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BullCityWx

January 8th-9th threat

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14 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

To be honest this has behaved right on que for my location. Im suprised at Mt Airy switching over, struggling. Northern/central NC Mountains are gonna over perform no doubt. Most ,almost all the accums east of the mtns, definitely foothill region was to come from the backside band latter this evening. 

You've been around here long enough to know who is gonna pull this whining during the event stuff. I feel like everything is on schedule here, I am a little disappointed I didnt get more mood flakes this morning but it is what it is. 

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4 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Hmmm, I thought the morning phase was supposed to deliver more to Triad

I wasn’t expecting much before noon, but even if we manage a sloppy inch late this afternoon or early evening, this has been a bust.

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6 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

This is what we do around here. We whine a quarter way through the event.

Sorry for that outburst! Lol

I'm absolutely sick that the heavy band I will be able to see through the trees! Looks like it will be as close to me as Gastonia, which is 40miles west. 

  Precip has yet to change to all SNOW imby.... still optimistic tho!!

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The moisture on the models always seemed to outpace the cold air. Combine that with the daylight, and you’re going to have problems.

At the end of the day this was always supposed to be a more convective Friday night event than stratiform snow like what is typically seen in Northern states. I’d expect some places to absolutely score tonight, but never was overly optimistic for anywhere east of 321 and south of I-40

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4 minutes ago, magpiemaniac said:

RAH has reduced my afternoon snow forecast from 1”-3” to just 1”.  Tonight is 0.5”.

On to February...

Good luck getting that!  I knew we were sunk when I woke up at 3am and the temps were still around 37 and the radar was anemic.  I'll take my rate driven dusting this afternoon and join you in February.

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5 minutes ago, kvegas-wx said:

Good luck getting that!  I knew we were sunk when I woke up at 3am and the temps were still around 37 and the radar was anemic.  I'll take my rate driven dusting this afternoon and join you in February.

I, too, had that sinking feeling when I woke up to unexpectedly warm temps.  Here’s my station reading.  I was fairly optimistic when I went to bed after midnight, but you can see what happened.

EDA34E2C-05FC-4C52-BB3D-878D4237AB48.jpeg

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So in summary:

1) nothing has changed East of the Triad. Forecast still on track. Some areas saw flakes this morning but it was never supposed to stick outside of Triad. Still on track for the C-1 forecast and I do think some areas even East of the triangle will have some surprise totals higher than that 

2) Unfortunately, bust for the triad folks. You’ll see snow, but it will not amount to the totals we were seeing last night. Deform band has trended south on models too, so it will be a wait and see for you guys
3) Charlotte is in play with that deform band. Actually has trended in that direction today

4) Mountains have done well, but definitely a screw zone even there. Foothills are just getting into it. Probably slightly less than forecast there but there will be some decent snow

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One thing I've noticed with the deform band is that the snow almost makes it into Columbia. Been a long time since they've seen literally anything there. 

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1 hour ago, BullCityWx said:

This is what we do around here. We whine a quarter way through the event.

You’re too kind....whining starts at least 4 days before an event..lol

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What concerns me is a lot of future radars are holding that band as mostly rain. 12z Nam hinted at this as well 

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1 hour ago, BullCityWx said:

One thing I've noticed with the deform band is that the snow almost makes it into Columbia. Been a long time since they've seen literally anything there. 

It's been nearly 4 years since we've had accumulating snow, but it has snowed two or three times since we've last had accumulating snowfall in March of 2017. 

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6 minutes ago, DeepSouthSC said:

It's been nearly 4 years since we've had accumulating snow, but it has snowed two or three times since we've last had accumulating snowfall in March of 2017. 

I am hoping this is the year that Macon, Augusta, Columbia gets a Miller A scenario and gets a good snow. It has been about 10 years since the fall line got a good snow.

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2 hours ago, 1bert1 said:

I am hoping this is the year that Macon, Augusta, Columbia gets a Miller A scenario and gets a good snow. It has been about 10 years since the fall line got a good snow.

Amen Brother.

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5 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

Good luck getting that!  I knew we were sunk when I woke up at 3am and the temps were still around 37 and the radar was anemic.  I'll take my rate driven dusting this afternoon and join you in February.

Guys be careful wishing for Feb/March, both look to be mild to warm right now (which is typical of Nina's) so stay focused on Jan as it might be the only chance we have

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3 hours ago, MichaelJ said:

Guys be careful wishing for Feb/March, both look to be mild to warm right now (which is typical of Nina's) so stay focused on Jan as it might be the only chance we have

What are you basing the FEB/March mild to warm? 

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Raleigh still not on the board this season. Given it is La Nina, time is running out.

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10 hours ago, Avdave said:

What are you basing the FEB/March mild to warm? 

Sorry Dave, just now saw this. I base it on the Nina history, the indices look to be turning against us in late Jan ( AO becoming positive, PNA going neutral to negative, MJO heading into the warm phases and the NAO going pretty neutral and the EPO going positive)

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21 minutes ago, griteater said:

Forecast Verification (I used the accumulation maps from Eric Webb for verification):

jNP15LB.png

HauNtEN.jpg

8QsfSPu.jpg

Those maps are terrible 

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Just now, griteater said:

Ha, where is it off?

It has all of McDowell under 4 inches and I don't think anyone in the county had that unless you were right along the Blue Ridge. Most of the county had under 2 inches and some under 1. The NWS snowfall map was more detailed. 

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I would also contend that no one in Hickory had an inch of snow. Two dustings (one at dawn and one at 4 PM) might add up to 0.5 inch, though. Baker's Mt in Catawba County did have between 1-2 inches, but not Hickory. Their elevation sure helped, I suppose.

Sent from my moto e5 supra using Tapatalk

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