January Long Range Disco Thread

[WxUSAF]

Next week really seems to come down to the position of the Northern stream s/w's.  If they are progressive and slide east, then the main southern stream s/w just gets washed out and the low either doesn't develop or is just a fish event.  If they are weaker or phase into the southern s/w, then we have big dog potential.  

[Ji]

1 minute ago, nj2va said:

18z GFS says get ready for some boring ass weather for the next 8-9 days.  Bone dry.

you cant draw up a worst 500mb to spark a storm. Absolutely horrid

[losetoa6]

Para getting closer with the weekend system.  It already tickles Md with snow . A bit more separation from the Maine MC Hammer sw and @CAPEis shoveling a couple inches. 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just look at the h5 changes north of us for the end of week. Huge. Get about 2 more changes of that magnitude and watch what happens.

[WinterWxLuvr]

9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Para getting closer with the weekend system.  It already tickles Md with snow . A bit more separation from the Maine MC Hammer sw and @CAPEis shoveling a couple inches. 

 

Let’s keep this alive brother. No way we are out on that thing yet.

[WinterWxLuvr]

It would help if we could slow the sw a bit and deepen it a little further west.

[psuhoffman]

Fwiw Icon at 120 looks like the euro and is amplifying the trough in the Miss Valley 

[leesburg 04]

23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Next week really seems to come down to the position of the Northern stream s/w's.  If they are progressive and slide east, then the main southern stream s/w just gets washed out and the low either doesn't develop or is just a fish event.  If they are weaker or phase into the southern s/w, then we have big dog potential.  

What model typically handles Northern stream s/w's better? I seem to remember that being a thing a few years ago

[Eskimo Joe]

For those wondering about the cold, the end of the 18z OP GFS has DC not getting out of the upper 20s on Inauguration Day. Sub zero air in Canada and the Great Lakes.

[frd]

Jeez,  everyone is getting on the bandwagon! 

GFS must be wrong with digital snow totals.  

https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/arctic-outbreaks-major-winter-storms-may-unfold-thanks-to-polar-vortex/877841

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

What model typically handles Northern stream s/w's better? I seem to remember that being a thing a few years ago

i think it was the gfs lol

[North Balti Zen]

2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said:

What model typically handles Northern stream s/w's better? I seem to remember that being a thing a few years ago

That used to be the Euro - thought to do better in Nina years.

Dunno if that holds in a Nina year that blocks like a Nino.

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, Ji said:

i think it was the gfs lol

Seriously, no. It was the Euro. 

[psuhoffman]

A general pattern observation...most guidance has a similar pattern evolution the next 2 weeks. This initial block is centered south of Greenland into northern Quebec. That’s a bit “extra”. It weakens around day 5 then reorganizes in the next heat flux more towards central Greenland to Baffin. That’s a more ideal location. The window would be during the relax then again after that block reforms further north. 

[Ji]

17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

A general pattern observation...most guidance has a similar pattern evolution the next 2 weeks. This initial block is centered south of Greenland into northern Quebec. That’s a bit “extra”. It weakens around day 5 then reorganizes in the next heat flux more towards central Greenland to Baffin. That’s a more ideal location. The window would be during the relax then again after that block reforms further north. 

you need to will the models to a storm man.....we cant waste this pattern

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

you need to will the models to a storm man.....we cant waste this pattern

Question, if you like digital snow more then real how come you complain so much when guidance takes it away at the last minute. Seems it served its purpose already at that point. 

[ErinInTheSky]

58 minutes ago, Ji said:

you cant draw up a worst 500mb to spark a storm. Absolutely horrid

Honestly I could use a little dry weather to do some things outside. I'm tired of all this mud.

[WinterWxLuvr]

I actually thought it was the euro that handled southern stream waves better and the gfs the northern. But that was the old gfs. Not sure this one handles anything well.

[CAPE]

@losetoa6 

[jaydreb]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I actually thought it was the euro that handled southern stream waves better and the gfs the northern. But that was the old gfs. Not sure this one handles anything well.

I don’t know.  One model gives us no snow and one model gives us an MECS.  We’ll see which one ends up correct.  

[Ji]

18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Question, if you like digital snow more then real how come you complain so much when guidance takes it away at the last minute. Seems it served its purpose already at that point. 

because on the most important run---the run before the actual storm starts...all the blue we worked days for vanishes so all the happy days of great model runs are somewhat negated. But those happy days still cant be taken away and they actually put me in a real good mood online and in person

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I actually thought it was the euro that handled southern stream waves better and the gfs the northern. But that was the old gfs. Not sure this one handles anything well.

thats exactly what i thought.

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, CAPE said:

@losetoa6 

It literally farted out flakes...lol

[CAPE]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

It literally farted out flakes...lol

Baby steps!

[losetoa6]

15 minutes ago, CAPE said:

@losetoa6 

Flurry Fringed 

[CAPE]

I think my brother, who oddly enough lives NW of Greensboro NC, has had more snow than me the last couple years lol.

[Wonderdog]

21 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

I don’t know.  One model gives us no snow and one model gives us an MECS.  We’ll see which one ends up correct.  

I think we know how this works out. 

[CAPE]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

because on the most important run---the run before the actual storm starts...all the blue we worked days for vanishes so all the happy days of great model runs are somewhat negated. But those happy days still cant be taken away and they actually put me in a real good mood online and in person

Do you by any chance hunt animals for the kill but don't eat the meat?

[Prestige Worldwide]

No panic until after this timeframe 

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, Prestige Worldwide said:

No panic until after this timeframe 

This has always been the most realistic time for the beginning of our best window of opportunity.