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January Medium/Long Range Disco Thread


yoda
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Just now, nj2va said:

Para GFS is north of the regular GFS.  Gets light precip just south of EZF but surface temps are borderline.

we have way more problems than just a north trend...its weak sauce---seems to peter out as it approaches us

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3 minutes ago, Ji said:

we have way more problems than just a north trend...its weak sauce---seems to peter out as it approaches us

The block is centered too far south...creates a shred factory and the system starts to wash out and gets absorbed into the trapped vortex to our northeast. Literally too much of a good thing. Little better antecedent cold and it would be a good setup for NC. You know this...and I know it’s hard to wait...but we typically score AFTER blocking tanks and is relaxing. This is one of the reasons why. 

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1 minute ago, nj2va said:

It was a messy, convoluted partial phase.  But check out 500 and all the vorts.  GFS isn’t going to get this right 150 hours out (or even 15).  I’m not mad at where we stand at this point.

image.thumb.png.9ea8b44477aefd71ce6ffc0c90ed8677.png

Was just coming to post this...Good luck with this set up.

3F519998-E92B-45CA-91C0-0A6F16428944.png

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1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The block is centered too far south...creates a shred factory and the system starts to wash out and gets absorbed into the trapped vortex to our northeast. Literally too much of a good thing. Little better antecedent cold and it would be a good setup for NC. You know this...and I know it’s hard to wait...but we typically score AFTER blocking tanks and is relaxing. This is one of the reasons why. 

well every day we continue to waste striking out in this awful/awesome pattern---is a day closer to spring. We dont have this wide window to keep getting snow. it

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Just now, nj2va said:

It was a messy, convoluted partial phase.  But check out 500 and all the vorts.  GFS isn’t going to get this right 150 hours out (or even 15).  I’m not mad at where we stand at this point.

image.thumb.png.9ea8b44477aefd71ce6ffc0c90ed8677.png

We need the blocking to relax some...even there the “wall” in the flow is a bit too far south. If that backs off just a wee bit that’s a hit. Was a great setup for a moderate snow otherwise.  This is just speculation based on current guidance pattern progression and history but all guidance has a weakening of the blocking around day 10 before strengthening it again toward day 15. That might be our best window around Jan 15 before maybe another after the next NAO flux. 

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2 minutes ago, Ji said:

well every day we continue to waste striking out in this awful/awesome pattern---is a day closer to spring. We dont have this wide window to keep getting snow. it

But we don’t “keep striking out” this is still just the first storm threat in the pattern. It just feels like it because we waited forever and now you keep treating every model run like a “new threat” and feeling like a while new miss when it doesn’t get better when in reality it’s just the same storm you keep torturing yourself over every 6 hours!  The Jan 12 storm is still out of range but trended better fwiw. I think that has a better shot but in sticking with my original call from a week ago that the 15-20 and maybe even after is our most likely window to score. 

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Just now, Ji said:

the problem @psuhoffmanis we are ending the first week of January and we have nothing to track

The problem is expectations were too early. Dude, when did you hear anybody (other than DT's slightly early call) say anything about early January being the period to watch? Now either I missed something...or the thinking has been mid-January on for good potential. The blocking is already on the doorstep...as this run of the GFS shows for the 11th  @psuhoffman the suppression on that run is indicative of that, right?

And Ji, tell me...how many moderate or big storms have we had before the middle of January in our history? Answer: Not many (got two December big hits, and one early January--that being 1996). So even in our best years this is kinda how things happen. It is far too early to panic (although I know you do anyway, lol). So no, not having anything to track by now isn't a "problem" imo.

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well every day we continue to waste striking out in this awful/awesome pattern---is a day closer to spring. We dont have this wide window to keep getting snow. it

I honestly hate to feed the beast by responding to your weenie tirades, but as others have stated, isn’t anything before Jan 15th low probability anyways? As the GFS has demonstrated not wanting to show blue over us (even with sub 540 heights and bountiful precip), before the cold air is established when the PAC becomes more favorable, it seems like our axis of snowfall would be incredibly thin anyways. And besides, our prime climo for snowfall is Jan 15-Feb 15 anywho. Digital snow can be wonderful, but maybe the reason that the models correct and shift snow away from us in the med range in patterns like this is because.. history suggests that the pattern currently in place isn’t ripe for a substantial snowfall in our area, at least yet??


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I honestly hate to feed the beast by responding to your weenie tirades, but as others have stated, isn’t anything before Jan 15th low probability anyways? As the GFS has demonstrated not wanting to show blue over us (even with sub 540 heights and bountiful precip), before the cold air is established when the PAC becomes more favorable, it seems like our axis of snowfall would be incredibly thin anyways. And besides, our prime climo for snowfall is Jan 15-Feb 15 anywho. Digital snow can be wonderful, but maybe the reason that the models correct and shift snow away from us in the med range in patterns like this is because.. history suggests that the pattern currently in place isn’t ripe for a substantial snowfall in our area, at least yet??


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But central North Carolina to Southern Virginia is?
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But central North Carolina to Southern Virginia is?

Based on history, yes. Jan 30 2010 happened right as the blocking was established, no? Of course that gave us a great snowfall because it was a juiced STJ Nino system, but that bullseyed North Carolina and Southern Virginia anyways. Even in March of 2018 we were teased with the 12-13 system that gave SW VA some snow and redeveloped and crushed New England. Even there we had to wait another 10 days to get our storm which would’ve been a MECS/SECS if it had happened a month earlier. My point? Chill out a bit, we’ll get our pattern, and in prime snow climo I wouldn’t have it any other way. Judging by how you claim to like digital snow almost as much as snow on the ground, you still should prefer long range tracking like what is coming up exponentially better than a shutout pattern like last year.


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