• Member Statistics

    16,546
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    ampongabezo
    Newest Member
    ampongabezo
    Joined
yoda

January Long Range Disco Thread

Recommended Posts

14 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS LR is cold asf...but also bone dry. Towards the end you can see the trof burying itself in the west. If Tom's (isotherm) outlook is true, the SER is going to flex in response and we can kiss Feb goodbye....and honestly you get that uneasy "yeah looks like isotherm will be right again" feeling when u loop the GEFS. 

At least we get the EPO tho right? :yikes:

Oh dang really? So that would mean we'd HAVE to score by the end of January. I mean we still have time, but I'm wondering how long that cold dry will last. But we have to get the cold in here, though...so we may have to deal with that just to build up the cold we need...because if we don't, we won't get anywhere with our current airmass either, right? I guess it's a matter of hoping we get the cold that has the side effect of being dry...but that it doesn't last so long that we lose the month.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh dang really? So that would mean we'd HAVE to score by the end of January. I mean we still have time, but I'm wondering how long that cold dry will last. But we have to get the cold in here, though...so we may have to deal with that just to build up the cold we need...because if we don't, we won't get anywhere with our current airmass either, right? I guess it's a matter of hoping we get the cold that has the side effect of being dry...but that it doesn't last so long that we lose the month.

Don't worry about February . We can't even get next week's stuff nailed down lol.

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS LR is cold asf...but also bone dry. Towards the end you can see the trof burying itself in the west. If Tom's (isotherm) outlook is true, the SER is going to flex in response and we can kiss Feb goodbye....and honestly you get that uneasy "yeah looks like isotherm will be right again" feeling when u loop the GEFS. 

At least we get the EPO tho right? :yikes:

Fine. Keep a love of the polar vortex over Hudson Bay, pop that se ridge and let’s roll with over running events.

I wish tomorrow we had a bit of southeast ridge.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Lol. That's better than last night's run.

Eh, I wouldn't say exactly that. The probability tool is actually pretty useful here. With the 0z runs there was a fair bit more consensus with getting snowfall into our area, generally 30-50% of ensemble members in our general subforum area gave us 1" or more, compared to ~20-40% this run. Probably a big hitter or two skewing the mean here. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, Chris78 said:

Don't worry about February . We can't even get next week's stuff nailed down lol.

Well I mean...that SER flexing in February idea is a bit scary...and I know Isotherm is usually pretty good, right? I just don't want a scenario where we don't see a flake for two separate reasons (first not enough cold and then too much) and have that happen in February. Wouldn't that be game over?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Shockingly it trended more amped after everything else went sheared 

If you look close there's a handful of members that are delayed with development and either phase a bit later or get bypassed by the 1st ns energy and develope around 140-156 hours timeframe vs 120 hr time frame .  A couple big hits for esp nw .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well I mean...that SER flexing in February idea is a bit scary...and I know Isotherm is usually pretty good, right? I just don't want a scenario where we don't see a flake for two separate reasons (first not enough cold and then too much) and have that happen in February. Wouldn't that be game over?

I get it .That would suck and also require alot of bad luck

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

Eh, I wouldn't say exactly that. The probability tool is actually pretty useful here. With the 0z runs there was a fair bit more consensus with getting snowfall into our area, generally 30-50% of ensemble members in our general subforum area gave us 1" or more, compared to ~20-40% this run. Probably a big hitter or two skewing the mean here. 

Gotcha . Just going off of the map you posted the snow mean looked a little better. ( in my yard). 

Thanks for the clarity. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
18 minutes ago, Ji said:

how are you below normal. you got around 9 in Dec right? You dont live that far for me

I hate using normal... to me "normal" should be the median not the average since our avg is skewed by big years.  So this is kinda a silly point but my AVG is about 40" my median is about 35".  By the "avg" I should be at about 14" by now...so yes even with that one big storm in December I am still running below climo for this date.  But not by that much and I am NOT complaining...just pointing out even up here it has underperformed expectations for a sustained deeply -AO.  Frankly you would expect to be above climo with that.  

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Don’t forget that nice 3-5” event around Jan 20 that year 

I was thinking about that 2 week period quite a bit leading in to this winter. maybe it's just a hunch or wishful thinking but it is on the table. Our good window really doesn't start until the 15th. This upcoming week still may workout but it looks like we got a bit of a head fake. When our official window gets here its look like well have 2-3 weeks to score. Hopefully there is a reload and we get extend into first 2 weeks of February. We know it has to break down but hopefully we max out on length of favorable indices. Whether or not we enter a 2-3  week stint of deep winter like in 2000 is the million dollar question.

For those too young to remember I'll give recap of how that period in January 2000 played out. Horrible 1st 2 weeks of January. Pattern changed on the 18th. Very cold cloudy day with a small clipper that dropped only a half inch of snow but snarled traffic around DC. Only virga from Baltimore northward. Then a nice quick moving system dropped 3-6 inches to kick start the run. The next day was very windy and cold. There was a potential storm on the 23rd but it failed and resulted in flurries. Then of course the 25th we all know about. The next storm was on the 30 th superbowl sunday. Forecast busted in a positive way for northemwest burbs. 4-8 inches fell and never changed over even though most forecast were for 1-3 and a change to a mix then rain. Stayed chilly after that storm for a few days with some snow showers then winter ended. I got 26 inches in Reisterstown all in a 10 day  stretch. 

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

If you look close there's a handful of members that are delayed with development and either phase a bit later or get bypassed by the 1st ns energy and develope around 140-156 hours timeframe vs 120 hr time frame .  A couple big hits for esp nw .

If that threat is going to work that is probably the only way how.  The NS flow is WAY too suppressive around the 11th but starts to relax after...if somehow the wave can slow down and amplify...or something like the euro run that let the first wave escape then amplified behind it...that could work.  Need another 24 hours to let the NS get out of the way.  

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, psuhoffman said:

If that threat is going to work that is probably the only way how.  The NS flow is WAY too suppressive around the 11th but starts to relax after...if somehow the wave can slow down and amplify...or something like the euro run that let the first wave escape then amplified behind it...that could work.  Need another 24 hours to let the NS get out of the way.  

Seems like we're better off banking on the wave slowing rather than speeding up.. seems like models tend to slow down storms anywho. Wasn't that what happened with the Dec 16/17th storm, where the slowdown allowed the 50/50 low to ease to the east somewhat?

 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, HighStakes said:

I was thinking about that 2 week period quite a bit leading in to this winter. maybe it's just a hunch or wishful thinking but it is on the table. Our good window really doesn't start until the 15th. This upcoming week still may workout but it looks like we got a bit of a head fake. When our official window gets here its look like well have 2-3 weeks to score. Hopefully there is a reload and we get extend into first 2 weeks of February. We know it has to break down but hopefully we max out on length of favorable indices. Whether or not we enter a 2-3  week stint of deep winter like in 2000 is the million dollar question.

For those too young to remember I'll give recap of how that period in January 2000 played out. Horrible 1st 2 weeks of January. Pattern changed on the 18th. Very cold cloudy day with a small clipper that dropped only a half inch of snow but snarled traffic around DC. Only virga from Baltimore northward. Then a nice quick moving system dropped 3-6 inches to kick start the run. The next day was very windy and cold. There was a potential storm on the 23rd but it failed and resulted in flurries. Then of course the 25th we all know about. The next storm was on the 30 th superbowl sunday. Forecast busted in a positive way for northemwest burbs. 4-8 inches fell and never changed over even though most forecast were for 1-3 and a change to a mix then rain. Stayed chilly after that storm for a few days with some snow showers then winter ended. I got 26 inches in Reisterstown all in a 10 day  stretch. 

Nice recollection. That first system (Jan 20?) is overlooked because of what came after, but a very underrated storm IMO. It was a pure NS wave that dropped far enough south to work for us. Then it blew up into a huge bomb offshore (like 950mb) and hit Nova Scotia pretty hard, but missed NE. That's why it was so windy afterwards, some of the most impressive blowing and drifting I have seen in this area especially considering the storm total was only 3-6 as you mention. I wonder if the look being advertised day10+ could lead to this type of opportunity.

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If that threat is going to work that is probably the only way how.  The NS flow is WAY too suppressive around the 11th but starts to relax after...if somehow the wave can slow down and amplify...or something like the euro run that let the first wave escape then amplified behind it...that could work.  Need another 24 hours to let the NS get out of the way.  

The ICON is the only global that is doing this (yes i know the ICON sucks but just for visualization).

ecmwf-deterministic-conus-vort500_z500-0452800.png

icon-all-conus-vort500_z500-0452800.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
34 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Oh dang really? So that would mean we'd HAVE to score by the end of January. I mean we still have time, but I'm wondering how long that cold dry will last. But we have to get the cold in here, though...so we may have to deal with that just to build up the cold we need...because if we don't, we won't get anywhere with our current airmass either, right? I guess it's a matter of hoping we get the cold that has the side effect of being dry...but that it doesn't last so long that we lose the month.

Looks like our usual around here. 7-10 days of true winter. That is my guess at the very least. It is becoming apparent we aren't scoring with the -AO/-NAO. Eventually that has to retreat and go neutral. It is during that period we will score. Likely during the 2nd half of Jan. 

The big question is do we regain the NAO/AO as some are saying the SWE states we will? Or do we lose the ATL in lieu of the EPO thumb ridge or rex block and not see the -AO/NAO return this winter.

That should be interesting moving into the latter part of this month and early Feb. Again, we will get our week to 10 days of winter as per usual after the 15th when the Atl relaxes imho. Just wondering where we head thereafter. 

  • Sad 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I hate using normal... to me "normal" should be the median not the average since our avg is skewed by big years.  So this is kinda a silly point but my AVG is about 40" my median is about 35".  By the "avg" I should be at about 14" by now...so yes even with that one big storm in December I am still running below climo for this date.  But not by that much and I am NOT complaining...just pointing out even up here it has underperformed expectations for a sustained deeply -AO.  Frankly you would expect to be above climo with that.  

Yea but not all -AOs are created the same. Even though it’s like multiple std dev negative the underlying cold is not what one would expect in an anomalous AO state. So it’s almost like who cares it’s negative. The AO is Luke warm to begin with this year

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Imma say it again. H5 84 hour NAM.  Don't look at me like that.   What else have we got in this time of extreme desperation.  

doom scrolling...lots and lots of doomscrolling

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

It is January.  Just need "cold enough " nearby right. We've had that more often the not . I mean the southern Mid Atlantic and south after Tuesday will have 3 winter storm events . If its getting cold enough there it surely would here . Tomorrow's system isn't a shredded system (up to  1 inch qpf+ with a 990s low off Hatteres .  It just got suppressed . Bad luck plays a decent size role for sure . I personally like early weeks chances .

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Dang man...I didn't realize February could go to crap...now I'm a bit nervous. It is never comfortable to just have one window. Too much can go wrong, and you have to pin your winter hopes on one or two chances. See I was hoping we were gonna finally hang on to the -AO/NAO regime and have windows into mid-February. But now I read Isotherms outlook and he says it might break down and go positive in February? Hope he's wrong...now if we can cash in second half of January...that'll be fine 

Dang it, man... @psuhoffman so you mean to tell me had that stupid pac warmth in November hadn't happened, we'd already have more snow? Smh I hope that doesn't screw us over...not when we finally got the elusive winter -ao/nao. We don't know when we'll see this in winter again...I hope we can take advantage of it somehow.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

WB 12Z EPS.  Some chances here Day 5 and beyond.   Seems like next week at this time we will know if January is a complete dud or if things are getting ready to rock...

09C3D8D2-2E0C-46C5-9A71-F6535A95FD58.png

E4549EB4-B025-4B59-9DAC-26E72236292E.png

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

February has looked very mild in most long ranges

Wevd  been practicing “10 days away” since mid December with zip and same zip for the theoretical benefit of SSW. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I hate using normal... to me "normal" should be the median not the average since our avg is skewed by big years.  So this is kinda a silly point but my AVG is about 40" my median is about 35".  By the "avg" I should be at about 14" by now...so yes even with that one big storm in December I am still running below climo for this date.  But not by that much and I am NOT complaining...just pointing out even up here it has underperformed expectations for a sustained deeply -AO.  Frankly you would expect to be above climo with that.  

Its not that we are below average. The issue is the pattern has been good for snow. And on top of that we have had storms. Just not snowstorms. We got unlucky on the timing of the block setting up. All of the cold air got trapped on the other side of the hemisphere. And the rest is history. I still think we get hit in late January/early Feb. though.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

February has looked very mild in most long ranges

Wevd  been practicing “10 days away” since mid December with zip and same zip for the theoretical benefit of SSW. 

I swear if I read anything more about a threat in the d7-d10 range being taken seriously I'm going to flip out and see the reaper. Ah shoot, too late for that.  Is there a secret lvl2 panic room? 

  • Haha 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
29 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS.  Some chances here Day 5 and beyond.   Seems like next week at this time we will know if January is a complete dud or if things are getting ready to rock...

09C3D8D2-2E0C-46C5-9A71-F6535A95FD58.png

E4549EB4-B025-4B59-9DAC-26E72236292E.png

Can you post through day 7 please 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I swear if I read anything more about a threat in the d7-d10 range being taken seriously I'm going to flip out and see the reaper. Ah shoot, too late for that.  Is there a secret lvl2 panic room? 

May I suggest a different thread 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.