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Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
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17 hours ago, Avdave said:

Indeed, we are heading up this weekend and into early next week to NW NC

West Jefferson is starting to get a good number of trees changing already (Poplar, Birch, Elm).  Maples are just starting to get a little color and oaks are still green.  Same for the parkway between Boone and West Jefferson.  East slope into Wilkes county where I am is still pretty much green.

We should be in business starting this weekend.  I plan to go up on the 24th and stay through the 30th.  That should be peak time for my location.

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2 hours ago, mwp1023 said:

West Jefferson is starting to get a good number of trees changing already (Poplar, Birch, Elm).  Maples are just starting to get a little color and oaks are still green.  Same for the parkway between Boone and West Jefferson.  East slope into Wilkes county where I am is still pretty much green.

We should be in business starting this weekend.  I plan to go up on the 24th and stay through the 30th.  That should be peak time for my location.

Thank you for the live update. We will probably be a little to early but hopefully early next week they will get cranking.   Def will be in the boone-WJ stretch.

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11 hours ago, jburns said:

We have a La Niña which tends to give us a warmer and drier winter than normal. :thumbsdown:

We've scored some pretty good storms during a la nina   ;)  Last year was classified as a nina and we were wetter than usual and had no real heat. No, we didn't cash in(although some did much better than others), but it was hands down the best year for opportunities we've had in quite sometime. 

2 hours ago, eyewall said:

Yeah we will probably squeeze out one minor event like the last two years if we are lucky.

Are you sure you're not related to @WidreMann? :P  You've said this every year for at least the past decade regardless. This is the south. We take our chances and hope for the best and don't expect endless opportunities (although it would be nice). What we do get, is a shot or 3 at something frozen to play in. This isn't the NE or even the MA and sharing the channeling by your inner Eeyore from Sept to March, every single year for a decade, becomes really annoying.  :rolleyes:  

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2 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

We've scored some pretty good storms during a la nina   ;)  Last year was classified as a nina and we were wetter than usual and had no real heat. No, we didn't cash in(although some did much better than others), but it was hands down the best year for opportunities we've had in quite sometime. 

Last year never really had any Arctic air, just average temps. Models did give me a historic season, which materialized into one 1.2” overnight snow that was gone by 10 am the next day 

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I was reading that the La Nina may be moderated because of a weak polar vortex that may allow colder air to slip south.  This was noted as an influence last season.  Living in the midlands of SC you always assume the worst but it sounds like we will get a few storms to at least follow along with.  That all I can hope for down here so I might as well enjoy it.  Otherwise, why the hell would you be on this forum?  So enhance the level of disappointment in your life?  Expect the worst, hope for the best and enjoy the show.

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I know no one wants to hear this but this is a pretty substantial extended dry streak we’re in. I know some areas got a ton of rain last week but it all feel in a few hours. Outside of that, and for areas that missed the heaviest of that, it’s been exceptionally dry going back to the second half of September. Looking at models, many areas may not see appreciable rain going into the end of the month. I think we’ve had 4 days total with measurable rain going back almost 4 weeks, albeit 2 of those were significant amounts. The lack of consistency of rain has been noticeable. At my farm in Franklin county, all ponds are several feet down as of this morning 

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2 hours ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Last year never really had any Arctic air, just average temps. Models did give me a historic season, which materialized into one 1.2” overnight snow that was gone by 10 am the next day 

Which was still better than the torch of the past few years. We live in the south, outside of the mountains, and nobody should ever be expecting to play in a winter wonderland, let alone to play for most of the season. I've had 9" of snow overnight that was gone by 10am the next day. It's the south. Enjoy it while it lasts. 

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I'll take my chances.  Last year we had average winter temps.  It felt like winter in NC.  We never got a good +PNA so no real cold air shots to sustain a good snowfall opportunity.  In this part of the country we need an extreme combination to occur.  The static-ness of last year did not afford that really.   We might see one or two of those occur in a La Nina

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Christian Morgan:  It's that time where we start looking for our first freeze. For the Triad, it's usually around Oct 28th. On average, about a week earlier north and west.

For Greensboro, it has come as early as Oct 2nd or as late as Dec 1.

I don't see us getting to 32° over the next week.
#ncwx https://t.co/xvPVw75DA1

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4 hours ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Christian Morgan:  It's that time where we start looking for our first freeze. For the Triad, it's usually around Oct 28th. On average, about a week earlier north and west.

For Greensboro, it has come as early as Oct 2nd or as late as Dec 1.

I don't see us getting to 32° over the next week.
#ncwx https://t.co/xvPVw75DA1

We used to get them in mid November but lately it has been in late Nov or early Dec.

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On 10/15/2021 at 8:42 PM, buckeyefan1 said:

^^^^^^^^^ THIS ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^  

 

With another reinforcing front a few days later, giving us a beautiful stretch of fall weather to take us into November  :wub:    

I will say it's been noticeable how warm we're staying this year in the Lowcountry. I'm keeping the pool good until at least Halloween, giving me about a 7 month swimming season. I don't see us dipping below 70° highs until then

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6 hours ago, nwohweather said:

I will say it's been noticeable how warm we're staying this year in the Lowcountry. I'm keeping the pool good until at least Halloween, giving me about a 7 month swimming season. I don't see us dipping below 70° highs until then

Some years the pool is good all year, minus a couple weeks in Jan  :lol:   I've done the pelican plunge a few times Jan 1st on Hunting Island and even the ocean temps aren't that bad  ^_^  

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18 hours ago, nwohweather said:

I will say it's been noticeable how warm we're staying this year in the Lowcountry. I'm keeping the pool good until at least Halloween, giving me about a 7 month swimming season. I don't see us dipping below 70° highs until then

Looking good for my newly planted fescue root production.

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14 hours ago, buckeyefan1 said:

Some years the pool is good all year, minus a couple weeks in Jan  :lol:   I've done the pelican plunge a few times Jan 1st on Hunting Island and even the ocean temps aren't that bad  ^_^  

You know, my family from Ohio did not honestly believe me that ocean temps were as warm as they are. Took them over to Folly and the water temp was 83, was just a look of pure shock. Even right now it's still 74° out there. Very swimmable this weekend

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1 hour ago, Avdave said:

Well looks like Ill be using my AC more this winter/ Good thing our tech comes out tomorrow for the 2 nd service per our contract. Also the drought looks to continue

It could end up like that, but I'm leaning towards something similar to last year with nina to neutral as we head into spring. Also, there is no drought here  :D  

20211019_southeast_text.jpg 

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