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40/70 Benchmark

January 2021

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First off... Open YOUR eyes. It does not state the GEFS is favored over the ECMWF. It sais it is stronger than the ECWMF regarding tje ridging over Alaska.  If this is the way you want to speak to people than maybe you should get some lessons in humility. I find this forum full of bullying and rudeness. You might be able to talk to someone else like this, but not me. This forum isnt even enjoyable to come to with so many any remarks. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I already had my melt....early this AM. I should start to re consolidate and regain control of my emotions. 

I’m thinking a hugger is more likely than a cutter but let’s see how the next few days trend on the models.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I already had my melt....early this AM. I should start to re consolidate and regain control of my emotions. 

YES!!! Ray coming back online!

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6 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

First off... Open YOUR eyes. It does not state the GEFS is favored over the ECMWF. It sais it is stronger than the ECWMF regarding tje ridging over Alaska.  If this is the way you want to speak to people than maybe you should get some lessons in humility. I find this forum full of bullying and rudeness. You might be able to talk to someone else like this, but not me. This forum isnt even enjoyable to come to with so many any remarks. 

You must be illiterate. I said it indicates that the GEFS is MORE FAVORABLE....ie for a wintry outcome, NOT favored. Your posts are consistently meteorologically vapid and idiotic. 

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3 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

I’m thinking a hugger is more likely than a cutter but let’s see how the next few days trend on the models.

18z GEFS had a hugger as well.

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10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You must be illiterate. I said it indicates that the GEFS is MORE FAVORABLE....ie for a wintry outcome, NOT favored. Your posts are consistently vapid and idiotic. 

And again.. It sais nothing of the kind. " More favorable "  is no where to be said in this tweet. It clearly states that the GEFS shows stronger ridging over Alaska, resulting in a stronger -NAO. But no where does it say it is favored over the ECMWF. Its ok that you don't know how to decipher what this tweet is trying to get across, thats why I am here to school you. Btw.. You must enjoy speaking to people like they are stupid. I do feel sorry for you though...usually people who have to put down others are lacking in there own self esteem. Hopefully you can learn from this and treat others with some respect. I'm sure when you become an adult, you will get what im saying. ( I think you are still in your mid-melt phase ) 

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3 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

And again.. It sais nothing of the kind. " More favorable "  is no where to be said in this tweet. It clearly states that the GEFS shows stronger ridging over Alaska, resulting in a stronger -NAO. But no where does it say it is favored over the ECMWF. Its ok that you don't know how to decipher what this tweet is trying to get across, thats why I am here to school you. Btw.. You must enjoy speaking to people like they are stupid. I do feel sorry for you though...usually people who have to put down others are lacking in there own self esteem. Hopefully you can learn from this and treat others with some respect. I'm sure when you become an adult, you will get what im saying. ( I think you are still in your mid-melt phase ) 

EPS tends to be the better guidance so therefore that is favored. However, that is not always the case, and a compromise can always happen. But the GEFS are less skillful. 

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13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Funny thing is, aside from the PNA, which I blew this season, this January has really validated my outlook....but it's just so tough to take. Very mundane...

I think in your outlook, you mentioned mid January, today is the 9th...........I have faith, this is a boring period, something will pop soon, hope you are your family have recovered from Covid

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6 hours ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Here's something I found interesting that gives hope to the pattern change. Thoughts?

Screenshot_20210109-124032.png

 

16 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

And again.. It sais nothing of the kind. " More favorable "  is no where to be said in this tweet. It clearly states that the GEFS shows stronger ridging over Alaska, resulting in a stronger -NAO. But no where does it say it is favored over the ECMWF. Its ok that you don't know how to decipher what this tweet is trying to get across, thats why I am here to school you. Btw.. You must enjoy speaking to people like they are stupid. I do feel sorry for you though...usually people who have to put down others are lacking in there own self esteem. Hopefully you can learn from this and treat others with some respect. I'm sure when you become an adult, you will get what im saying. ( I think you are still in your mid-melt phase ) 

Okay, I am going to temper my visceral reaction and give you the benefit of the doubt, assuming that you would like to learn, and perhaps your emotions are handicapping your reading comprehension a bit.

The tweet indicates that the GEFS have better ridging over AK, and a more classic NAO, which is why it has a colder pattern over N America. Since ridging over AK helps to facilitate the delivery of cold into the CONUS, and the NAO helps to hold it while modulating the storm track in a favorable manner,  THIS IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FANS OF WINTER WEATHER. That is all I meant by favorable....NOT that any guidance is favored over the other.

However, I did imply that I would rather have the EPS depicting the more favorable outcome for snow and cold, since it is the more skilled guidance.

I am really trying not to lose my patience here, and I think this is my final attempt.

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9 minutes ago, 512high said:

I think in your outlook, you mentioned mid January, today is the 9th...........I have faith, this is a boring period, something will pop soon, hope you are your family have recovered fro Covid

Nah, mid December was noted in the outlook for the original favorable period, which worked out. But due to some bad luck with the NAO block being a bit displaced to the south, it didn't last as long as I had thought. For January, I implied a relatively quiet stretch, with near normal to slightly above normal attempts, and mixed events.

I actually mentioned in the write up that I felt as though there would be a propensity for the NAO blocking to be biased east, so pretty close.

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20 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

 

Okay, I am going to temper my visceral reaction and give you the benefit of the doubt, assuming that you would like to learn, and perhaps your emotions are handicapping your reading comprehension a bit.

The tweet indicates that the GEFS have better ridging over AK, and a more classic NAO, which is why it has a colder pattern over N America. Since ridging over AK helps to facilitate the delivery of cold into the CONUS, and the NAO helps to hold it while modulating the storm track in a favorable manner,  THIS IS MORE FAVORABLE FOR FANS OF WINTER WEATHER. That is all I meant by favorable....NOT that any guidance is favored over the other.

However, I did imply that I would rather have the EPS depicting the more favorable outcome for snow and cold, since it is the more skilled guidance.

I am really trying not to lose my patience here, and I think this is my final attempt.

Lololololol. Thanks for my lesson. Don't want you to lose your temper. Haha

Lets take it as we viewed it differently. Yes.. It can most definitely go either way. In the end, I think we are both looking for the same result however, and thats some cold and good snows! Here's to hoping.

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5 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Lololololol. Thanks for my lesson. Don't want you to lose your temper. Haha

Lets take it as we viewed it differently. Yes.. It can most definitely go either way. In the end, I think we are both looking for the same result however, and thats some cold and good snows! Here's to hoping.

No problem. Hopefully that GEFS solution is more accurate,  but my guess is the end result will be more tempered.

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Okay... reluctantly, I'll concede to "a signal" 17-18th ...around D9 and 10 coming from the GEFs...

Most of the members, including this V16 as I'm sure the 'cinema goers' are well aware .. carry substantial trough through the east, some with embedded importance to varying degrees.  It's probably about what we could expect in terms of focus/shapeliness of any feature at that range for two-fold.

Here's my reluctance and the problem I have with determinism here ...and it transcends the usual D9 perfunctory doubt.  That longer-lead is made indeterminably even worse because it is on the other side of a regime change threshold. 

I'm always quite leery of any siggy event on the other side of a 'pattern boundary' ... too many moving parts have to evade fractal mechanics and guidance can't really do that ...  The whole of its dependence becomes very non-linear in the wave physical mechanics - ha! It's like you gotta apply the Schrodinger's equation to the field...  My bet?  prooobably something emerges on the guidance envelope ... materializing on the far side of said boundary ... but it could be a Para-G category III white 'cane, or... something of a pearled out stretch series... Said threshold is D5 + in guidance blends; you can see the speedy might of the Pacific fist punching across the CONUS and leads us into a parade pattern off the pacific.  The questions abound of course.. Like, does the pattern D6-10 become more zonal with velocity and jet momentum carrying the amplitude expression?  Or, is there more curvi-linear structures ... It tend to think the former is more likely due to velocity interfering with curved surfaces.. favoring longitude. 

Man, patience wears ... It would be nice if the flirtations with the 14th could actually wet ... or shall we say, 'whiten' appetites.

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20 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Okay... reluctantly, I'll concede to "a signal" 17-18th ...around D9 and 10 coming from the GEFs...

Most of the members, including this V16 as I'm sure the 'cinema goers' are well aware .. carry substantial trough through the east, some with embedded importance to varying degrees.  It's probably about what we could expect in terms of focus/shapeliness of any feature at that range for two-fold.

Here's my reluctance and the problem I have with determinism here ...and it transcends the usual D9 perfunctory doubt.  That longer-lead is made indeterminably even worse because it is on the other side of a regime change threshold. 

I'm always quite leery of any siggy event on the other side of a 'pattern boundary' ... too many moving parts have to evade fractal mechanics and guidance can't really do that ...  The whole of its dependence becomes very non-linear in the wave physical mechanics - ha! It's like you gotta apply the Schrodinger's equation to the field...  My bet?  prooobably something emerges on the guidance envelope ... materializing on the far side of said boundary ... but it could be a Para-G category III white 'cane, or... something of a pearled out stretch series... Said threshold is D5 + in guidance blends; you can see the speedy might of the Pacific fist punching across the CONUS and leads us into a parade pattern off the pacific.  The questions abound of course.. Like, does the pattern D6-10 become more zonal with velocity and jet momentum carrying the amplitude expression?  Or, is there more curvi-linear structures ... It tend to think the former is more likely due to velocity interfering with curved surfaces.. favoring longitude. 

Man, patience wears ... It would be nice if the flirtations with the 14th could actually wet ... or shall we say, 'whiten' appetites.

Whet 

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58 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Wish we lived there 

 

Wish we got to wander around old European cities during a record snowfall... bucket list stuff.

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1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

EPS tends to be the better guidance so therefore that is favored. However, that is not always the case, and a compromise can always happen. But the GEFS are less skillful. 

Hasn't the GEFS been more right though this winter so far?. Plus there was an improvement on the 12z EPS vs 00Z EPS. With some higher heights over AK. Also the -NAO suppresses the Southeast Ridge

 

 
 
 
ciLsGRb-_bigger.jpg
 
Replying to
MJO signal (independent from the base state, which resists this outcome), suggests a western N. America ridge: http://http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc/indexmjo.html

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14 minutes ago, leo2000 said:

Hasn't the GEFS been more right though this winter so far?. 

 

 
 
 
ciLsGRb-_bigger.jpg
 
Replying to
MJO signal (independent from the base state, which resists this outcome), suggests a western N. America ridge: http://http://www.atmos.albany.edu/facstaff/roundy/waves/rmmcyc
 
depends what he means by ‘western ridge’
 
right now the only discernible phase emerges in 3 then moves into 4 at low amplitude no less ...Which in the maelstrom of a very fast compressed atmosphere probably means that any MJO dispersion is getting absorbed/damped anyway. 

Fast flow actually favors of modestly amplified West Ridge by curvature so amplified Ridge could be expressed in the velocity momentum in other words a longitudinal Ridge in which case he be right but he doesn’t specify that - 

When someone says western North American ridge Ridge Ridge Ridge people tend to dress her out in their mind like some tall arcing sloped flow in Western Canada ... it’ll be interesting 

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50 minutes ago, 78Blizzard said:

Days and days of melts...

Lol right ... it’s called 40 F afternoons under a slowly creeping higher sun 

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44 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Lol right ... it’s called 40 F afternoons under a slowly creeping higher sun 

At least we have SSTs going down for the next couple of months.  ;)

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