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Eskimo Joe

January Banter 2021

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Just now, wawarriors4 said:

I love when the South Central PA guys come to our sub-forum saying how the GFS looks just awesome for everyone.....**checks notes**.....oh right the GFS shows 25" for you and I get stuck with an 8 incher....not that I'm complaining.

I saw that, I was like yeah ok

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3 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

I love when the South Central PA guys come to our sub-forum saying how the GFS looks just awesome for everyone.....**checks notes**.....oh right the GFS shows 25" for you and I get stuck with an 8 incher....not that I'm complaining.

There’s a scenario where you actually do better than up here IMO.  WAA targets Central VA and CCB targets north of Baltimore.  

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3 minutes ago, nj2va said:

There’s a scenario where you actually do better than up here IMO.  WAA targets Central VA and CCB targets north of Baltimore.  

Yeah, I have been following that. I've been hoping to get the WAA part as juiced up as possible, in EZF we get back side lovin as frequently as the Flyers win the Stanley Cup

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I’ve got nothing of value to add to the main thread, but lol at the cmc, 2.5” qpf imby :lol:

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Just now, wawarriors4 said:

Yeah, I have been following that. I've been hoping to get the WAA part as juiced up as possible, in EZF we get back side lovin as frequently as the Flyers win the Stanley Cup

Yup, same for me.  Give me like 0.5-0.6” QPF as snow Sunday and I could give two Fs what happens with the coastal.  Miller Bs hate DC and the trends 00z show why.

And eeeeeek, I just realized you’re a Flyers fan (makes sense with the profile picture!).  You just lost a few points for me. :P 

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4 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’ve got nothing of value to add to the main thread, but lol at the cmc, 2.5” qpf imby :lol:

2.5"....It's not farfetched...that's what's awesome about it . The general h5 setup argues for a biggie . Someone will get crushed with feet no doubt about it . 

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5 minutes ago, mappy said:

I’ve got nothing of value to add to the main thread, but lol at the cmc, 2.5” qpf imby :lol:

Not sure why anyone on the board from BWI north isn't smoking a cig and staring dreamily at that. Weird to see complaining/worry from anyone Route 32 and north after a run like that. 

That's close to max potential for us. Beyond, even. Not gonna happen, obviously, but fun to see a crazy run from one of the models this close in. 

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5 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Yup, same for me.  Give me like 0.5-0.6” QPF as snow Sunday and I could give two Fs what happens with the coastal.  Miller Bs hate DC and the trends 00z show why.

And eeeeeek, I just realized you’re a Flyers fan (makes sense with the profile picture!).  You just lost a few points for me. :P 

Yeah, I know suppression was talked about a whole bunch, and for a while things moved South, but having lived near Fredericksburg now since 2009-2010 pretty much, I've come to know what usually happens and that's that the CCB pummels NE MD and North of here in general, so I'll take my Snow on the front end and be happy. #JuiceUpTheWAA

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Just now, losetoa6 said:

2.5"....It's not farfetched...that's what's awesome about it . The general h5 setup argues for a biggie . Someone will get crushed with feet no doubt about it . 

ha, if only! I’ll happily take the gfs output that psu so clearly defined with his precip maps

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Not sure why anyone on the board from BWI north isn't smoking a cig and staring dreamily at that. Weird to see complaining/worry after a run like that. 

That's close to max potential for us. Beyond, even. Not gonna happen, obviously, but fun to see a crazy run from one of the models this close in. 

Remember....Euro was spitting out 20"-30" a couple days ago . It saw the potential then 

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Not sure why anyone on the board from BWI north isn't smoking a cig and staring dreamily at that. Weird to see complaining/worry from anyone Route 32 and north after a run like that. 

That's close to max potential for us. Beyond, even. Not gonna happen, obviously, but fun to see a crazy run from one of the models this close in. 

The cmc, icon and regem were all 2” or more qpf imby. Just stupid wet lol

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I’ll post the kuchera map from weather bell when it loads for the cmc but holy hell.

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Just now, North Balti Zen said:

Not sure why anyone on the board from BWI north isn't smoking a cig and staring dreamily at that. Weird to see complaining/worry from anyone Route 32 and north after a run like that. 

That's close to max potential for us. Beyond, even. Not gonna happen, obviously, but fun to see a crazy run from one of the models this close in. 

I think part of it is because this whole setup and the various scenarios between the WAA and the CCB is kinda confusing (I mean it is for me, at least), so it's a little hard to know where your yard is at outside of the snowfall maps themselves.

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Just now, mappy said:

The cmc, icon and regem were all 2” or more qpf imby. Just stupid wet lol

Your wedding weekend dealie was that wet, right? I recall Dec. 2009 storm being more QPF than the Feb. ones. 

We need to herd some of the Balt worriers out of the disco thread by the way...

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1 minute ago, LP08 said:

I’ll post the kuchera map from weather bell when it loads for the cmc but holy hell.

Holy hell for some random poster in PA or for us too?

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Just now, nj2va said:

Holy hell for some random poster in PA or for us too?

Mostly Baltimore friends up to PSU, Losetoa6, and Mappy but we do alright.

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2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

Not sure why anyone on the board from BWI north isn't smoking a cig and staring dreamily at that. Weird to see complaining/worry after a run like that. 

That's close to max potential for us. Beyond, even. Not gonna happen, obviously, but fun to see a crazy run from one of the models this close in. 

Probably not, but it is on the table.  Wish we could see 2 feet from VA to PA, but some will be blessed and some will lose.  Hoping Baltimore is blessed!!  I do fear this thing ends up north and we get missed from the backside.

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Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

I think part of it is because this whole setup and the various scenarios between the WAA and the CCB is kinda confusing (I mean it is for me, at least), so it's a little hard to know where your yard is at outside of the snowfall maps themselves.

Strong system pumping good QPF and an early stout transfer would be ideal, tucked into the coast. 

I don't know that it is ALWAYS related, but in this particular set-up, weaker system with less qpf on the front end is resulting in a sloppier later transfer and late CCB. See, the NAMs. But they are mostly on their own on that right now. 

Just take the CMC somewhere private and be happy for an hour before something else causes worry. 

I think we can be safe in expecting warning level snow Sunday and Monday. Let's start there for Balt City...

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1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Your wedding weekend dealie was that wet, right? I recall Dec. 2009 storm being more QPF than the Feb. ones. 

We need to herd some of the Balt worriers out of the disco thread by the way...

22” where we got married in Frederick county. Couldn’t tell you what kind of setup it was, I was pretty preoccupied the week prior :D

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Random question here that I've been meaning to ask for awhile.  What really is the difference between the 10:1 and Kuchera methods?  Well, obviously 10:1 is what it says (and it includes sleet).  But does Kuchera take into account sleet, dryness of the snow, varying ratios over time, etc.?

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Just now, mappy said:

22” where we got married in Frederick county. Couldn’t tell you what kind of setup it was, I was pretty preoccupied the week prior :D

Some of the sat pics from the Dec 2009 storm showed the moisture flow back to Hawaii I think. That one was a QPF monster compared to the Feb ones, I think. Hope the CMC is right on QPF and temps, would benefit most of our forum. 

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2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

 


could we suppress that... I dunno... 50 to 100 miles south and slightly west?

 

That would be great, but I’m not holding out hope. This comes to mind.....

image.thumb.png.8561810b6b83d3d4aae87efab322d465.png

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