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December 16/17 Winter Event

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4 minutes ago, 40westwx said:

I am waiting for Marty Bass in morning.. that guy is maybe the best forecaster in Baltimore History!!!

Speaking of snow maps, WUsa’s latest is pretty sad. Where most have 4-8 or 6-12 they have 1-3. Could be right though, too early to say. 

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10 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

18z still keeps N.Carroll all frozen through the duration.  Deform looks more impressive.  Mixing is a certainty even here but with big qpf and impressive dynamics...big totals still possible 

I liked a couple of things on this run for us. We get down to about 23 early Wednesday morning. That's the coldest since those Euro runs a couple days ago. With clouds moving in and snow breaking out late morning I don't buy that we hit 31-32 by 18z. Hopefully we stay in the 20's. 850's reach 0 and even get a touch above it around 00z so like you said mixing is going to be tough to avoid for a while. The question is for how long. In the March 2017 we were expecting big totals and sleet killed us at the height of the storm. Hopefully we can avoid a prolonged period of sleet and more importantly never change to rain. Once the storm reaches it's max longitude and starts to head out to sea we'll go to straight snow. This Euro run gives us over a half inch of liquid between 6z and 12z Thursday morning. That's the most I've seen during that 6 hour period in quite a few runs. I'd like to see that period continue to get wetter because there shouldn't be any mixing issues by 3z. Even the GFS increased qpf. during this period albeit nowhere near the Euro's amount. My best guess for us as of now is 3-6 before mixing and then say 6-10 on the backside. I'll go in the middle of those totals and say we get a foot. I'm not real convinced we do great up front but that's just a hunch but unlike some here I do like our chances on the second half of the storm. Hopefully precip. comes in hot and heavy. I'll continue to watch how the models handle 850's on the back end for potentially better ratios. If we have any shot at some of those huge totals on previous run we'll need ratios on the backend.

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2 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Gross

FB_IMG_1607994484737.jpg

That's crazy. Look at all those lows near or west of the bay at our latitude. It seems like the way east outliers are now skewing the op.

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8 minutes ago, notvirga! said:

 

Speaking of snow maps, WUsa’s latest is pretty sad. Where most have 4-8 or 6-12 they have 1-3. Could be right though, too early to say. 

That sounds much too much like a 6-hour snow map for my liking. Egregiously conservative...a map with no faith. Nice tag name, by the way! :D

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52 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

What does the WAA snow look like and where does the mix line get to?

This is where our area starts to lose the thermals on the WAA side of the storm.  It's a step back on this part.  The red line is the 850 but like you said at this point the layer is isothermal from 850 down so its pretty much the rain snow line there...you can see what qpf came before the transition...you can estimate how the area did...northern zones hold on 1-2 hours longer...south of DC gets very little snow before going to rain.

euro1.thumb.png.f1f0395ed9547a60f2930bc727d7e592.png

1z here is about the worst look for the thermals.  This is the NW extent of both the surface and mid level warmth.  I have estimated the rain and sleet lines here by tracing the 925 and 850  0 lines.  

euro2.thumb.png.5d825a8e7b5be8ae1c7375f43aeed2bf.png

2 hours later by 3z the temps are crashing and I would estimate everyone NW of 95 is going back to snow or has already.  There are some pockets in the zone of subsidence NW of the developing banding of warmth but if they are between heavy bands at the time your not missing out on much accumulation anyways...point is I think we can assume from 3z on anything that falls is snowfall from 95 NW

Euro3.thumb.png.45acc826e2d7bae85bf116930e9d4306.png

SO this last plot is the qpf that falls after that...and this is where the bulk of the snow comes from.  This looks great...I would sign up for it...but I do NOT like living on the deform love as 90% of the storm.  That can disapear real quick if things don't come together right.  But the euro has been remarkably consistent with that in our area so maybe... so there is good and bad here...but again I am nervous relying almost entirely on the back side.  Even up here its only about 3-4" before a flip to sleet...the other 14" if gives me is from the deform.   If that happens GREAT but my rule is usually to treat that as bonus.

euro4.thumb.png.b0e6dfb018e7dfdd6a590421741121d8.png

Anyways... hope that helped.  

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1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

That's crazy. Look at all those lows near or west of the bay at our latitude. It seems like the way east outliers are now skewing the op.

This is really cause for pause. If those solutions verify, even our Carroll county crew and PSU are raining and seeing 25% of our forecasted totals. Gfs is OTOH clustered off the eastern shore IIRC.  

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18z EPS is pretty terrible. There's really no way to put it nicely. Event the Mason-Dixon crew flips and back to I-81. We gotta hope it's wrong.

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9 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Gross. A couple over Balt and a couple headed for Bermuda...

FB_IMG_1607994484737.jpg

The ensembles still have a quite a bit of variance. This track is not set yet for sure. I would still err on the side of a east solution, however there’s is not definitive consensus here. Hope, I guess

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is where our area starts to lose the thermals on the WAA side of the storm.  It's a step back on this part.  The red line is the 850 but like you said at this point the layer is isothermal from 850 down so its pretty much the rain snow line there...you can see what qpf came before the transition...you can estimate how the area did...northern zones hold on 1-2 hours longer...south of DC gets very little snow before going to rain.

euro1.thumb.png.f1f0395ed9547a60f2930bc727d7e592.png

1z here is about the worst look for the thermals.  This is the NW extent of both the surface and mid level warmth.  I have estimated the rain and sleet lines here by tracing the 925 and 850  0 lines.  

euro2.thumb.png.5d825a8e7b5be8ae1c7375f43aeed2bf.png

2 hours later by 3z the temps are crashing and I would estimate everyone NW of 95 is going back to snow or has already.  There are some pockets in the zone of subsidence NW of the developing banding of warmth but if they are between heavy bands at the time your not missing out on much accumulation anyways...point is I think we can assume from 3z on anything that falls is snowfall from 95 NW

Euro3.thumb.png.45acc826e2d7bae85bf116930e9d4306.png

SO this last plot is the qpf that falls after that...and this is where the bulk of the snow comes from.  This looks great...I would sign up for it...but I do NOT like living on the deform love as 90% of the storm.  That can disapear real quick if things don't come together right.  But the euro has been remarkably consistent with that in our area so maybe... so there is good and bad here...but again I am nervous relying almost entirely on the back side.  Even up here its only about 3-4" before a flip to sleet...the other 14" if gives me is from the deform.   If that happens GREAT but my rule is usually to treat that as bonus.

euro4.thumb.png.b0e6dfb018e7dfdd6a590421741121d8.png

Anyways... hope that helped.  

Great explanation. And if your last qpf map is close to accurate and that sounding is snow, then yea, dc can get 2-4”. But to your point it would only pan out this way with a back end solution. That’s a low percentage play usually speaking around here 

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36 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

You have been on these boards a long time like me and are waiting for the same east move rug pull I am. Way too much western region football spiking going on. LOL at the HECS talk.  

I think you are spot on when you said  it doesn’t feel like a done deal yet...seems like we still have time for adjustments that might be good for some or just end it for others.  Maybe 0z goes east as you said...who knows.  

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Just now, BristowWx said:

I think you are spot on when you said  it doesn’t feel like a done deal yet...seems like we still have time for adjustments that might be good for some or just end it for others.  Maybe 0z goes east as you said...who knows.  

It really is a weird evolution that causes the low to go so far west. Even when you look at the upper level maps and the direction of where the shortwave is moving, it’s still not 100% why the low turns doing north into the bay area. It’s certainly not a run-of-the-mill track for this neck of the woods. Something to keep an eye on for tonight‘s runs. Especially with a pretty robust HP in a generally favorable location. 

 

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Hello all...

A note from NCEP Central Ops, as I am just spinning up at work...

There's an issue with one of the supercomputers...which is currently causing a delay in the 00Z model production. Certainly the 00Z HRRR and RAP have been delayed, and the NAM will likely be as well. 

Sorry folks...just passing along what I know..

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2 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Hello all...

A note from NCEP Central Ops, as I am just spinning up at work...

There's an issue with one of the supercomputers...which is currently causing a delay in the 00Z model production. Certainly the 00Z HRRR and RAP have been delayed, and the NAM will likely be as well. 

Sorry folks...just passing along what I know..

Good we can use the break I think

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2 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Hello all...

A note from NCEP Central Ops, as I am just spinning up at work...

There's an issue with one of the supercomputers...which is currently causing a delay in the 00Z model production. Certainly the 00Z HRRR and RAP have been delayed, and the NAM will likely be as well. 

Sorry folks...just passing along what I know..

Thanks for the update. Otherwise we all would speculated the storm must of trended so well that it broke the computer :mapsnow:

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4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

https://imgur.com/PoO5HCc

Meant to post this earlier but got distracted. Hope you like the end of the storm. 

Thought it was a joke post like a giant turd or something.  That did look like a happy ending 

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13 minutes ago, PivotPoint said:

Thanks for the update. Otherwise we all would speculated the storm must of trended so well that it broke the computer :mapsnow:

Yes....this will stop us from speculation....

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46 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is where our area starts to lose the thermals on the WAA side of the storm.  It's a step back on this part.  The red line is the 850 but like you said at this point the layer is isothermal from 850 down so its pretty much the rain snow line there...you can see what qpf came before the transition...you can estimate how the area did...northern zones hold on 1-2 hours longer...south of DC gets very little snow before going to rain.

euro1.thumb.png.f1f0395ed9547a60f2930bc727d7e592.png

1z here is about the worst look for the thermals.  This is the NW extent of both the surface and mid level warmth.  I have estimated the rain and sleet lines here by tracing the 925 and 850  0 lines.  

euro2.thumb.png.5d825a8e7b5be8ae1c7375f43aeed2bf.png

2 hours later by 3z the temps are crashing and I would estimate everyone NW of 95 is going back to snow or has already.  There are some pockets in the zone of subsidence NW of the developing banding of warmth but if they are between heavy bands at the time your not missing out on much accumulation anyways...point is I think we can assume from 3z on anything that falls is snowfall from 95 NW

Euro3.thumb.png.45acc826e2d7bae85bf116930e9d4306.png

SO this last plot is the qpf that falls after that...and this is where the bulk of the snow comes from.  This looks great...I would sign up for it...but I do NOT like living on the deform love as 90% of the storm.  That can disapear real quick if things don't come together right.  But the euro has been remarkably consistent with that in our area so maybe... so there is good and bad here...but again I am nervous relying almost entirely on the back side.  Even up here its only about 3-4" before a flip to sleet...the other 14" if gives me is from the deform.   If that happens GREAT but my rule is usually to treat that as bonus.

euro4.thumb.png.b0e6dfb018e7dfdd6a590421741121d8.png

Anyways... hope that helped.  

This is a very good analysis. 

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53 minutes ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Gross. A couple over Balt and a couple headed for Bermuda...

FB_IMG_1607994484737.jpg

The furtheast east will verify.

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I don’t post much bc I’m not that smart, but nearly 50 years of DC living and I’ve seen this movie before. Supposed to be 29 tonight. Probably won’t drop below 35 at DCA. Then tomorrow will hit 45 easily. Then start to drop, then clouds build in hold temp above freezing and even if dews are low we get 30 minutes in the AM of snow that melts on contact and then it switches over and game set match. 
 
we have barely touched freezing this season, the track sucks, the airmass sucks, the water temps suck. 

This storm feels like walking  up a down escalator. With PHL and NYC butts staring down at us from the top.

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26 minutes ago, WxMan1 said:

Hello all...

A note from NCEP Central Ops, as I am just spinning up at work...

There's an issue with one of the supercomputers...which is currently causing a delay in the 00Z model production. Certainly the 00Z HRRR and RAP have been delayed, and the NAM will likely be as well. 

Sorry folks...just passing along what I know..

 

"Mom and Dad:  the computer ate my homework."

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3 minutes ago, ovechkin said:

I don’t post much bc I’m not that smart, but nearly 50 years of DC living and I’ve seen this movie before. Supposed to be 29 tonight. Probably won’t drop below 35 at DCA. Then tomorrow will hit 45 easily. Then start to drop, then clouds build in hold temp above freezing and even if dews are low we get 30 minutes in the AM of snow that melts on contact and then it switches over and game set match. 
 
we have barely touched freezing this season, the track sucks, the airmass sucks, the water temps suck. 

This storm feels like walking  up a down escalator. With PHL and NYC butts staring down at us from the top.

You should post more.  :lol:

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