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dendrite

Winter Banter and General Disco 2

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

BOX must be getting smoked. 

Looked that way.  Matt and Brett would be in line for that one

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18 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I worked in real estate for years before this. I don't see this market cooling off for years. Maybe even 5+ years I'd be willing to say. Area is set up for sellers in the long term despite local construction boom. More businesses coming to Boston than leaving. Continuous surge of people coming to Boston for school. Excellent place to live even if you work from home. I could see condos struggling in large complexes in less than five years. If your home is single double or triple decker, there will be a buyer. Period. 

Dont know about 5 years, these boom periods generally last 5 years and we're almost 5 years now. People have short memories but I'll admit this latest boom is different 

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If you're someone who's not a fan of cold weather, chances are you won't be taking any trips to the Russian city of Yakutsk anytime soon. The city is currently in the midst of an abnormally long period of harsh subzero cold that is considered unusual even for Siberia's standards.

The temperature in portions of the Yakutia region of eastern Russia, where Yakutsk is located, dropped below 40 degrees below zero Fahrenheit (40 degrees below zero Celsius) during the middle of December and hasn't climbed above that level since -- making this one of the longest stretches of subzero cold in at least 14 years, according to The Associated Press.

Outside of a brief "warmup" to around 24 below zero F (31 below zero C) for the first couple of days of January, the city of Yakutsk, located just south of the Arctic Circle, has recorded both high and low temperatures below 30 below zero F (34 below zero C) since Dec. 8, 2020.

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2 hours ago, DavisStraight said:

Dont know about 5 years, these boom periods generally last 5 years and we're almost 5 years now. People have short memories but I'll admit this latest boom is different 

I should specify I'm speaking strictly within 128.

I don't see any of the major factors of this boom changing. A pandemic has even had zero effect, you could certainly say positive due to low interest rates. Those will stay long and fuel this nationally. Will cool off on that level, but the Boston market will shrug that off. Only negative effects I can see? A bit of a backlog in permitting and zoning board related activities that slows things down, which may be good to extend the market. I don't see the large scale urban flight we had at some points after other Civil unrest. We are a tech/bio/financial hub. All booming, and no foreseeable issues. 

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3 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I should specify I'm speaking strictly within 128.

I don't see any of the major factors of this boom changing. A pandemic has even had zero effect, you could certainly say positive due to low interest rates. Those will stay long and fuel this nationally. Will cool off on that level, but the Boston market will shrug that off. Only negative effects I can see? A bit of a backlog in permitting and zoning board related activities that slows things down, which may be good to extend the market. I don't see the large scale urban flight we had at some points after other Civil unrest. We are a tech/bio/financial hub. All booming, and no foreseeable issues. 

Even in 2009 Boston shrugged off the downturn and my condo never lost money. Ended up making some change off it to put towards an updated kitchen in my current house when we bought in 2013. I lived right down the st from you on Elmer road haha. 

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Agree. Inside 128 is soon to be untouchable for the average Joe. Woburn was one of the last “affordable” cities. Now, a full gut job 3 BR Cape style home exceeds $500k. Updated homes $700k+. 
 

By 2030, any move in ready home within 128 will require $1M+ just to enter the market. 

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3 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Agree. Inside 128 is soon to be untouchable for the average Joe. Woburn was one of the last “affordable” cities. Now, a full gut job 3 BR Cape style home exceeds $500k. Updated homes $700k+. 
 

By 2030, any move in ready home within 128 will require $1M+ just to enter the market. 

Absolutely brutal. The service level people take it on the chin. More homelessness.  San Francisco east. Enjoy 

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33 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I should specify I'm speaking strictly within 128.

I don't see any of the major factors of this boom changing. A pandemic has even had zero effect, you could certainly say positive due to low interest rates. Those will stay long and fuel this nationally. Will cool off on that level, but the Boston market will shrug that off. Only negative effects I can see? A bit of a backlog in permitting and zoning board related activities that slows things down, which may be good to extend the market. I don't see the large scale urban flight we had at some points after other Civil unrest. We are a tech/bio/financial hub. All booming, and no foreseeable issues. 

I agree with that, that area is certainly different than where I work in central Mass and western Mass is a different market then cent Mass.

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4 minutes ago, DavisStraight said:

I agree with that, that area is certainly different than where I work in central Mass and western Mass is a different market then cent Mass.

Central mass is on quite a long term upswing I think

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2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Absolutely brutal. The service level people take it on the chin. More homelessness.  San Francisco east. Enjoy 

Boston will never have san frans homeless problem. San Francisco is out out of control along with southern California in that regard. Even if Boston had higher prices than San Francisco our climate alone would limit the amount of people who can live outside.  The homeless here are very unfortunate but also some of the toughest people I've ever seen.

The service workers will move further away. Many now come from southern New Hampshire or central mass. 

This is unfortunate but also a sign of a healthy economy and a city that people want to live in.

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18 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Agree. Inside 128 is soon to be untouchable for the average Joe. Woburn was one of the last “affordable” cities. Now, a full gut job 3 BR Cape style home exceeds $500k. Updated homes $700k+. 
 

By 2030, any move in ready home within 128 will require $1M+ just to enter the market. 

Soon?  It’s been there for 15-20yrs.  Not sure the salaries of the people I have done work for, but most of them are above my pay grade.  My guess is combined family income is well north of $250k to just touch the $600-700k homes and go up from there for the million plus ones.

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Metro west 495 belt is the new 128 belt.  Some communities are already at levels of the 128 belt but give it another 10-20 years and they’ll be there.  We have new homes we’re designing that will be starting at $800k and up in the next year or so.

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1 minute ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Soon?  It’s been there for 15-20yrs.  Not sure the salaries of the people I have done work for, but most of them are above my pay grade.  My guess is combined family income is well north of $250k to just touch the $600-700k homes and go up from there for the million plus ones.

You’re probably right. My sister and BIL got into Reading (just outside 128) for under $380k in 2009. Old Capes on their street are now selling for ~$500k only to be demolished to put a 3500 sq ft new construction in its place. Their neighbors two doors down just purchased one of these for $1.3M!  

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2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Metro west 495 belt is the new 128 belt.  Some communities are already at levels of the 128 belt but give it another 10-20 years and they’ll be there.  We have new homes we’re designing that will be starting at $800k and up in the next year or so.

Metro Boston is quickly becoming the Bay Area. Untouchable!  

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4 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

Metro west 495 belt is the new 128 belt.  Some communities are already at levels of the 128 belt but give it another 10-20 years and they’ll be there.  We have new homes we’re designing that will be starting at $800k and up in the next year or so.

Our little 3 bedroom in Holliston built in 1966 has gone up like 100k+ in 4 years since we bought it. We bought it for 345k and most appraisals would put it at 450 now. It’s insane. 

All the new construction single family homes around here are going for 700+ and most of them over 800. 

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54 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I should specify I'm speaking strictly within 128.

I don't see any of the major factors of this boom changing. A pandemic has even had zero effect, you could certainly say positive due to low interest rates. Those will stay long and fuel this nationally. Will cool off on that level, but the Boston market will shrug that off. Only negative effects I can see? A bit of a backlog in permitting and zoning board related activities that slows things down, which may be good to extend the market. I don't see the large scale urban flight we had at some points after other Civil unrest. We are a tech/bio/financial hub. All booming, and no foreseeable issues. 

There’s been a large increase in sales outside of Boston.  People are moving out of the city to escape the congestion.  Metro Boston does have issues with affordable housing but we are better equipped to deal with the issue compared to other places.  Apartments are becoming a huge boon along the 495 belt.  Feel good knowing you live in a market that is less susceptible to market downturns.  We have a broad spectrum of industries that can weather a lot of downward market trends.  We have a great hub of education, sciences, and finances that feed a broad spectrum of fields.  No better place to live in the US IMO. 

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20 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Boston will never have san frans homeless problem. San Francisco is out out of control along with southern California in that regard. Even if Boston had higher prices than San Francisco our climate alone would limit the amount of people who can live outside.  The homeless here are very unfortunate but also some of the toughest people I've ever seen.

The service workers will move further away. Many now come from southern New Hampshire or central mass. 

This is unfortunate but also a sign of a healthy economy and a city that people want to live in.

I don't know if I agree. Homeless counts have exploded by my estimation. I don't see anything ending that immediately. Low income units are required over 6 units. Id estimate half of Boston's rehab and flips are below 6 units for the exact reason. I worked on a project deep in dorchester where the developer owned back to back parcels of land. Both large. Instead of building 12-16 units, he built two 6 unit buildings. One year apart. By law no low income units were required. The ironic thing is the two 6 unit buildings are more likely to be approved because they are built to look like triple Deckers and better fit the footprint of the neighborhood. 

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1 minute ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I don't know if I agree. Homeless counts have exploded by my estimation. I don't see anything ending that immediately. Low income units are required over 6 units. Id estimate half of Boston's rehab and flips are below 6 units for the exact reason. I worked on a project deep in dorchester where the developer owned back to back parcels of land. Both large. Instead of building 12-16 units, he built two 6 unit buildings. One year apart. By law no low income units were required. The ironic thing is the two 6 unit buildings are more likely to be approved because they are built to look like triple Deckers and better fit the footprint of the neighborhood. 

I never said Boston didn't  have a homelessness problem. What i was pointing out is that Boston will never be San Francisco. San Francisco and parts of L.A. county are completely out of control, but a big reason why is climate. A climate we don't  and hopefully will never have.

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6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Our little 3 bedroom in Holliston built in 1966 has gone up like 100k+ in 4 years since we bought it. We bought it for 345k and most appraisals would put it at 450 now. It’s insane. 

All the new construction single family homes around here are going for 700+ and most of them over 800. 

It’s the same just about everywhere right now.  Housing stocks for sale are at levels we have not seen in a long time.  My wife and I are kicking ourselves for balking at pulling the trigger on moving to North Attleboro.  We had everything lined up to sign a P&S to build a home with a builder I work with and Covid spooked us and we didn’t know was going to happen and whether or not we’d have our jobs still.  Move forward 9-10mo and the 46 lots went from opening sales to having reservations on all of them.  They were starting in the low 5’s and they are now in the low 6’s.  Sucks but we’re not dwelling on it and are pushing to get an addition added to our existing house.

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32 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Boston will never have san frans homeless problem. San Francisco is out out of control along with southern California in that regard. Even if Boston had higher prices than San Francisco our climate alone would limit the amount of people who can live outside.  The homeless here are very unfortunate but also some of the toughest people I've ever seen.

The service workers will move further away. Many now come from southern New Hampshire or central mass. 

This is unfortunate but also a sign of a healthy economy and a city that people want to live in.

Wow I could go into a very long rant but I won't. 

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1 minute ago, 8611Blizz said:

I never said Boston didn't  have a homelessness problem. What i was pointing out is that Boston will never be San Francisco. San Francisco and parts of L.A. county are completely out of control, but a big reason why is climate. A climate we don't  and hopefully will never have.

I see what you're saying. Sometimes I misread because I'm watching Netflix at the same time. :lol: I totally agree with you. I'm just so worried about this next generation of lower income bostonians. A lot have cashed in on their family 3 decker. For many, leaving the state is the best option. Kinda sad for some of the young kids who may want to live here, but have more of a blue collar background. 

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22 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Our little 3 bedroom in Holliston built in 1966 has gone up like 100k+ in 4 years since we bought it. We bought it for 345k and most appraisals would put it at 450 now. It’s insane. 

All the new construction single family homes around here are going for 700+ and most of them over 800. 

Friend bought new const. in holliston. Absolutely beautiful, but ya very expensive town- but good schools etc...Great place to live.

One thing we need to remember when talking home prices is the per month mortgage pmt is basically unch even before inflation since the 80’s. Although our houses are bigger and less people live in them. That’s probably more at a national level tho but still.

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9 minutes ago, DotRat_Wx said:

I see what you're saying. Sometimes I misread because I'm watching Netflix at the same time. :lol: I totally agree with you. I'm just so worried about this next generation of lower income bostonians. A lot have cashed in on their family 3 decker. For many, leaving the state is the best option. Kinda sad for some of the young kids who may want to live here, but have more of a blue collar background. 

Yeah its very tough for people without property around here. City's around here are trying with  more affordable units required for new developments and even requiring that developments be bigger so they can build more units. 

It will at some point burn itself out.  People will decide they don't  need to be here for many different reasons, reasons we probably can't  even guess at now.  Happens everywhere on a long enough time scale.

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9 minutes ago, 8611Blizz said:

Yeah its very tough for people without property around here. City's around here are trying with  more affordable units required for new developments and even requiring that developments be bigger so they can build more units. 

It will at some point burn itself out.  People will decide they don't  need to be here for many different reasons, reasons we probably can't  even guess at now.  Happens everywhere on a long enough time scale.

I wonder if buyers start to consider wfh effects on dependents. Suburbia will be the ultimate winner As metro grows and people realize more will be living at home. Kids leaving the nests later. It's inevitable. Have to live within transit system 

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3 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Our little 3 bedroom in Holliston built in 1966 has gone up like 100k+ in 4 years since we bought it. We bought it for 345k and most appraisals would put it at 450 now. It’s insane. 

All the new construction single family homes around here are going for 700+ and most of them over 800. 

We had a bit of disagreement with our bank and rates had dropped about a point since our original mortgage agreement, so we refinanced with another bank (later to be bought by the original bank :arrowhead:) and converted to a 20 year. The house appraised for 25k more in a year. 

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While we are in a weather lull in New England here is a good documentary on Hurricane Michael. I worked restoration efforts for this storm and so much tree damage. 
 

 

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