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WxUSAF

January Storm Term Threat Discussions (Day 3 - Day 7)

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Just now, stormtracker said:

Confluence is better, but nothing like Euro.  Just gotta hope the GFS is doing what it did last time...underdoing it and strengthened as we get closer

gfs is going to stubborn its way into the euro(hopefully). It may take a few more runs that we would like

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

gfs is going to stubborn its way into the euro(hopefully). It may take a few more runs that we would like

JI I really believe GFS comes around to the other models, namely the Euro. Each run the confluence gets just a tick better and better. Heavy snows breaking out down my way at 108/114 headed your way.

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gfs tricking south like a slow drip but lost the silly snow to rain idea on the front end

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Just now, Buddy1987 said:

JI I really believe GFS comes around to the other models, namely the Euro. Each run the confluence gets just a tick better and better. Heavy snows breaking out down my way at 108/114 headed your way.

It's moving toward that point.  At least it didn't get any worse.

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GFS has 4-6" from the WAA alone, with more to the North of us as the costal gets cranking. Def a step in the right direction, this feels like Saturday's trends for the Thursday event where the GFS slowly sank SE but we had that glimmer of hope

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GFS is a step in the right direction both aloft and at the surface. Nothing earth shattering but it's good to see. 

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Not to beat a dead horse but it took another step south (continues the trend of the last several runs).  That's all I wanted to see from it.

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Just now, Cobalt said:

GFS has 4-6" from the WAA alone, with more to the North of us as the costal gets cranking. Def a step in the right direction, this feels like Saturday's trends for the Thursday event where the GFS slowly sank SE but we had that glimmer of hope

Last 3 GFS runs the system has sank south .  A couple more ticks and we will be In the coastal once it gets cranking.

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I feel like the GFS chased the convection off of the NC coast on this run. You would think the low transfer would happen closer to the benchmark based off H5. Euro depiction makes more sense at the moment. A lot of time here for this to resolve itself. 

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Just now, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

I feel like the GFS chased the convection off of the NC coast on this run. You would think the low transfer would happen closer to the benchmark based off H5. Euro depiction makes more sense at the moment. A lot of time here for this to resolve itself. 

Yep, just wanted to see the slow evolution in the right direction. It’s starting to follow the King

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2 minutes ago, Blizzard-on-GFS said:

I feel like the GFS chased the convection off of the NC coast on this run. You would think the low transfer would happen closer to the benchmark based off H5. Euro depiction makes more sense at the moment. A lot of time here for this to resolve itself. 

I really want to believe that a run that shows 24” in mby makes more sense than a run that shows 3-6.  

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GFS has MBY at or below freezing from late tomorrow evening until the snow changes to rain late Sunday. Ok then...

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was hoping to see more than a tick to the euro. Para and GFS arent even close....maybe 00z when they ingest new data lol

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

The "disaster" para is a thump of 4-8" then dry slot.  Hardly a disaster.

Euro was similar minus the -

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historically, the european has dominated the GFS in East Coast big snowstorms....euro has had 3 runs in a row in its wheelhouse 4-5 days

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I'm sure everyone in the forum will be up for the King later tonight. Even if the alarms are set for 5:35am.

Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk

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gfs-deterministic-ma-snow_96hr_inch-2288800.thumb.png.e612f2dd24cb5deefd8684927457aef1.png

Definite improvement. Kuchera is even higher, and we get into the costal action this time. It's very obviously bleeding to the Euro. Even then.. if you find this a disaster, you need to move to a place that gets way more snow, preferably out of this subforum's range. 

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PARA handled the Thursday non event even more poorly than the GFS.....   I cant take it seriously at all

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Not the kind of perfect run we saw on the euro but some aspects seem better. Seems like the GFS is more likely to cave to the euro rn.

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