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December 16-17, 2020 Winter Storm Obs/Nowcasting


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8 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I thought a few pages back it got the thumbs down. Ok up your way along the MD/PA border west for a bit?

It’s the only guidance that shows me all snow.  But that’s simply because it can’t pick up on mid level warm layers. Never has. Although I guess this is the new GFS lol. But I find it suspect that EVERY other nwp is wrong on that warm layer. 

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s the only guidance that shows me all snow.  But that’s simply because it can’t pick up on mid level warm layers. Never has. Although I guess this is the new GFS lol. But I find it suspect that EVERY other nwp is wrong on that warm layer. 

          It's the "new" GFS, but it has the old physics, so I suspect that its inability to capture mid-level warm layers remains.

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Just now, Zdudswx said:

Yea, sadly there’s just not enough cold air locked in place. Early December bay temps are always against us. If it were mid January we all would cash in. 

Definitely...this was just a bit too early! I'm about to go look at the long range pattern prospects for comfort...lol Current AO forecast is just the Tylenol we need after this headache! :weenie:

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