January Long Range Disco Thread

[frd]

10 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

I'm giving it til the 15th like every other year. If no digital blue appearing on the horizon still, and the Nina looks staring us in the face, it may be time to lower expectations from low to nil.

 

Certainly seems post 2015 that a Greenland block and a - AO will not produce for us like they did years ago. There are exceptions though. 

In my opinion it has to do with the warming arctic summers and a slow to develop NH snow cover, that we need to induce the build-up of very cold air that we can tap into to. 

Also, a delivery method is need to get that very cold air into the East. The last several winter the Northern Plains have been very cold. 

I feel to get  colder weather to the East we really need a very cooperative Pac. I profess that is more important now than ever. 

The elusive - EPO which has been a model forecast bust for the past 3 years never gets to real time.   A Best pattern since xxxx has failed now several times this year and the end of December as well. 

 Bluewave made a post that I brought over but you can see that the Pac really needs to be the prime driver for cold and snow in my opinion. I am no expert but just sharing some thoughts, It simply feels that drivers that would typically produce a SECS , fail to deliver for us on a greater frequency.  Of course,  the caveat  is, we have a Nina and right there you know there will be challenges. 

Here is bluewave's post below:

 

 

 

I am just calling it a window of opportunity for snow  starting around the 16-18th. But it’s uncertain how much of the potential gets realized. The EPS is weakening the PNA faster now than just a few days ago. 

New run

 

Old run

 

 

[nj2va]

34 minutes ago, frd said:

Are you feeling our window has narrowed down a bit?  Its looks like it can produce near the 20 to 23  rd , but the longevity of it seems to be lessening. We kind of knew the Pac would improve, but then go the other way again. 

Certainly possible we warm up in early Feb only to turn colder again later. If indeed this SSWe has any role in our sensible weather it would produce another period of - NAM later in Feb.  

The heck if I know....the smarter ones could comment way better I'm sure.  A few thoughts I have:

1) The H5 pattern gets exponentially better for snow chances in the region beginning in a week or so.  If it happens verbatim, it would take an epic fail for MA standards to not see snow (people should temper their KU expectations since those are hard to come by).

2) You're beginning to see signs on the GEFS snow mean maps that the period beginning in a week or so has some legs if you compare that to what we usually see for a 5-7 day snow mean.  While I don't live and die by snow mean maps, they're helpful in spotting uber LR trends in potential.

Yeah, I'm sure its the weenie in me saying this but I find it hard to believe we are shutout the rest of the month.  

[frd]

Just now, CAPE said:

Its not that it left its mark. It is still occurring. Until that NE PAC trough weakens and retrogrades, and the PAC jet relaxes, the puke continues to flow into our source region. That happens right around mid month and as the PNA/EPO ridge develops, the fire hose is pinched off and we have a mechanism to get polar air southward. 

True , and hopefully the PNA/EPO ridge develops as modeled.  

[WinterWxLuvr]

I 100% agree that the Pacific is the driver. Thinking it isn’t is like thinking Lake Ontario has an more of an effect on the Niagara River than does Niagara Falls.

Mention was made of slow NH snow cover as being a reason for no cold. Don’t think that would hold up because if memory serves haven’t we had some rapid and record fall snow cover advances in the past 5 years?

[Weather Will]

Seems like everyone should temper their expectations for later this month based on the WB 0Z EPS teleconnection charts.  AO and PNA in particular heading the wrong way...

[dallen7908]

Even if that is the case there will be a window perhaps D10-D15 for an HA event or more likely just a wintry storm as the AO/NAO rise from very low levels and the PNA falls. 

[nj2va]

We often score when the NAO relaxes.

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

We often score when the NAO relaxes.

Thats a BINGO Square, ty!

[frd]

9 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I 100% agree that the Pacific is the driver. Thinking it isn’t is like thinking Lake Ontario has an more of an effect on the Niagara River than does Niagara Falls.

Mention was made of slow NH snow cover as being a reason for no cold. Don’t think that would hold up because if memory serves haven’t we had some rapid and record fall snow cover advances in the past 5 years?

Yes that is true, we have record North America snow cover the last two winters,  not sure about the other side of the pole. However, keep in mind we went from record North America snow cover to dropping like crazy during Jan both of those years,  I believe one was due to the SSWE and the other the Pac induced flow into Canada. 

I do know that Siberia set record high temps back in the summer and possible the Fall.  Not sure of the consequence of that.  

Both of the past horrible winters, as you know, featured so so Pac patterns with little blocking in the NAO domain and I believe the AO averaged positive. 

The Pac effects the EPO region, PNA region and Canadian snow cover. It has HUGE implications for us. So far the - AO and the - NAO has done little this winter.  

Also, keep in mind the numerous model failures the last three years in bringing cold to our region. There is way more to it than that though. 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Yes that is true, we have record North America snow cover the last two winters,  not sure about the other side of the pole. However, keep in mind we went from record North America snow cover to dropping like crazy during Jan both of those years,  I believe one was due to the SSWE and the other the Pac induced flow into Canada. 

I do know that Siberia set record high temps back in the summer and possible the Fall.  Not sure of the consequence of that.  

Both of the past horrible winters, as you know, featured so so Pac patterns with little blocking in the NAO domain and I believe the AO averaged positive. 

The Pac effects the EPO region, PNA region and Canadian snow cover. It has HUGE implications for us. So far the - AO and the - NAO has done little this winter.  

Also, keep in mind the numerous model failures the last three years in bringing cold to our region. There is way more to it than that though. 

I think the map you post that is the most telling is the one with the Canadian temps. That’s a pretty amazing consistency for those kinds of anomalies 

[Weather Will]

14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Seems like everyone should temper their expectations for later this month based on the WB 0Z EPS teleconnection charts.  AO and PNA in particular heading the wrong way...

My big point is that I am not seeing the holy grail of a sustained -AO, -NAO, + PNA, -EPO.  and -WPO.  I also don’t know what if any factor the SSW could have or if these teleconnection indices somehow reflect the forecasted SSW.

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

My big point is that I am not seeing the holy grail of a sustained -AO, -NAO, + PNA, -EPO.  and -WPO.  I also don’t know what if any factor the SSW could have or if these teleconnection indices somehow reflect the forecasted SSW.

The one that concerns me is that PNA. I’m fine with the AO and NAO buzzing along around neutral 

[WinterWxLuvr]

One thing I just noticed is that the current gfs mjo forecast today is a complete 180 from just a couple of days ago

[frd]

3 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

I think the map you post that is the most telling is the one with the Canadian temps. That’s a pretty amazing consistency for those kinds of anomalies 

 Yep. Ah the old days of 2002 - 2003 I remember - 4  and -5 up there. 

An update from  @Isotherm  seems in order in regards to the SSWE. 

Here is his outlook for this month:

 

 January: z500 structure = neutral or +EPO/Near neutral AO/Near neutral or negative NAO/+PNA: this month, while still warmer than normal for most of the United States, will provide the highest opportunity for winter conditions in the coastal Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will be colder than normal across the Lakes and New England, near normal into the northern Mid-Atlantic, and warmer than normal elsewhere in the country. Snowfall will be above normal in the Lakes, New England, and near normal in the Mid-Atlantic.

 

 

[frd]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

One thing I just noticed is that the current gfs mjo forecast today is a complete 180 from just a couple of days ago

Going where ?

 

[frd]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The one that concerns me is that PNA. I’m fine with the AO and NAO buzzing along around neutral 

This looks good 

 

 

 

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, frd said:

Going where ?

 

Two days ago it had it progressing to the edge of 6. Now it has it basically moving backwards into 3.

[Ji]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

Two days ago it had it progressing to the edge of 6. Now it has it basically moving backwards into 3.

well if its drifting backwards...its probably not strong enough to make any kind of impact?

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, Ji said:

well if its drifting backwards...its probably not strong enough to make any kind of impact?

 

3 minutes ago, frd said:

This looks good 

 

 

 

I don’t understand stand enough about of either of these to make an intelligent comment

[Yeoman]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Two days ago it had it progressing to the edge of 6. Now it has it basically moving backwards into 3.

When you make a forecast based off a forecast of 5 other indices being correct, you might has well draw your forecast out of a hat. This year is no exception

[Yeoman]

9 hours ago, Ji said:

Ggem looks interesting d8 9

The same model that gave you 10" for today no more than 4 days ago?

[frd]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

well if its drifting backwards...its probably not strong enough to make any kind of impact?

psu talked about this.  I would not weigh too much into the MJO forecasts at this time. 

The blue color indicates a - NAM state, ie. HL blocking, and as mentioned here before, there is a tendency that even if the AO goes positive later in the month it will once again go negative , normally there are several cycles to this event on a time a scale going out to almost 60 days.  

Also worth mentioning, the real impacts of the SSWE is not due to hit sensible weather for 20 to 30 days after the official wind reversal. So, the models may adjust to colder longer term if our area is favored for the Southern displacement of colder anomalies.  If this occurs hopefully a baroclinic zone sets up near by and we can reap the benefits of increased probabilities of snow over rain.  

I guess the bottom line is don't over react to model data in the long range,  and set expectations within rational levels. 

 

[mattie g]

47 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Seems like everyone should temper their expectations for later this month based on the WB 0Z EPS teleconnection charts.  AO and PNA in particular heading the wrong way...

You have no idea whether those are relaxations from the base state or if they're portents to a longer-term move to less favorable states.

[Ji]

stuff he wont say on the board to cause panic

 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

stuff he wont say on the board to cause panic

 

You're kind of an asshole for this one.   Dude has been pretty decent with you and all explaining his thoughts here and you try to undercut him with this.

[Ji]

You're kind of an asshole for this one.   Dude has been pretty decent with you and all explaining his thoughts here and you try to undercut him with this.

How is that undercutting him lol. This wasn’t a private conversation. It’s public on twitter

You think people gonna be upset with him cause he tells the truth


.

[Ji]

He should be honored he got quoted from Twitter. Usually we don’t quote from twitter unless your a top notch met


.

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

How is that undercutting him lol. This wasn’t a private conversation. It’s public on twitter

You think people gonna be upset with him cause he tells the truth


.

But he has said those things on here, so you were being a bit of an instigator with that post.

[Isotherm]

31 minutes ago, frd said:

 Yep. Ah the old days of 2002 - 2003 I remember - 4  and -5 up there. 

An update from  @Isotherm  seems in order in regards to the SSWE. 

Here is his outlook for this month:

 

 January: z500 structure = neutral or +EPO/Near neutral AO/Near neutral or negative NAO/+PNA: this month, while still warmer than normal for most of the United States, will provide the highest opportunity for winter conditions in the coastal Northeast and Mid-Atlantic. Temperatures will be colder than normal across the Lakes and New England, near normal into the northern Mid-Atlantic, and warmer than normal elsewhere in the country. Snowfall will be above normal in the Lakes, New England, and near normal in the Mid-Atlantic.

 

 

 

@frd, see my outlook thread for continued updates (below). As emphasized awhile ago, I would repeat that stratospheric warming events are a reaction/product of tropospheric forcing, and the feedback outcome is dependent upon tropospheric receptivity, more integral than whether a subjective major definition is reached or not. In this case, the troposphere is well coupled, so it will promote at least a few weeks of blocking before disintegration. I still believe the coming period (through the end of Jan) provides heightened opportunity for snowfall in the E US. An important factor I'd monitor, esp. for the Mid-Atlantic and SE, is PNA tendencies upstream. It will be positive in the means, but the retraction toward the EPO domain/W PNA should occur later month, there will be more resistance in the far SE US via height rises.

 

[psuhoffman]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

too east...next

It retrogrades west after that but you knew that...