowpack will be wiped out by a 45 degree rainstorm Tuesday (yea I’m kinda bitter about that) it’s hard to get excited by some slop Thursday. I’m very likely to end up Friday with way less on the ground then I have now. So it’s a net negative!  
 

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FROM LARRY COSGROVE

This is a formula for entrenched, low-latitude cold and cases of heavy snow and ice. But given that the first piece of energy in the series will be further north, the scenario I have constructed is for a Colorado cyclone to progress eastward into Virginia, then curl up along the coastline of the Mid-Atlantic, New England and Maritime Province. Timing is uncertain, but using the ECMWF ensemble package, between February 25-28 should fit.
 
I do not think we get out of the rest of calendar winter without yet another major weather event. If the next two in the series, acting with a motherlode in the Great Lakes region like we have currently, an area from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard (probably minus the Deep South, but you never know....) could be hit with major snow and mixed precipitation potential. Given that the 10MB circumpolar vortex is again unified and deepening, I think that we start to see meaningful warm-ups below 40 N Latitude in the last week of March. With thunderstorm threats.

But it's going to take some time, this time!
 
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19 minutes ago, howrdcounty snow said:

FROM LARRY COSGROVE

This is a formula for entrenched, low-latitude cold and cases of heavy snow and ice. But given that the first piece of energy in the series will be further north, the scenario I have constructed is for a Colorado cyclone to progress eastward into Virginia, then curl up along the coastline of the Mid-Atlantic, New England and Maritime Province. Timing is uncertain, but using the ECMWF ensemble package, between February 25-28 should fit.
 
I do not think we get out of the rest of calendar winter without yet another major weather event. If the next two in the series, acting with a motherlode in the Great Lakes region like we have currently, an area from the Great Plains to the Eastern Seaboard (probably minus the Deep South, but you never know....) could be hit with major snow and mixed precipitation potential. Given that the 10MB circumpolar vortex is again unified and deepening, I think that we start to see meaningful warm-ups below 40 N Latitude in the last week of March. With thunderstorm threats.

But it's going to take some time, this time!
 

Meaningful warmup in late March?  Color me shocked.  Lol.

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