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Active mid December with multiple event potential


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Serious arctic sand look north of the Pike, and especially north of Route 2. Lots of dry air and the lift is above the DGZ. This is going to stink for those that don't get into that fronto band. If I had to take a first stab at the forecast for here I'd probably go 2-5''. Like the look ORH and south though. I could see 8-14'' for a lot of CT of RI. As a rule I hate these weak, stretched out banana lows. Always seem like they have a big negative bust potential.

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9 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

One point about that Harvey map... on tv he did show two possible outcomes (a GFS looking one and a ...Euro?ish one). He said he was not sure yet so he was leaving those wide amounts up for now but he would modify as it gets closer.  
 

Whether it's the on-air mets locally or those on TWC, they always compare outcomes using the GFS and the Euro.  What is the point of having these other models then?  Especially since they never mention the Ukie, yet it has a higher reliability than the GFS.

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1 minute ago, 78Blizzard said:

Whether it's the on-air mets locally or those on TWC, they always compare outcomes using the GFS and the Euro.  What is the point of having these other models then?  Especially since they never mention the Ukie, yet it has a higher reliability than the GFS.

Yea and it’s rarely this or that. Usually some sort of a blend anyway.

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2 minutes ago, DomNH said:

Serious arctic sand look north of the Pike, and especially north of Route 2. Lots of dry air and the lift is above the DGZ. This is going to stink for those that don't get into that fronto band. If I had to take a first stab at the forecast for here I'd probably go 2-5''. Like the look ORH and south though. I could see 8-14'' for a lot of CT of RI.

North of the deform it'll be crap ratios...especially with dry air advecting into the low levels. Some of the models have some mid/upper level lift coming through on the tail end as the upper level system swings through so maybe we can do 1--3" of fluff in a best case scenario. I wouldn't totally rule out the deformation axis being near you either although odds favor it being more south.

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It really does seem like there's genuine animosity towards SNE folks on certain forums. Some want the snow to stop north of New Haven, just for kicks. Would be lovely to see the storm trend north at the last minute and pull the rug out from under a few of them. Hehe

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2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Looks more tucked in and then shunted east. Almost gfs like with a weenie low chasing convection. 

Look at how much bigger the convective blob out there than 12z. Much stronger. 

Seems like it disrupted the WCB maybe at the last second. I was happy with that trend otherwise. H5 deeper and better kink in isoheights as it passes over us. 

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1 minute ago, Henry's Weather said:

It really does seem like there's genuine animosity towards SNE folks on certain forums. Some want the snow to stop north of New Haven, just for kicks. Would be lovely to see the storm trend north at the last minute and pull the rug out from under a few of them. Hehe

Well they think a good SNE snowstorm is the same as a great lakes cutter. To them it is.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Look at how much bigger the convective blob out there than 12z. Much stronger. 

Seems like it disrupted the WCB maybe at the last second. I was happy with that trend otherwise. H5 deeper and better kink in isoheights as it passes over us. 

I guess that's what bothers me. Is that real? If it is, that will leave it as a banded mess. If not, it will be a much stronger conveyor belt of moisture. 

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