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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021

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3 minutes ago, BullCityWx said:

NORTH SIIIIIDE

I wouldnt mind a shift 25 miles south. I really need to use my 4WD to get the gears all lubricated and drive in the snow again:snowman:

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Just now, Avdave said:

If we could knock it south some you wouldnt have to worry about ice ;):D

Can you imagine if this happened. 5 inches 15 miles north of me while I’m driving looking for a dusting.  Could I start my very own whining thread just to talk to myself. Lol. Glad we have something to watch. Get the Tylenol out

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12 minutes ago, buckeyefan1 said:

I’m gonna need this not to be ice for mby :bag:

Is your location correct? Fountain Inn? We are pretty far south but maybe we get lucky 

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18 minutes ago, Avdave said:

I wouldnt mind a shift 25 miles south. I really need to use my 4WD to get the gears all lubricated and drive in the snow again:snowman:

I wouldn’t mind a 25 mile shift south either.  I really need to see how my lotus does in the snow

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11 minutes ago, Avdave said:

If we could knock it south some you wouldnt have to worry about ice ;):D

It would have to come south by a lot :lol:

3 minutes ago, Grayman said:

Is your location correct? Fountain Inn? We are pretty far south but maybe we get lucky 

Yep. I’m in Fountain Inn. Verbatim the 18z gfs says mby is 37-38, a dp of 29 with 850’s at +2-3 when the moisture arrives. It will trend colder, but how much and how much colder throughout the column is the question that we wait the answer to. 

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1 hour ago, BornAgain13 said:

The 18z GFS looks like December 2018

It’s really close to identical honestly, just shifted north a bit causing differences on the southern fringes and down along the southern blue ridge escarpment. Selfishly would love to see it move just a bit more towards this look, definitely looking like there’s potential for someone to get a big one out of this though.9E1563B6-E8D1-4478-9D4B-EE767FEF46CE.jpeg.7dbb23aa98fe291c7389f78702b42914.jpeg

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This afternoon, RAH made their first mention of next week’s possible storm:

Quote
Models then project another shot of Arctic air ahead of yet another
southern stream wave racing from the southern US to the OH Valley by
Thursday.  This would result in another period of CAD and well below
normal temperatures, with some small potential for wintry weather
based on a little better phasing and placement of high pressure over
eastern Canada.  In the case of both of next weeks systems, and
particularly the late week system, the shortwaves and jet energy of
interest are still out over the north Pacific, so confidence is
below average.

 

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1 hour ago, Avdave said:

I was just going to say the same thing, that was a good storm here near RDU. 

That was a fun storm for everybody north and west of Raleigh. I remember sweating the transition line as it wavered back and forth in southern Wake county. Hopefully this next storm trends just a little colder putting more in play. Many model runs from now to "go time". 

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26 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

It’s really close to identical honestly, just shifted north a bit causing differences on the southern fringes and down along the southern blue ridge escarpment. Selfishly would love to see it move just a bit more towards this look, definitely looking like there’s potential for someone to get a big one out of this though.9E1563B6-E8D1-4478-9D4B-EE767FEF46CE.jpeg.7dbb23aa98fe291c7389f78702b42914.jpeg

This brings up painful memories. Another great shutout event for me. Dang I had forgotten about that nightmare lol

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32 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Mood swings on this board are in a league of their own. Honestly flipping more than the models are on this system 

Raises hand - I'm one of those that is wishy-washy / mood swingy with this one.  Some model runs here and there are intriguing for sure, but on the flip side the wave track and sfc high setup to the north could easily far apart with just some slight changes.  The Euro run last night was a mini-disaster, but has since improved some.  And as @ILMRoss mentioned earlier today, the UKMet today looked pretty good at hr144.  Here's the 18z GFS.  Nice wave track and nice damming shown (though many need it further south for sure).  Still hard to beat the 4-panel ewall images

Ix38y4k.gif

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18 hours ago, SnowDawg said:

I mean is the source cold air just pathetic for peak winter? A 1044 high and a surface low in North Florida on the Para and its still almost all rain in NE GA damming regions. 9 times out of 10 I swear a high that strong puts us in the game in the past.

Coming back to this.  Correct, the strong high is there north of the Great Lakes with a good damming signature....but the second part of the equation is what you mentioned, that is, the pre-storm air mass from Eastern Canada to Florida just isn't very cold.  In the  bottom right panel (850mb temps), the blue line across NY State is -10C...we'd like to see that across OH/PA, and we'd like to see -20C just north of NY State (pink line which is up in NW Canada).  Also note the +10C is in C GA...so yeah, that's not as cold as we'd like to see it prior to the storm rolling in.  The less than optimal Pacific side pattern so far this winter is mostly to blame I'd say for the lack of cold across North America.  But again, the placement of surface features (highs/lows) is only part of the equation when it comes to available cold.

neMfkMZ.gif

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2 hours ago, HKY1894 said:

Happy hour delivered. The storm bombs out after this as well NE NC gets rocked

D5E2C0D5-3C56-4AE6-88E9-4BB1A9A37740.png

Oh GOODY!! The rain/snow line literally IS I-85 in CHARLOTTE/CONCORD. 

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2 hours ago, Avdave said:

A closer look at some pron.  Tight gradient too for Durham &Orange County.

Capture.JPG

S.Mecklenburg county= .5"

N.Meck= 5.5"

Literally 20 miles. 

That's our reality + 

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Mood swings on this board are in a league of their own. Honestly flipping more than the models are on this system 

Until the GFS, Euro, Canadian, and UKmet all show a foot of snow from Atlanta to Charlotte to Raleigh, for 10 straight runs, with no mixing issues, and Cookout makes trays under 5 dollars again like they were when I was in high school, there will be mood swings. It is the nature of tracking winter storms in real time.
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15 minutes ago, davenc said:

S.Mecklenburg county= .5"

N.Meck= 5.5"

Literally 20 miles. 

That's our reality + 

I’m with you. I live 60 miles east of you and it would take some work for us.  If you live on the hwy 74 corridor we’ve watched this play out many times. I can’t seem to look away though . 

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1 minute ago, ILMRoss said:


Until the GFS, Euro, Canadian, and UKmet all show a foot of snow from Atlanta to Charlotte to Raleigh, for 10 straight runs, with no mixing issues, and Cookout makes trays under 5 dollars again like they were when I was in high school, there will be mood swings. It is the nature of tracking winter storms in real time.

5.99 in Durham now. I ain’t made of money, people. 

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8 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

18z EPS with a nice CAD look for the system next week with plenty of moisture in coming...26a687bfd2d9d34deec837a43962c048.jpg

Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk
 

I'm not liking the 18z EPS. That piece of the TPV might end up screwing us over.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-z500_anom-1770400.thumb.png.213e013e9286355c95db8b700a4f1772.png

GFS

gfs-deterministic-conus-z500_anom-1770400.thumb.png.9ee7fda18820da667b1826eedc530b38.png

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