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December 16/17 Winter Event


MN Transplant
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1 minute ago, wxtrix said:

 

it's not a great model. neither is the Canadian. the NWS isn't relying on either of them to make its forecasts.

Yeah, we don't even look at the UKMET for any reason down here. Our order of prevalence is:

1. Euro/GFS

2. RAP/HRRR for meso

3. Nam Nest

4. Canadian

5. Hieroglyphics

6. Crystal Ball

7. Icon

8. That's So Raven telekinesis

9. A straight up guess out of a hat

10. Nam 12km   

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Just now, ravensrule said:

Thanks Matt. I honestly hope you always get nailed. You always put so much into tracking and unfortunately you don’t get much back. 

Good luck to you...I'm barely around anymore...just like to pop in for events...Others are doing the heavy lifting when it comes to quality posts and analysis.

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2 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

You mix for a time, then you be whacked really good by a band that develops along the 85H frontogenic placement. 850mb temps crash from ~+1C to -5C in 3 hrs and it rips for like 6 hrs before shutting off. 

Low seems to get up to just SE of cape may and then shoots literally due east from there between 78-87 hours

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Guys, I'll have a more in-depth post about the 00z runs tonight and I'll lay out what I saw with regards to everything. There were many in the sub that got smoked by the Euro and some will be hanging on for dear life (I-95 brethren). The fall line will be a major play with this one. The further away, the better. It's a classic setup for these parts. You know your climo. Temper expectations.  

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