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January 2021


40/70 Benchmark
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2 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

I understand...and figured as much.  Sounds good to me.  Like Luke,  I’m liking where we’re headed.  
 

I’m so over the grey dry sh*t of the last month.  

We asked for blocking and here we are .

I wish I was born near the lakes so I dont have to worry about this crap.

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Just now, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think he favors a big event. Maybe we define big. I’m saying I would not favor something dropping a foot or more. I just don’t rule it out.  There are still some questions with this pattern. 

Well Ray did say, he would be shocked if we didn't get two events by the end of this month, and at least one warning event, lol, might be back like 30 pages of this thread.............i am with others, i will take whatever snow we can get, as i sit with over 1.18" at 43F on Jan. 16, 

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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I don’t think he favors a big event. Maybe we define big. I’m saying I would not favor something dropping a foot or more. I just don’t rule it out.  There are still some questions with this pattern. 

Nothing wrong with 3-5” or 4-8”, I like those type of events.  Even 2-4” if you get closer to the 4” end.  
 

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5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Nothing wrong with 3-5” or 4-8”, I like those type of events.  Even 2-4” if you get closer to the 4” end.  
 

Yeah like a regionwide 4-8" event or two with 6-12" iso 12" on the coastal plain, Cape and Islands due to their closer proximity to the storm and ocean moisture source

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9 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

We asked for blocking and here we are .

I wish I was born near the lakes so I dont have to worry about this crap.

I guess you can think of it this way Ant....it’s the things that you don’t get that much of, that often, that you appreciate the most.  When you do get a solid event...you love it and appreciate it that much more, because of where you are.  
 

 

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1 hour ago, tamarack said:

Do you take that route to enrich the Empire State?  Our IL trips (to DEC not CHI) go 84-81-80, etc.  No tolls west of the Hudson.  Mapquest said the Buffalo trail was 9 minutes quicker (for a 1,300-mile drive :P), though that time might be squandered on 90 west of Sturbridge.

Had 0.2" earlier, nothing during the past 90 minutes.  P&C says 1-2" here + 1"+ RA.

Straight 90 all the way.  Easy Pass makes you forget the tolls until you see the bill...lol. Wait-you use Mapquest?   We just put it into the phone and follow directions (most often use Waze).  I have found 84 on the west side of Hartford is jammed with traffic more often than not but that’s a different subject.  Snow in the forecast for our trip and in Chicago.

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53 minutes ago, 512high said:

Well Ray did say, he would be shocked if we didn't get two events by the end of this month, and at least one warning event, lol, might be back like 30 pages of this thread.............i am with others, i will take whatever snow we can get, as i sit with over 1.18" at 43F on Jan. 16, 

Warning event is a HECS? 

I'm done for a few days....man.

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On 12/26/2020 at 11:58 AM, 40/70 Benchmark said:

December worked out okay, except for the fact that it was PNA and not RNA....this caused the se and se to flip anomalies from what was forecast.

Most of the forecast for January still appears valid...trends for less "blocking" and perhaps more PNA intervals again as the  month progresses. The lower heights towards AK have already began materializing, but the N ATL ridding has not yet began to abate. I would look for signs of that in longer range guidance as the New Year approaches.

January 2021 Outlook

January Forecast H5 Composite:

The active winter pattern may carry over into the first week or so of January, or it may not. This is nebulous, but what is clear is that any residual positive height anomalies should vacate the higher latitudes, as lower heights retrograde towards Alaska. The structure and character of la nina begins to assume a more modoki state, as it peaks and begins to decay. The Aleutian ridge relocates to the southeast, away from Alaska. Heights near the pole should not be exceeding low, nor the temperature departures extremely high like January 20202. But nevertheless, the pattern grows relatively hostile to sustained wintery interludes in the east.
 
 
Screen%2BShot%2B2020-11-03%2Bat%2B1.42.0

January Forecast Temperature Composite:

Temperatures should be near normal to 1 degree above across northern New England, 1-3 degrees above normal in central and southern New England, and 2-3 degrees above in the mid atlantic. Any storm activity will entail large precipitation type issues near the coast, with the most snow reserved for northern New England. The RNA pattern should only strengthen, as overall storm activity wanes.
 
 
Screen%2BShot%2B2020-11-03%2Bat%2B1.29.3
 

January Forecast Precipitation Composite:

A lull in winter for the northeast, especially below the latitude of northern New England and east of New York state, should develop during the month, as storms becomes less frequent and the predominate track shifts inland. Some seasonal cold bouts should be sufficient for some mountain snow, and perhaps some "front end" wintery precipitation further to the south.
 
Screen%2BShot%2B2020-11-03%2Bat%2B1.40.2

Apparently some need a reminder.

Have a good holiday weekend.

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