Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

December 16/17 Winter Event


MN Transplant
 Share

Recommended Posts

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Every model, even the GFS, has this baggy area of low pressure stretching from onshore to well offshore as it approaches and pass our latitude.  Where the "L" gets put on the surface map isn't always a fine science.  All comes down to how convection plays in (we really won't know this until tomorrow or Wednesday) and where the surface low starts to get stacked with the upper level energy. That later detail just keeps wobbling just onshore and just offshore.  

100%. And we may not know until 00z tomorrow - or perhaps until the storm arrives. There is almost zero agreement among models at h5 and the upper levels and were within 48 hours. There’s a lot of noise for these models to read through, including the energy coming through the area right now dumping cold rain on us.
 

GFS showed nearly a foot of snow in Baltimore at 6z, nearly 10” at DCA while other models only show 2-5”. Going to be insanely close for I-95.  I don’t think models have much of a grasp on what’s going on here. Somewhere between the GFS/euro seems most likely IMO. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, this one is getting away from us.  Time to start measuring expectations here or make plans to chance west.   Still like my earlier call of 2 to 4" for beltwayers.    You can keep your dress stored away.

It was a lovely floral sundress too.  

We just can't do marginal events well.  Too much warm air flooding in and its no bueno when roasting at 36F even if its cold upstairs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

I keep hoping we see the Euro back off these NW pushes and get closer to the GFS solution. It will really make a huge difference for us. I've seen my totals around 16 inches on some runs with bigger totals not all that far NW of me but then closer to 8 on others with much smaller totals not that far to my SE.

Not sure if posted,  but the ECM Ensemble is ouch for many in the Southern areas. Not putting gas in the snow blower.  Again know your climo and typical progressions to avoid disappointment. This is a psu, Mappy storm, unless it is  wrong.  

 

 

eps 1.png

Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, blizzardmeiser said:

What about the 355 days of the year it doesn’t snow? 

I was just about to say this. I lived in Middletown PA from 2013-2015 right outside York & Harrisburg. They were pretty good winters for that area and there were definitely storms where that area saw 3-6” as Maryland saw little to anything.... but it’s not worth the move IMO. It’s a really boring and dull area to live. Sure, it snows more in York.... but not enough to move my life back there. It was miserably boring compared to Maryland. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, H2O said:

It was a lovely floral sundress too.  

We just can't do marginal events well.  Too much warm air flooding in and its no bueno when roasting at 36F even if its cold upstairs.

I wouldn't count us out just yet.  We're right on that line.  If we can flip back and get under the CCB, even if not for very long, we might be very pleasantly surprised.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

14 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, this one is getting away from us.  Time to start measuring expectations here or make plans to chance west.   Still like my earlier call of 2 to 4" for beltwayers.    You can keep your dress stored away.

Not sure if you saw, but those were 6 HR maps, not storm total. Your 2" - 4" is still looking good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This storm has had S/C PA NMD NNJ SENY and southern New England jackpot written all over it since day 1. Classic Miller A setup in the early days of winter. Someone in the corridor between Harrisburg and Philly is going to see 30” out of this. Bet on that.  

If it were January with that 1040 HP up north.... we’d all be in the game. Think some are trying to overplay the hand we’ve been dealt here. Know your climo! Especially on December 16th. 
 

that being said... this isn’t over. At all. There is absolutely zero reason to believe this storm is a done deal entirely. Yes. Baltimore isn’t getting a foot. But 6” is still very much possible. Doesn’t take much of a shift to get I-95 in on warning level snows. 

  • Haha 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said:

I wouldn't count us out just yet.  We're right on that line.  If we can flip back and get under the CCB, even if not for very long, we might be very pleasantly surprised.

Honestly, it’s a weird situation where the hills of NW DC could see twice as much or more as NE/SE DC, PG County. In 30 years, it’s actually a somewhat common scenario.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Are ensembles still useful this close in?

Try and be ok with an awesome 6-10" storm, don't fall for the Ji 12" + or bust mindset. Those euro ensembles seem pretty reasonable for our area with around 7-9". Great storm if it happens

  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, chris21 said:

Honestly, it’s a weird situation where the hills of NW DC could see twice as much or more as NE/SE DC, PG County. In 30 years, it’s actually a somewhat common scenario.

Yeah, it's definitely going to be interesting to see how it plays out.  Either way, I'm happy to be in the game and not going to be surprised/disappointed if we don't put up big (6 inches or more) numbers. Would be very happy with an inch or two, rain/sleet. and a flip back to snow for some more minor accumulations. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, wxtrix said:

lol

 ? Not sure what’s funny. Every storm that doesn’t turn into a MECS or HECS is thrashed by half of the forum. 6” in Baltimore city on 12/16 would be a great start to the winter. Expectations are always far too high. People shouldn’t have a “foot of snow or bust” mentality. It’s frankly exhausting and annoying. Even in the snowier sections of the forum. We live in Maryland. Not New York or Maine. 
 

we will likely more than double the entire snowfall total of last year before winter even begins. Take the W. 

  • Like 2
  • Weenie 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, osfan24 said:

Not based on that above snowfall map. Woof.

At this range the Op runs are much prioritized and you really never should use ensembles snowmaps for prime forecasting methods.  I know we all look at them but it's not what ensembles are for.  Op Euro, GGEM, and GFS all give us a really nice storm.  It's going to wobble back and forth a little and then come down to mesoscale/microscale features in the end like it always does on final snow amounts.  But the goalposts have narrowed and stayed in place pretty much for the last 48-72 hours.  There's no primary to Cleveland or Miller B screw job on the way.  It's not suppressed or OTS.  It's a coast-running Miller A in mid-December.  Thermal gradient is more onshore than it would be in January-March due to the water temp and respectable, but unremarkable, cold airmass ahead of the storm.  Give me that basic information alone and I think I could give you a snow forecast that would be pretty reasonable for most of the area... 

  • Like 6
  • Thanks 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, wxtrix said:

it’s as if part of this subforum is completely invisible to you.

It’s not my job to coddle the feelings of people who live in warmer parts of the sub forum out of snowpression. I’m being realistic here. 90+% of the forum will see advisory to warning level snowfall before winter even begins. That’s a good start, no matter the outcome in your own backyard. This storm was never going to be a jackpot for our area compared to NY NJ PA.
 

If one gets 3-6” in Baltimore city out of this, that’s a win - no matter the “maximum potential outcome if everything aligned correctly”. We barely saw 3” total all of last winter. Perspective man. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, jayyy said:

It’s not my job to coddle the feelings of people who live in warmer parts of the sub forum out of snowpression. I’m being realistic here. 90+% of the forum will see advisory to warning level snowfall before winter even begins. That’s a good start, no matter the outcome in your own backyard. This storm was never going to be a jackpot for our area compared to NY NJ PA.
 

If one gets 3-6” in Baltimore city out of this, that’s a win - no matter the “maximum potential outcome if everything aligned correctly”. We barely saw 3” total all of last winter. Perspective man. 

she doesn't live in a warm part of the subforum, she's out west in WVA. Which was her point. Many forget that we have members who live in WVA

  • Like 3
  • Confused 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Interested to see what the GFS/ICON/EPS/RGEM do at 12z. More concerned with the trend than the verbatim solution. 

I'm not convinced there's any trend at all. It's wobbling back and forth for the reasons I and others have laid out.  6z Euro wobbled left, 6z RGEM wobbled right.  And these moves are so small in reality, even if it did "trend" left for 4 runs, a bump right on tomorrow's 12z runs could easily happen that would put it right back where it started. This (and other reasons) is why snowfall forecasts always have ranges.  

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, jayyy said:

 ? Not sure what’s funny. Every storm that doesn’t turn into a MECS or HECS is thrashed by half of the forum. 6” in Baltimore city on 12/16 would be a great start to the winter. Expectations are always far too high. People shouldn’t have a “foot of snow or bust” mentality. It’s frankly exhausting and annoying. Even in the snowier sections of the forum. We live in Maryland. Not New York or Maine. 
 

we will likely more than double the entire snowfall total of last year before winter even begins. Take the W. 

Double?  We could exceed last year by 400%!  Everyone needs to take a breath 

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • WxUSAF unpinned and locked this topic
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...