losetoa6 Posted December 29, 2020 59 minutes ago, CAPE said: Upper 30s is getting into cold rain territory, and that's always better than mild rain. Nothing beats tracking coastals year around but especially in winter . We've had a bunch this fall and winter . Bodes well I'd think for JFMA .I've seen many snows at 35-38 degrees too Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Vice-Regent Posted December 29, 2020 Colder rain Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
CAPE Posted December 29, 2020 5 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Nothing beats tracking coastals year around but especially in winter . We've had a bunch this fall and winter . Bodes well I'd think for JFMA .I've seen many snows at 35-38 degrees too Good practice for when the blocking gets real. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted December 30, 2020 Hmmm 1 hour ago, thunderman said: 00z EC start New Years Day event off as zr across most of northern VA. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
yoda Posted December 30, 2020 double hmmm... from LWX morning disco .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... The cold front will pass through the area Thursday, likely bringing some showers with it, especially across the Allegheny/Potomac Highlands, northern VA, the Balt/Wash Metro areas, and central MD. This is where there may be some anafrontal characteristics (precip on the cold side) due to the right entrance of an upper-level jet and a shortwave passing through). While temps should still be warm enough for the ptype to be rain for most areas, the rain will likely end as a period of snow near the Allegheny Front in Garret, extreme western Allegany, and western Grant counties. Snow amounts (if any) should be light for most areas, but localized amounts around an inch or two are possible during the morning commute in Garrett County where the colder air will work its way in a little sooner. The change over to snow is most likely going to be during the early morning hours Friday for these areas (5-7 am). The cold front will drop to the south Thursday night. There may be a lull in precipitation as colder and drier air work its way in from the north in associated with high pressure building to our north. However, a closed low in the southern stream both at the surface and upper-levels will begin moving northeast. Some light rain across central VA perhaps into southern MD will spread northeast and become steadier late Thursday night through Friday morning. Rain will continue through Friday afternoon as the low moves into the Midwest, allowing for warm and moist air from the Gulf and Atlantic to overrun colder air in place. With the colder air in place, this causes a concern for freezing rain, especially across our northern and western areas. Latest guidance continues to suggest that there will be enough low- level cold air for temps to be near or below freezing late Thursday night through midday Friday across northern/central MD, northern VA, eastern WV, the Blue Ridge Mountains, and the Allegheny/Potomac Highlands. A prolonged period of ice is possible across these areas for a couple reasons. First, the high building to our north during this time will advect some drier air into the area, causing evaporative cooling when the precip does move in. Second, there may even be some radiational cooling across our northern areas with possible breaks in the clouds overnight Thursday. A Winter Storm Watch (for a possible Ice Storm) may need to be considered later today or tonight for locations near the Allegheny Front in western MD and eastern WV. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
leesburg 04 Posted December 30, 2020 3 hours ago, yoda said: Hmmm My poor hand railings 4 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
WxUSAF Posted December 30, 2020 Anyone in NE MD get any snow this morning? Radar looked briefly impressive. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nj2va Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, leesburg 04 said: My poor hand railings Stay vigilant. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nw baltimore wx Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, WxUSAF said: Anyone in NE MD get any snow this morning? Radar looked briefly impressive. I was awake when that blob went through the Belair area and couldn’t find any snow on the I95 cameras. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nj2va Posted December 30, 2020 @losetoa6 Perhaps a preview for Friday? Low level cold taking longer to scour out here. Currently 31 and guidance had me in the mid to upper 30s by now. I am sure we’ll get into the upper 40s tonight before the front drops through the area overnight but models tend to want to rush the 2m warming in these setups. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thunderman Posted December 30, 2020 12z GFS trended a touch colder at the surface. A lot of the higher res guidance is dropping dew points ahead of precip into the upper 20s and lower 30s along the 81 corridor. Looks like western areas from west of Hagerstown to Cumberland may be in for a descent ice event. Fairly good agreement on 0.25" - 0.5" falling as zr there for New Years Day. Looks like winter storm watches will be needed there later today. May get an advisory level event across central MD, into northern VA, and then west of the Blue Ridge to around Harrisonburg. 3 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted December 30, 2020 Nobody posted the Para for Sunday. 2 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted December 30, 2020 54 minutes ago, nj2va said: @losetoa6 Perhaps a preview for Friday? Low level cold taking longer to scour out here. Currently 31 and guidance had me in the mid to upper 30s by now. I am sure we’ll get into the upper 40s tonight before the front drops through the area overnight but models tend to want to rush the 2m warming in these setups. Yea. The trend is definitely cold hanging in longer Friday but I've noticed precip onset is really been slowing especially in central Md . It was 12z yesterday. Now its ticking close to 18z . Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nj2va Posted December 30, 2020 12z Euro only 7 degrees off (high) its 1p depiction of temps here - also leaves enough precip after the front pushes through for 2” of snow tomorrow morning. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nj2va Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Yea. The trend is definitely cold hanging in longer Friday but I've noticed precip onset is really been slowing especially in central Md . It was 12z yesterday. Now its ticking close to 18z . A bit slower on 12z vs 6z for onset...now after 19z east of HGR on the Euro. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thunderman Posted December 30, 2020 EC 925mb trends 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thunderman Posted December 30, 2020 LWX has watches up for the extreme western zones. Quote URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Baltimore MD/Washington DC 143 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020 MDZ001-501-WVZ503-311000- /O.NEW.KLWX.WS.A.0004.210101T1200Z-210102T0600Z/ Garrett-Extreme Western Allegany-Western Mineral- 143 PM EST Wed Dec 30 2020 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT... * WHAT...Significant icing possible. Total ice accumulations of up to one quarter of an inch possible. * WHERE...In Maryland, Garrett and Extreme Western Allegany Counties. In West Virginia, Western Mineral County. * WHEN...From Friday morning through late Friday night. * IMPACTS...Power outages and tree damage are likely due to the ice. Travel could be nearly impossible. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Monitor the latest forecasts for updates on this situation. && $$ 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted December 30, 2020 3k HH has possible snow showers tomorrow afternoon . Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted December 30, 2020 Sounding just east of Westminster at 21z tomorrow Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
winter_warlock Posted December 30, 2020 4 hours ago, thunderman said: 12z GFS trended a touch colder at the surface. A lot of the higher res guidance is dropping dew points ahead of precip into the upper 20s and lower 30s along the 81 corridor. Looks like western areas from west of Hagerstown to Cumberland may be in for a descent ice event. Fairly good agreement on 0.25" - 0.5" falling as zr there for New Years Day. Looks like winter storm watches will be needed there later today. May get an advisory level event across central MD, into northern VA, and then west of the Blue Ridge to around Harrisonburg. Hope the cold trend continues!! Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted December 30, 2020 3k coming in colder for early Friday no surprise. Just one problem....no precip Keeps getting delayed ...maybe some freezing drizzle early morning my guess . @CAPEs high of 50 is in real trouble though. 30s till at least midnight Saturday. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thunderman Posted December 30, 2020 2 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: 3k coming in colder for early Friday no surprise. Just one problem....no precip Keeps getting delayed ...maybe some freezing drizzle early morning my guess . @CAPEs high of 50 is in real trouble though. 30s till at least midnight Saturday. CHO even gets in on the ice. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted December 30, 2020 Going to be hard to scour out LL cold Friday with only a 1012 mb low to our west. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
thunderman Posted December 30, 2020 One thing I will point out. Lower QPF isn't necessarily bad with borderline surface temps. With borderline temps, light QPF will usually slick things up more than heavier QPF. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Eskimo Joe Posted December 30, 2020 24 minutes ago, thunderman said: One thing I will point out. Lower QPF isn't necessarily bad with borderline surface temps. With borderline temps, light QPF will usually slick things up more than heavier QPF. Yup. Less latent heat release and more time to accrete in cold surfaces. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
nj2va Posted December 30, 2020 Guidance gets far western areas into the low 20s early Friday. Shaping up to be a legit event as it doesn’t look to get above freezing until late Friday night. Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted December 30, 2020 1 hour ago, nj2va said: Guidance gets far western areas into the low 20s early Friday. Shaping up to be a legit event as it doesn’t look to get above freezing until late Friday night. Mid 20s here. Hagerstown west definitely looking like legit atm .60 hours ago it was supposed to be a 3 day mini torch . Now we are down to just 1 day lol ( Saturday) and Nam has been hinting that might be in jeopardy . Long range 2m temps are a huge take with a grain of salt. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
losetoa6 Posted December 31, 2020 Nice line of snow showers on the Nam tomorrow afternoon. N.Md , Hagerstown, Winchester. 1 Quote Share this post Link to post Share on other sites