Wintry events possible I84 corridor down to near I80 next week (14th-18th)

[Allsnow]

Day 7 euro trying to do it again!!!!! Let’s go

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Day 7 euro trying to do it again!!!!! Let’s go

 

[North and West]

36 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

12z Euro for Monday

 

LOCK IT IN! (Or, is it safe yet to say STOP THE COUNT! in levity?) This is good for MMU.

[Snowlover11]

figures ill be in AC.  monday.

[North and West]

figures ill be in AC.  monday.

.

[MJO812]

Jeez wave 1 is north

[snowman19]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Better +PNA ridge in California this run so the snowier outcome near the coast.

New run

Old run

 

 

That +PNA is the key. It’s the one feature to keep an eye on and why the Euro just did what it did. Should it fall apart, forget it

[TriPol]

Snow begets snow.

[jm1220]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

That +PNA is the key. It’s the one feature to keep an eye on and why the Euro just did what it did. Should it fall apart, forget it

Yes it nudges the trough east. Without it, strong chance it tries to cut.

[MJO812]

Sne thread

[Nibor]

4 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Yes it nudges the trough east. Without it, strong chance it tries to cut.

How much can it realistically cut with that blocking?

[SnowGoose69]

36 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

Also, wonder if a stronger wave 1 can suppress wave 2 somewhat. 

If you look at Op runs of various models the last 2-3 cycles there is no question the ones which are NW Monday have better setups for the coast Wednesday

[Eduardo]

47 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Better +PNA ridge in California this run so the snowier outcome near the coast.

Reminds me a bit of December 2009.

[MJO812]

38 minutes ago, Snowlover11 said:

figures ill be in AC.  monday.

Ac sucks

[MJO812]

2 minutes ago, NJsnow89 said:

Eps took a step back it seems. 

No it didnt

[SnowGoose69]

4 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

Reminds me a bit of December 2009.

The weak or "fake phase" with more of a self amplification has some similarities to 12/09 and 2/83.  I mentioned earlier that it showed similarities to 12/19/09  2/4/95 and 2/13/14.

[TriPol]

Just now, NJsnow89 said:

Eps took a step back it seems. 

I don't remember any weather model showing a perfect hit for our area a week out 100% of every model run. There will be shifts north, east, south, and west. We'll seem too warm, too wet, too cold. This is part of the fun.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, MJO812 said:

No it didnt

I didnt see it yet but the EPS will be confusing if people don't break out the Monday event.  I wouldn't look at total QPF or snow amounts for a period.  You have to look at each storm individually or on the surface/H5 panels or you'll be seeing totals for both events if you do 5-7 day total QPF

[wdrag]

Topic's have been split for next week.  All the best on this.  

[SnoSki14]

45 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

If you look at Op runs of various models the last 2-3 cycles there is no question the ones which are NW Monday have better setups for the coast Wednesday

Makes sense. 

Best case scenario would be us getting hit with both though it'll be tough with the lack of cold in wave 1.

[uncle W]

weather will do what it does regardless of what I want or what the models say now...they could be right...time will tell...I'd rather have it snow in two weeks but I'll take what I get...I got no choice...

[uncle W]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Ukie = Uncle

SNE slang

I thought you would go along with the gag...

[Allsnow]

This isn’t last winter 

[NEG NAO]

[NEG NAO]

[Stormlover74]

3 minutes ago, NEG NAO said:

There's a new thread for this storm

[rclab]

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

it relaxed the confluence a little. a few more runs and we should be golden for a nice soaking rain

I have can’t imagine a better fit for staff Meteorologist in WwW007’s panic room. As always ....