psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I laughed..the results literally made me lol'd. We are cursed on the GFS It’s getting kinda ridiculous. Maybe they programmed the DC snow hole into the algorithms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Has the CMC started the 12z run??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Look at the potential. Perhaps a bit far apart but hard not to notice All guidance is having a hard time with all the discreet NS waves. But the euro and gfs are now both keying on that more significant SW diving into the central US and amplifying. The euro developed a monster coastal in back to back runs from that only oddly using 2 different progressions. One by phasing it with the southern SW. Last nights run the spacing was too great and so it washed the southern wave out then developed a whole new surface system behind it. The details are going to keep changing because there are too many SWs to resolve details at this range but I think the key lies with that energy diving down into the plains. We want that to stay stronger. If that is as healthy as guidance suggests the chances something works out are better. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, ryanconway63 said: Has the CMC started the 12z run??? Only just Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: All guidance is having a hard time with all the discreet NS waves. But the euro and gfs are now both keying on that more significant SW diving into the central US and amplifying. The euro developed a monster coastal in back to back runs from that only oddly using 2 different progressions. One by phasing it with the southern SW. Last nights run the spacing was too great and so it washed the southern wave out then developed a whole new surface system behind it. The details are going to keep changing because there are too many SWs to resolve details at this range but I think the key lies with that energy diving down into the plains. We want that to stay stronger. If that is as healthy as guidance suggests the chances something works out are better. Let’s get the one in Canada too. Triple phase or bust. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Para looking pretty good so far.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Incoming on the Para also it seems...looks more southern stream driven without a phase, but northern stream is more out of the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, WxUSAF said: Incoming on the Para also it seems...looks more southern stream driven without a phase, but northern stream is more out of the way Seems to be washing out the s/w though comparing 120 to 132 at h5 level Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Where yall getting the Para? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Where yall getting the Para? Pivotal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just now, stormtracker said: Where yall getting the Para? Pivotal Weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Where yall getting the Para? Pivotal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 I'll take the V16 for next week's storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 9 minutes ago, yoda said: Seems to be washing out the s/w though comparing 120 to 132 at h5 level Northern stream does kick it away a bit, but it's also weaker than previously shown so it gives the storm some room to amplify and give us a light event. All good trends today at 12z so far. And maybe offers a couple ways to win: 1. Northern stream phases in 2. Stronger southern s/w does it all alone as long as northern stream goes away enough 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 A lot more coastals showing up on 12z GEFS for next week but many of them are rain for much of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Para doesnt quite get it done. But a huge jump N/W from 06z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Looks like the cmc is coming north. Only out to 114 on TT but heights are higher out in front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Definitely some rainier solutions win the mix but the mean is nice looking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Seems to be a consensus among 12z to dive that NS vort behind the ss one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 At least at the coast you know you are out of the game for sure in marginal setups. I think we are nearing the end of the road for old climo and the GFS biases are obstructing that concept. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 6 minutes ago, Vice-Regent said: At least at the coast you know you are out of the game for sure in marginal setups. I think we are nearing the end of the road for old climo and the GFS biases are obstructing that concept. Pretty sure the coast has tripled my snow fall since 2016. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vice-Regent Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: Pretty sure the coast has tripled my snow fall since 2016. Many have benefited and it makes it easier to swallow. However as it was before people were lulled into a false sense of positivity about snowfall and negative albedo feedbacks. That we could persist in this above average era for a long time (2 decades+). My initial abrupt climate change prediction (made in 2017) was 2020 give or take 2 years. I am sure there was one or two that thought it could overcome the long-term warming trend but AGW is not a land-coupled warming. It begins in the ocean and warms the land with cloud cover feedbacks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 12z UKMET just a little different at h5 at 144 comparing it to the 12z GFS/12z GFS-PARA/12z CMC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Somehow GGEM gets close with a very goofy 500mb evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 Just a TAD cold on the 12z GFS in uber long range... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 19 minutes ago, LP08 said: Seems to be a consensus among 12z to dive that NS vort behind the ss one. Those two maps are so different that they are really incomparable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 Great trends from the 12z suit. Most guidance yesterday had killed off the storm completely. I believe all has brought it back in some form or another. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Those two maps are so different that they are really incomparable A SW must have came on shore... More sampling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 6, 2021 Author Share Posted January 6, 2021 7 minutes ago, yoda said: Just a TAD cold on the 12z GFS in uber long range... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 6, 2021 Share Posted January 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Great. Frozen brown ground 2 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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