Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    16,802
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Enzo Campetella
    Newest Member
    Enzo Campetella
    Joined

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2021


jburns
 Share

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

ICON straight up doesn't make sense. A strong low low passing just to our north, and temps never rise above 25 for many?

The high stays in a pretty decent position for most of the storm and is right over the heart of NE snow pack, I assume the feed of cold air stays locked in and transporting NE winds over temps in the single digits and teens. 

icon_T2m_neus_50.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, olafminesaw said:

ICON straight up doesn't make sense. A strong low low passing just to our north, and temps never rise above 25 for many?

With the ICON setup, most likely the primary low would track into E TN and die off, with a secondary low forming off Myrtle Beach / Wilmington. The models don’t handle those specifics with sfc low evolution along the wedge boundary very well out in time 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z ukmet matches up with the icon at 5h.  Gfs para is a little faster with the southern wave but still a major winter storm. 12z gfs is more amped than other models with the southern wave and too warm for most, it appears to be on an island with that with the 12z runs. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

The high stays in a pretty decent position for most of the storm and is right over the heart of NE snow pack, I assume the feed of cold air stays locked in and transporting NE winds over temps in the single digits and teens. 

icon_T2m_neus_50.png

But how does a low go north with those dynamics?

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12z ukmet matches up with the icon at 5h.  Gfs para is a little faster with the southern wave but still a major winter storm. 12z gfs is more amped than other models with the southern wave and too warm for most, it appears to be on an island with that with the 12z runs. 
Who would have ever thought we would need a weaker low to give us wintery precip...

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk

  • Haha 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

But how does a low go north with those dynamics?

Yeah something doesn't seem right about that. I believe if it does run north toward TN it should be like hitting a wall and go under wedge and redevelop on the coast. I would say that this is going to need a few days to be resolved. 

gfs_mslpa_us_25.png

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

I appreciate the specifics of dissecting each and every model run, but my main takeaway at this juncture is this: All the major ingredients are in place for an ice storm in CAD areas... We won’t know details for at least another 4 days 

Yes that’s cliché, but it can’t be said enough.

  • Like 2
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

Yeah something doesn't seem right about that. I believe if it does run north toward TN it should be like hitting a wall and go under wedge and redevelop on the coast. I would say that this is going to need a few days to be resolved. 

gfs_mslpa_us_25.png

Generally that is the right idea, but the more amplified and more negative tilt the southern wave is, the more warming you will see aloft, with added pressure to the southern edge of the wedge boundary to where it can be overwhelmed. Just depends on how it shakes out in the end. The various solutions are being presented on the modeling 

  • Like 1
  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, WXNewton said:

12z Canadian more in line with Para GFS

Canadian is a heck of a storm on Tuesday. It digs a much stronger slp closer to the mouth of the bay and raises heights over the NE. I am guessing these three factors allow more efficient cold air transport into the region? But yea, that’s a serious winter storm 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

So far a pretty encouraging model cycle if you want "something / anything" to fall in our neck of the woods (shout out todd rundgren) 

There's been a lot of posts about the general synoptics of CADs, and I'll try to outline some stuff later today/get into the weeds a little with a longer post later today about how they work and what we need to keep in mind for future cycles.

  • Like 3
  • Thanks 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

6 minutes ago, wake4est said:

And Le Canadien...

zr_acc.us_ma.png

Per that run this is falling into mid-upper 20’s in central N.C. Some sleet may be in play but those are the temps you need to maximize accrual and have these maps come even close to verifying. Takeaway is winter storm options are on the table

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The fly in the ointment with all this is A.  appalachian mountains B. dense cold air.  

Overall, the cold air is very cold, but also very dense and shallow.  It has a hard time making it past the Apps (unless you have a perfectly placed high), and even then, is shallow.  = ice opportunities.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, PackGrad05 said:

The fly in the ointment with all this is A.  appalachian mountains B. dense cold air.  

Overall, the cold air is very cold, but also very dense and shallow.  It has a hard time making it past the Apps (unless you have a perfectly placed high), and even then, is shallow.  = ice opportunities.

Have to agree .  I just don’t see this happening at this point.  Better off to clear this out and take transitional chances.  Pacific ruining it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

The fly in the ointment with all this is A.  appalachian mountains B. dense cold air.  

Overall, the cold air is very cold, but also very dense and shallow.  It has a hard time making it past the Apps (unless you have a perfectly placed high), and even then, is shallow.  = ice opportunities.

We do need some cold at 900 to 925 Pack or else might be facing the flicker, flicker & out

Link to comment
Share on other sites

47 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Who would have ever thought we would need a weaker low to give us wintery precip...

Sent from my LGL322DL using Tapatalk
 

Depends... President's Day 1979 was a 996 MB low with a 1050 high over the Great Lakes; the March 1993 Superstorm was a 990MB bomb with wind gusts over 140 MPH.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The canadian is showing more of what I think will transpire with a low a bit further east that will transfer to the coast a bit quicker.  At this time of year, I don't expect to see a surface low run up the tennesee valley as far as some models are showing.  A much quicker transfer to the coast will happen (miller b style).  

TW

Link to comment
Share on other sites

16 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Per that run this is falling into mid-upper 20’s in central N.C. Some sleet may be in play but those are the temps you need to maximize accrual and have these maps come even close to verifying. Takeaway is winter storm options are on the table

That would be a horrible catastrophe if it verified 

  • Weenie 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Feel like this is a huge euro run coming up. If it trends towards the ukmet/icon then I’ll be feeling pretty confident in a major winter storm. If it spits out a run similar to 00z or the 12zgfs then it’s still anyone’s guess with a slight lean towards rainstorm for Tuesday, imo. 

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

Feel like this is a huge euro run coming up. If it trends towards the ukmet/icon then I’ll be feeling pretty confident in a major winter storm. If it spits out a run similar to 00z or the 12zgfs then it’s still anyone’s guess with a slight lean towards rainstorm for Tuesday, imo. 

Was just thinking, the Icon and UKMet have a very similar look with more (and ideal) spacing between the southern wave and the SE Canada TPV to produce a winter storm 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...