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yoda

January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread

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That’s a pretty good shift especially for the southern part of the forum.  I’m certainly not writing off this weekend’s threat.

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54 minutes ago, Rvarookie said:

Let’s just cut the bs. When tf is it going to snow?

Agreed! And ffs how much for DC and Philly, respectively? 

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Just saw 18z EPS Indies.  Actually some solid hits for DC/MD.  A number of coastal scrapers.  Hmmm...

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22 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 18Z EPS.  Mean did bump slightly North.  Positive spin is to say it it trending toward the UKMET....

8457EAAB-2E75-4FAF-BC74-F97176B6EC86.png

5B90CD78-CF7F-460C-8ACD-FAA057FFF322.png

If only this was the mid-December storm. 

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4 minutes ago, Wonderdog said:

You call this a storm?

Figuratively.  We call everything a storm.  Few live up to the name.  This won’t. 

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25 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Just saw 18z EPS Indies.  Actually some solid hits for DC/MD.  A number of coastal scrapers.  Hmmm...

I think as others have said in this thread that if that h5 piece is further north or doesn't exist then this will come further north... though if there is enough cold air for it is another question.  Haven't done a deep dive into 2mT or 850 temps on the 12z UKMET 

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10 minutes ago, yoda said:

I think as others have said in this thread that if that h5 piece is further north or doesn't exist then this will come further north... though if there is enough cold air for it is another question.  Haven't done a deep dive into 2mT or 850 temps on the 12z UKMET 

Every time we need a sw in the ns to go south or stay south, they go north without fail. Watch this one go to Jacksonville, straight from Quebec lol

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1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Hmm how about help from a southeast ridge to bump the storm up the coast? The southeast ridge is just going to disappear from flexing its muscles. Thoughts?

No way to get a SER with a ridge in the west, a double humped one at that

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13 minutes ago, yoda said:

I think as others have said in this thread that if that h5 piece is further north or doesn't exist then this will come further north... though if there is enough cold air for it is another question.  Haven't done a deep dive into 2mT or 850 temps on the 12z UKMET 

I think it all depends on that piece 

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This is a tricky little setup. This little piece that’s killing us doesn’t even exist on land yet and then it gets kicked south by the pinwheel over Labrador that won’t form until Wednesday and it forms from the energy that created yesterday’s rain. Really interesting but I would think really hard to nail down from this far out. It wouldn’t take much for the scenario I just described to not happen at all.

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2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

This is a tricky little setup. This little piece that’s killing us doesn’t even exist on land yet and then it gets kicked south by the pinwheel over Labrador that won’t form until Wednesday and it forms from the energy that created yesterday’s rain. Really interesting but I would think really hard to nail down from this far out. It wouldn’t take much for the scenario I just described to not happen at all.

Agree . Way too early to even think about bailing . DC area only needs subtle changes for a nice hit. Even up here at the Pa line I'm still in the game sooo...

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1 hour ago, nj2va said:

That’s a pretty good shift especially for the southern part of the forum.  I’m certainly not writing off this weekend’s threat.

Yeah, I won’t write it off, just not that enthusiastic either. We will see where this is by Wednesday.

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6 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

Yeah, I won’t write it off, just not that enthusiastic either. We will see where this is by Wednesday.

Well its almost time to start extrapolating the NAM, so buckle up!

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4 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Well its almost time to start extrapolating the NAM, so buckle up!

Our friend is there NW of ME.  Extrapolate away!

B7E0D6E5-8330-4912-898D-EB1A7874266C.jpeg

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6 minutes ago, nj2va said:

Well its almost time to start extrapolating the NAM, so buckle up!

If only we had the DGEX still

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Well the SE forum approved of the 00z 84 hr NAM at h5... so... yay? Lol

They're showing snow maps from the nam that doesn't show any snow...I don't get it 

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1 hour ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps with a bump north . No surprise...following the op.

No way especially if I lived in DC and south would I look past The weekend system. I much rather need a north trend with 100 hours to go then a south trend .....1000 times over .

Just saw the Navgem . Wow...its wayyyyy north lol

Over the past 5 years or so I’ve observed often guidance shifts south with east coast storms in the 3-7 day range before shifting north again slightly the final 72 hours. But the north shift isn’t this huge hundreds of miles one like in the 90s and 2000s.   We want this to get a little closer then it currently is by the 72 hour threshold to have a legit chance. Still time. 
 

Navgem is interesting but it’s way off the consensus on a few things. It’s weaker with the 50/50 and washes that northern SW out completely so there is no pinwheel effect holding the 50/50 in and it escapes in time allowing the storm to climb the coast.  It’s also a lot weaker with the southern cutoff and has higher heights all across the east too which is why it’s a warmer solution. 

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3 minutes ago, yoda said:

Well the SE forum approved of the 00z 84 hr NAM at h5... so... yay? Lol

Congrats GA?? Lets start the 0z suite off with less confluence and the NAM did that at least.  Baby steps from now until Fri... CHO jackpot!

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2 minutes ago, poolz1 said:

Congrats GA?? Lets start the 0z suite off with less confluence and the NAM did that at least.  Baby steps from now until Fri... CHO jackpot!

It happened in 2018

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