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December 16/17 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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3 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Man, if we could just get rid of this double-barreled look on the 3k... 996 at the benchmark man.

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For the smart people here, I'm curious, how often do these double barrel type setups happen with nor'easters? Do they verify the way that the models forecast them?

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15 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

10pm heading back SE 925/850/surface....please someone explain why it does not snow when all thes levels are below freezing west of 95?  What don’t I understand?

55EDE724-5A61-4D6C-98C1-226C6DE9AC5C.png

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There is a warm layer coming in off the Atlantic down your way in DC Baltimore area that warm air layer gets scoured away but barely up here in southern pa by PHL due to the storm hitting the breaks and moving off the coast east bound. 

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4 minutes ago, Cobalt said:

For the smart people here, I'm curious, how often do these double barrel type setups happen with nor'easters? Do they verify the way that the models forecast them?

 

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Hang on...is this whole double-barreled thing what's screwing up the track for us?

It looks like the two low situation is due to a meso-low from the NC thunderstorm complex on the 3km NAM.  Not sure that it plays a huge role in the thermal profile up by us.

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2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

The maps are out of control.  Harrisonburg with 24” in 6 hours?  Come on.

Haha I know they're way out to lunch. Decent evolution however and a definite improvement up top and with sfc reflection vs the 18z. We also do have to like it continues to juice up more and more each run. 

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1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

The 3km NAM has a QPF problem with upslope over low-to-moderate terrain.  Hence the 4”+ at Camp David.  Those values can be ignored.

We do like the 2.5"+ swath across the M/D area and S PA though. Might as well have the NAM unload the best QPF outcomes for us to at least give a chance when the 850's crash back S. 

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1 minute ago, DDweatherman said:

We do like the 2.5"+ swath across the M/D area and S PA though. Might as well have the NAM unload the best QPF outcomes for us to at least give a chance when the 850's crash back S. 

Yeah, the low tucking in and stalling before scooting east really plays well for NW areas.  

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