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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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Just now, stormtracker said:

When I came up with the name Dr. No for the Euro, I had no idea how much of tool of despair it truly is.  No model, and I mean NO model kills the mood better and quicker.   

when the GFS and other JV models show a snowstorm and we get all giddy at Lunch...the euro always spoils the snow.

Then when the GFS and other JV models so no snow....and ruin our lunch....the Euro gives us a mercy run....before destroying us and caving to the GFS

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Just now, JakkelWx said:

They're outliers. All the other models are further north. 

when it comes to big East coast snowstorms...you dont want to the euro to be an outlier

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Just now, Ji said:

when it comes to big East coast snowstorms...you dont want to the euro to be an outlier

then UGH.

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

well its game over then because Euro is not going to falter witthis this SW thats only 78 hours out from ejecting

 

1 minute ago, Ji said:

we dont have a luxury of saying this is still 7 days away because really its 3 days away

It was an improvement from 0z. The track of the upper feature is perfect.  It dies but follow the precip associated with that and it’s headed right for us. Problem is it was too weak. But that’s not some huge change. It needs to be slightly more amplified with that exact track. The surface low is a response to arhat upper low do don’t worry about that. If that upper feature was stronger you get a stronger more tucked surface low and that precip coming from the west doesn’t die. There is a critical mass type level of amplitude the wave has to reach and this run was just a bit under it. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

 

It was an improvement from 0z. The track of the upper feature is perfect.  It dies but follow the precip associated with that and it’s headed right for us. Problem is it was too weak. But that’s not some huge change. It needs to be slightly more amplified with that exact track. The surface low is a response to arhat upper low do don’t worry about that. If that upper feature was stronger you get a stronger more tucked surface low and that precip coming from the west doesn’t die. There is a critical mass type level of amplitude the wave has to reach and this run was just a bit under it. 

Now I was wondering if it was an improvement...because that run a bit of snow still got up here, right? I thought that was still better than 0z as well...but I thought it was just my snow weenie brain trying to find something, lol I guess tonight's 0z is gonna be telling if we see the euro trend better...

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1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Now I was wondering if it was an improvement...because that run a bit of snow still got up here, right? I thought that was still better than 0z as well...but I thought it was just my snow weenie brain trying to find something, lol I guess tonight's 0z is gonna be telling if we see the euro trend better...

Debatable as I’m looking at it more. That track was north. It didn’t miss is south it just died. But the wave was a bit weaker and faster which offset. Those trends need to stop though. 

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9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

It was an improvement from 0z. The track of the upper feature is perfect.  It dies but follow the precip associated with that and it’s headed right for us. Problem is it was too weak. But that’s not some huge change. It needs to be slightly more amplified with that exact track. The surface low is a response to arhat upper low do don’t worry about that. If that upper feature was stronger you get a stronger more tucked surface low and that precip coming from the west doesn’t die. There is a critical mass type level of amplitude the wave has to reach and this run was just a bit under it. 

One of the problems that is just as important as the weaker ridge behind it is the upper pattern over New England won't allow enough room for a shortwave ridge to form ahead of the trough which keeps it from strengthening and in a sense shears it a bit while also reducing the upper level divergence in advance of the trough compared to what would happen with more room and a better shortwave ridge.  That prevents our surface low from getting very far north.  At least that's my take.  Weaken or shove the troughiness over the northeast a little farther east and we'd be OK.  At least I think we'd be OK. Slow the eastward movement of the trof would help do the same thing. 

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52 minutes ago, Ji said:

the best model to see how we are going to do is the NC subforums

Looking forward to the shut out, at least the yard wont be muddy here

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5 minutes ago, usedtobe said:

One of the problems that is just as important as the weaker ridge behind it is the upper pattern over New England won't allow enough room for a shortwave ridge to form ahead of the trough which keeps it from strengthening and in a sense shears it a bit while also reducing the upper level divergence in advance of the trough compared to what would happen with more room and a better shortwave ridge.  That prevents our surface low from getting very far north.  At least that's my take.  Weaken or shove the troughiness over the northeast a little farther east and we'd be OK.  At least I think we'd be OK. Slow the eastward movement of the trof would help do the same thing. 

The biggest change in the euro from 3 runs ago when it had that very nice solution is it sped up the wave each of the last 2 runs tightening the spacing in front of it. The gfs and cmc ensembles (which both bullseye our area) have a slower progression so they are able to get more ridging ahead of the wave as it crosses the Midwest. 

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14 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

The euro and ukie are all by themselves. I don't buy their solutions. Maybe if those models were more reliable but they have lost some of their reliability.

I don't understand this sentiment of lost reliability. Euro still crushes all in anomaly correlation extremely consistently. 

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We need some good news. Cmc ensembles.  
389FFD08-D68A-4AA3-8323-41147C367915.thumb.png.d52b487094fc10d0a6a56e63c1e27f83.png

biggest difference I see compared with the euro is a slower progression.  Cmc ensembles even hints the initial wave in the south might escape and the storm forms along a second wave as the upper low slowly advances.  The euro races it across before the flow has a chance to relax behind the early week system  

 

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4 minutes ago, DCAlexandria said:

UsedTube is back! Love it.

Well occasionally.  Unfortunately,  the Euro ensemble mean for the 28th looks pretty bad.  I haven't given up on the 28th but would feel better if the Euro and UKMET were on my side than the Canadian and GFS. 

 

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Very noticeable step back from 0z on the EPS.  It certainly favors a further south track.

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12z EPS.. yeah it doesn't look good. Too far south. The model with the overamped bias is the furthest south. Lemme tell ya folks, I hate to say it, but this probably isn't gonna end up how we want it.

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Just now, LP08 said:

Very noticeable step back from 0z on the EPS.  It certainly favors a further south track.

Seems to diverge from the op, which wasn’t south.  It was just weak.  

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

I mean is it snow for anyone or just some weak dry heave like a cat bringing up a fur ball?

It’s snow, just not that much...

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4 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

I mean is it snow for anyone or just some weak dry heave like a cat bringing up a fur ball?

It’s not great but if you blend the guidance from GFS, GEFS, CMC, GEPS, and EPS, we’re still in the game for something.

6A16112E-AA87-443F-BB05-D567E1169AB5.png

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2 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

 

6A16112E-AA87-443F-BB05-D567E1169AB5.png

that def looks like the color of a regurgitated ball of cat hair

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Just now, leesburg 04 said:

That looks like a historic snowfall for Rose Hill I think

pass.  not even enough to cover the onions.  I can still forage.

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Just now, H2O said:

pass.  not even enough to cover the onions.  I can still forage.

Don't forget your hoe. Those winter roots and snow yams are a bitch to find otherwise. 

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1 minute ago, mappy said:

Don't forget your hoe. Those winter roots and snow yams are a bitch to find otherwise. 

Its gold now so I can hoe more tiles and use less energy.  Lots of sashimi tho to recoup health

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4 minutes ago, H2O said:

Its gold now so I can hoe more tiles and use less energy.  Lots of sashimi tho to recoup health

Sebastian is envious

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