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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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12 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Maybe I'm missing something, but this is barely even double digits, if that, for most. Would not call it a crush job. It needs to stay tucked more NW so it snows much longer. Duration is just too short. It's trying to get there, though.

You realize that everything is relative, right?

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

You realize that everything is relative, right?

"Barely even double digits" qualifies as a crush job this and any other year around here.

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16 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Maybe I'm missing something, but this is barely even double digits, if that, for most. Would not call it a crush job. It needs to stay tucked more NW so it snows much longer. Duration is just too short. It's trying to get there, though.

Yeah. I guess I should have stipulated based on where you live. 

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I’m at the LOL stage with both systems next week. Who the hell knows. And if we are all honest that probably sums up how we all feel.

But that run was sweet. Only double digits though. Not really a crush job. Need triple digits for that.

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1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I’m at the LOL stage with both systems next week. Who the hell knows. And if we are all honest that probably sums up how we all feel.

But that run was sweet. Only double digits though. Not really a crush job. Need triple digits for that.

I need MINIMUM triple digits for me to be interested.   If snow totals aren't the equivalent of the price of a used '09 VW Passat, I'm out.

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Just now, stormtracker said:

I need MINIMUM triple digits for me to be interested.   If snow totals aren't the equivalent of the price of a used '09 VW Passat, I'm out.

Would that even make double digits?? :lol:

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12 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I need MINIMUM triple digits for me to be interested.   If snow totals aren't the equivalent of the price of a used '09 VW Passat, I'm out.

Did I accidentally wander into the Snoqualmie Pass subforum?

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32 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

Not bad but not quite the crushing that 12z was.  This includes Monday’s “event”.  
 

 

26562306-2E04-41EF-A595-C2393F7A5E9C.png

woah--major drop. Looks like alot of members now agree with european

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22 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

Oh no not another AO block, make it stop, the humanity! 

5A622C81-A451-47F6-8D28-F3B3397DCC62.png

Charge your phone

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27 minutes ago, ErinInTheSky said:

Nobody mentioned but that first round has .5" of freezing rain through MD. .5" and above is defined as "crippling".

 

IULc4Tr.png

Euro isn't except for possibly Garrett co -- verbatim only like .10"  on avg .Mostly depicts a snow/sleet in those areas  ^ fwiw

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25 minutes ago, Ji said:

woah--major drop. Looks like alot of members now agree with european

Not for the reason you think. Gefs shifted north quite a bit. This captures most of the event.  Look where the max is centered now. 
34BBF7AF-9102-487A-BB65-91553BA47E3A.thumb.png.b071fa6b78c2964f2c4b62abf683cb6f.png

Mean qpf did drop slightly in central VA but because there is slightly more spread where members place the max precip. And the nature of this setup with the extreme compressed flow to the NE but with the upper low causing the system coming west to east pretty far north means it’s a fairly narrow zone of high impact. Not like a typical climbing the coast event.  
 

But the spread increased to the north. There are now several members that get good snow north of Philly when almost none did before. And the snow mean decreased in VA for the opposite reason as the euro.  
D29C9ECE-DC60-412E-B894-9EB8A342F96B.thumb.png.904c757657ec649e11b015c4b953dbc7.png

RAIN lol.  Its hard with timing differences to catch them all in one panel but there are a cluster of members that are so amped it in most or all of VA.  There are even a couple members that give me rain.  And some that come across so far north it miller b’s us and we’re pretty dry.  
 

I count 11 flush hit members for the DC area.  I count 9 members that are either south or weak  but I count 10 members where snow is limited because it’s too far north and rains or simply jumps over us because the upper low comes across too north to hook up with the southern wave until too late for us.  So the threat of a miss to the north is now the greater probability on the gefs.  So it may have decreased snow totals in VA but not for the same reason as the eps.  It trended a little too amped in some members!  

 

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This probability map also shows it. You had about a 45% chance of getting 3”+ at 12z and you still do at 18z. The difference was at 12z the 55% choice you didn’t was almost exclusively from a miss south. Now your equally likely for it to miss north. 
18z

5F12AA92-62E4-4EF1-B1E5-3B3DE9025DCD.thumb.png.68b3f5e47285063ff0e8ab2ee809abc2.png

12z
AD1B6307-F85F-4223-A5CB-4E9A7AAD7B90.thumb.png.02a345e963e99cc1a1b59e6ec8cdbe71.png
there is more spread now due to a cluster of north track members. 

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9 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

Anyone looking at 18z Euro for trends on the strength of the low getting ejected from out west? Or was it bad so we did not see it? 

7B034D05-5402-4635-AD7E-036F447E2B88.gif.d289fe537fea1c18cd52630c936f84e3.gif
it’s a little too soon to make definitive projections when it ends at 90. EPS goes to 144 but not out yet. 
 

the energy that will become the storm along the UT AZ border is closed and more consolidated that’s good Imo. 
 

The wave in the Ohio valley is a little more progressive creating more space. Slightly more ridging ahead. That’s good.

I have no idea what to make of the TPV being further south in Canada. If the euro still rotates it north like previous runs it’s irrelevant.  If it gets in behind it could help. If it comes across on top it would hurt. 
 

Overall I would take the 18z over the 12z look but it’s hard to say that early. Anyone else wanna chime in?

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EPS has a more consolidated SW in the south west though 90 and better heights out front.  That ULL in Canada is further south but like you said to early to guess.

C251320C-B706-419E-8178-3B254C72908F.png

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