WxUSAF Posted January 5 Next week really seems to come down to the position of the Northern stream s/w's. If they are progressive and slide east, then the main southern stream s/w just gets washed out and the low either doesn't develop or is just a fish event. If they are weaker or phase into the southern s/w, then we have big dog potential. 5 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ji Posted January 5 1 minute ago, nj2va said: 18z GFS says get ready for some boring ass weather for the next 8-9 days. Bone dry. you cant draw up a worst 500mb to spark a storm. Absolutely horrid Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted January 5 Para getting closer with the weekend system. It already tickles Md with snow . A bit more separation from the Maine MC Hammer sw and @CAPEis shoveling a couple inches. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5 Just look at the h5 changes north of us for the end of week. Huge. Get about 2 more changes of that magnitude and watch what happens. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5 9 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Para getting closer with the weekend system. It already tickles Md with snow . A bit more separation from the Maine MC Hammer sw and @CAPEis shoveling a couple inches. Let’s keep this alive brother. No way we are out on that thing yet. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5 It would help if we could slow the sw a bit and deepen it a little further west. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 5 Fwiw Icon at 120 looks like the euro and is amplifying the trough in the Miss Valley 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leesburg 04 Posted January 5 23 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Next week really seems to come down to the position of the Northern stream s/w's. If they are progressive and slide east, then the main southern stream s/w just gets washed out and the low either doesn't develop or is just a fish event. If they are weaker or phase into the southern s/w, then we have big dog potential. What model typically handles Northern stream s/w's better? I seem to remember that being a thing a few years ago Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eskimo Joe Posted January 5 For those wondering about the cold, the end of the 18z OP GFS has DC not getting out of the upper 20s on Inauguration Day. Sub zero air in Canada and the Great Lakes. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
frd Posted January 5 Jeez, everyone is getting on the bandwagon! GFS must be wrong with digital snow totals. https://www.accuweather.com/en/winter-weather/arctic-outbreaks-major-winter-storms-may-unfold-thanks-to-polar-vortex/877841 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ji Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What model typically handles Northern stream s/w's better? I seem to remember that being a thing a few years ago i think it was the gfs lol Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
North Balti Zen Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: What model typically handles Northern stream s/w's better? I seem to remember that being a thing a few years ago That used to be the Euro - thought to do better in Nina years. Dunno if that holds in a Nina year that blocks like a Nino. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
North Balti Zen Posted January 5 Just now, Ji said: i think it was the gfs lol Seriously, no. It was the Euro. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 5 A general pattern observation...most guidance has a similar pattern evolution the next 2 weeks. This initial block is centered south of Greenland into northern Quebec. That’s a bit “extra”. It weakens around day 5 then reorganizes in the next heat flux more towards central Greenland to Baffin. That’s a more ideal location. The window would be during the relax then again after that block reforms further north. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ji Posted January 5 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: A general pattern observation...most guidance has a similar pattern evolution the next 2 weeks. This initial block is centered south of Greenland into northern Quebec. That’s a bit “extra”. It weakens around day 5 then reorganizes in the next heat flux more towards central Greenland to Baffin. That’s a more ideal location. The window would be during the relax then again after that block reforms further north. you need to will the models to a storm man.....we cant waste this pattern Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
psuhoffman Posted January 5 3 minutes ago, Ji said: you need to will the models to a storm man.....we cant waste this pattern Question, if you like digital snow more then real how come you complain so much when guidance takes it away at the last minute. Seems it served its purpose already at that point. 1 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
ErinInTheSky Posted January 5 58 minutes ago, Ji said: you cant draw up a worst 500mb to spark a storm. Absolutely horrid Honestly I could use a little dry weather to do some things outside. I'm tired of all this mud. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 5 I actually thought it was the euro that handled southern stream waves better and the gfs the northern. But that was the old gfs. Not sure this one handles anything well. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
jaydreb Posted January 5 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I actually thought it was the euro that handled southern stream waves better and the gfs the northern. But that was the old gfs. Not sure this one handles anything well. I don’t know. One model gives us no snow and one model gives us an MECS. We’ll see which one ends up correct. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ji Posted January 5 18 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Question, if you like digital snow more then real how come you complain so much when guidance takes it away at the last minute. Seems it served its purpose already at that point. because on the most important run---the run before the actual storm starts...all the blue we worked days for vanishes so all the happy days of great model runs are somewhat negated. But those happy days still cant be taken away and they actually put me in a real good mood online and in person 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Ji Posted January 5 8 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: I actually thought it was the euro that handled southern stream waves better and the gfs the northern. But that was the old gfs. Not sure this one handles anything well. thats exactly what i thought. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Maestrobjwa Posted January 5 7 minutes ago, CAPE said: @losetoa6 It literally farted out flakes...lol 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted January 5 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: It literally farted out flakes...lol Baby steps! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted January 5 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: @losetoa6 Flurry Fringed Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted January 5 I think my brother, who oddly enough lives NW of Greensboro NC, has had more snow than me the last couple years lol. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Wonderdog Posted January 5 21 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I don’t know. One model gives us no snow and one model gives us an MECS. We’ll see which one ends up correct. I think we know how this works out. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted January 5 19 minutes ago, Ji said: because on the most important run---the run before the actual storm starts...all the blue we worked days for vanishes so all the happy days of great model runs are somewhat negated. But those happy days still cant be taken away and they actually put me in a real good mood online and in person Do you by any chance hunt animals for the kill but don't eat the meat? 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 6 No panic until after this timeframe Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted January 6 1 minute ago, Prestige Worldwide said: No panic until after this timeframe This has always been the most realistic time for the beginning of our best window of opportunity. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites