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January 2021

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6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That is the Miami Rule on steroids!!! wow...

It can effect S/W morphology and cyclogen effectiveness in a different ways, but complete and utter vanquish absorption is rare actually.  And, the model does it twice!  First with the one that is lingering over S. Cal at 72 hours - takes that one over the Arklotex as a water-color and there's nothing identifiable of it 1100 km later over Tennessee.   Then, the would-be system we've been denying we're tracking for the 26th it does the same thing.   Neither feature even exists past the TV...

How about the size of the polar high though??  my goodness... the entire domain of ORD-ATL-DCA is one big damming signal -

Too many oddities in a single run ...willing to bet as others are joking - this is different in another cycle.

A few more runs like those of the past 2 days and the models risk becoming a laughingstock.    :facepalm:  Perhaps they should go the way of the Ukie with 144 hrs only.

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Little weenie walking around along with squalls in the distance...snowed hard at Quabbin for 10 minutes or so.. 

Edit: picture wont upload for some reason

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1 minute ago, ineedsnow said:

Little weenie walking around along with squalls in the distance...snowed hard at Quabbin for 10 minutes or so.. 

A half hour ago we had a few ice pellets with the temp at 42F.

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22 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

I wonder if we will have a few chances once the block starts breaking down

That’s what I’m leaning towards. A more balanced look between the atl and the pac would lead to better results...and during peak climo at that. I’m not worried. 

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19 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

That’s what I’m leaning towards. A more balanced look between the atl and the pac would lead to better results...and during peak climo at that. I’m not worried. 

Yea, that what I have favored....if you are looking for near climo, don't worry.....Jan 2011 has problems.

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4 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Ens say it looks exactly like that thru Jan 31

At this point let’s start Rooting that.  Let’s see if we can go for a shut out the whole month.  
 

Maybe it changes the juju...? Lol. 

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Need to see a trend before I jump in on the Friday/Saturday storm threat since the 18z NAM is the first run to show what I mean.  The southern stream disturbance/ie upper trough and closed upper low over the Baja, CA region previously was caught in the same place and awaited energy further down the line in the northern stream to dive southward and capture the energy, however, the most recent 18z NAM shows by 72 hours that the energy begins to become progressive and moves out ahead of the 22nd northern stream shortwave/closed upper level low that phases with the vortex over central Southern Canada over the next 72 hours and brings with it an intense arctic air mass, 850mb temps below -12C.  If trends continue or if this is more than just a blip run on the NAM, we will know at 00z, maybe more sampling of the northern stream energy involved, then this could lead to a potential phasing storm system in the 96 hour window.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Need to see a trend before I jump in on the Friday/Saturday storm threat since the 18z NAM is the first run to show what I mean.  The southern stream disturbance/ie upper trough and closed upper low over the Baja, CA region previously was caught in the same place and awaited energy further down the line in the northern stream to dive southward and capture the energy, however, the most recent 18z NAM shows by 72 hours that the energy begins to become progressive and moves out ahead of the 22nd northern stream shortwave/closed upper level low that phases with the vortex over central Southern Canada over the next 72 hours and brings with it an intense arctic air mass, 850mb temps below -12C.  If trends continue or if this is more than just a blip run on the NAM, we will know at 00z, maybe more sampling of the northern stream energy involved, then this could lead to a potential phasing storm system in the 96 hour window.

Not gonna happen.

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1 minute ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

Need to see a trend before I jump in on the Friday/Saturday storm threat since the 18z NAM is the first run to show what I mean.  The southern stream disturbance/ie upper trough and closed upper low over the Baja, CA region previously was caught in the same place and awaited energy further down the line in the northern stream to dive southward and capture the energy, however, the most recent 18z NAM shows by 72 hours that the energy begins to become progressive and moves out ahead of the 22nd northern stream shortwave/closed upper level low that phases with the vortex over central Southern Canada over the next 72 hours and brings with it an intense arctic air mass, 850mb temps below -12C.  If trends continue or if this is more than just a blip run on the NAM, we will know at 00z, maybe more sampling of the northern stream energy involved, then this could lead to a potential phasing storm system in the 96 hour window.

Beer?

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I will say that Rockies ridge after day 10 does have legs. That would be why the EPS was trying for action. It also leads into Feb which for now, does not look to be starting as a typical Feb Nina. It’s frustrating as hell for someone like me as we roll snake eyes, but eventually one or more of these should work out. 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I will say that Rockies ridge after day 10 does have legs. That would be why the EPS was trying for action. It also leads into Feb which for now, does not look to be starting as a typical Feb Nina. It’s frustrating as hell for someone like me as we roll snake eyes, but eventually one or more of these should work out. 

I am telling you Scott, if the NAM is not a fluke run, we could be having something boil up in the next 24-48 hours and within 72 hours!

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4 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

I am telling you Scott, if the NAM is not a fluke run, we could be having something boil up in the next 24-48 hours and within 72 hours!

Tossed 

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48 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said:

Mid January at 1000’ 10mi from the VT border.

Sad

3C93AA18-796F-49BC-B21C-D369B35C5034.thumb.jpeg.d4c28ff7fff467f1c501f4632f9e1b1e.jpeg

Snow cover gets pretty solid only a few miles west of you at 1000'.   I was up on 112 in Colrain and went all the way to Searsburg and Wilmington Vt.  Winter got progressively deeper by the mile near the MA, VT border.  Deep Winter in Southern VT.  Kids had blast sledding near Wilmington. 

IMG_20210117_134703968.jpg

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2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Boil up a pan of these and slap across face.

https://i.imgur.com/joZr3qX.gifv

If you ask me, I would rather monitor something like this, then say it is all over for the next ten days!  Sorry if I am a little optimistic, I think we all need to be right now and not lose our dignity!

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3 minutes ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

If you ask me, I would rather monitor something like this, then say it is all over for the next ten days!  Sorry if I am a little optimistic, I think we all need to be right now and not lose our dignity!

There’s zero reason for any optimism. It was supposed to start snowing 2 weeks ago and we’ve had a wire to wire 0.0”

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Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s zero reason for any optimism. It was supposed to start snowing 2 weeks ago and we’ve had a wire to wire 0.0”

There are always reasons to be optimistic!

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1 hour ago, ineedsnow said:

Little weenie walking around along with squalls in the distance...snowed hard at Quabbin for 10 minutes or so.. 

Edit: picture wont upload for some reason

We have had snow showers of and on yesterday and today here... total of maybe 0.1"

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2 minutes ago, CT Valley Snowman said:

For me it's worth the drive just to see the smiles and excitement.  This was at Dutch Hill near Mitch in Readsboro, VT.  About 1 hour and 30 minute drive.  

IMG_20210117_122602048.jpg

Now that's the spirit.  I did that for my kids, was only a 20 minute drive to Foster RI but they still bring it up 35 years later

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Western Mass is a solid upslope location following departing lows or from upper-air impulses. With the weekend system long gone, are this week's very persistent snows because of the juicier Pac air carried on west winds?

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