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December Medium/Long Range Discussion

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I mean...it tracks inland ( over Salisbury)and still manages snow in parts of NE Md.  Get it off sure verbatim n+w would surely got something meaningful :snowing:i95 east no doubt a tough longshot. 

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Just now, Ji said:

well it looks like we are going to be 0-2 

I thought we were kicking the 12/5 can down the street anyway... we're out on that one. Like Charlie Brown to the football, let's look at the 14th!

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6 minutes ago, Quasievil said:

I thought we were kicking the 12/5 can down the street anyway... we're out on that one. Like Charlie Brown to the football, let's look at the 14th!

the models have had this 12/5 storm everywhere. From the Midwest to off the SC Coast...to nothing at all....to up the I95 corridor

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1 minute ago, Ji said:

the models have had this 12/5 storm everywhere. From the Midwest to off the SC Coast...to nothing at all....to up the I95 corridor

Cover all bases and get plus score come verification time 

Model 101 

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11 minutes ago, Ji said:

the 50/50 high pretty much killed our chance?

ecmwf_z500a_namer_5.png

The 50/50 high is forcing the low to the north, resulting in all rain or mostly rain at the coast. Only the interior and highlands get decent snowfall totals. Change that to a 50/50 low and it has nowhere to go but out to sea, which is a colder solution.

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14 minutes ago, JakkelWx said:

The 50/50 high is forcing the low to the north, resulting in all rain or mostly rain at the coast. Only the interior and highlands get decent snowfall totals. Change that to a 50/50 low and it has nowhere to go but out to sea, which is a colder solution.

And then it’s congrats Richmond LOL. Let’s do a middle of the road.

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16 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Eps low clustering for Saturday.  Big change from 0z . Actually some hits of the white stuff for n+w areas in the mix now .

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-mslp_with_low_locs-7169600.png

About 10% of the Members show tv snow for far NW burbs on Saturday.  Not worth posting the probability maps yet.   I am being more picky this year....:)

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15 minutes ago, losetoa6 said:

Hard not to like the recent runs of the Eps moving into mid December . Today's run keeps a nice 50/50 through day 12 . An all around good look .

Haven’t seen it yet, but HM is happy about it on Twitter so I’ll take that. 

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30 minutes ago, frd said:

- EPO / perturb the PV / NEW EPS =  Yeah baby ! 

 
 

 

 

 

 

 

Maybe I can get a response from you but if this comes to fruition. Would this mute the La Nina base state from coming back?. Also mute MJO from going into phases 4-6. Thanks. 

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Pretty remarkable to see this forecast, of course have to see it become reality for weather outcomes, however, the trends grow stronger for a weakening vortex and a eventual improving NAM state. Increasing odds of blocking as well. 

   

 

 

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Just now, LP08 said:

 

BE0BAB92-B421-4662-AD44-A3E818A4D10A.png

Adding the NHEM look.  To me it’s -EPO, neutralish AO and -Nao...let’s hope

E1911BDC-5957-4010-B4A3-6ACDC4B93207.png

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Just now, LP08 said:

Adding the NHEM look.  To me it’s -EPO, neutralish AO and -Nao...let’s hope

E1911BDC-5957-4010-B4A3-6ACDC4B93207.png

 

Cross-polar flow in the long range !  Awesome look !  

Natural gas futures in play.   

 

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28 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Yup. @ORH_wxman says it looks good as well in the NE sub forum. 
 

 

It’s a beautiful progression. Normally I’d say we’re playing with house money so early but this season it’s imperative we produce in that. Like it or not, the niña is still lurking..

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Ha...of course very early, but...if, IF things were to work out with a -NAO and/or -AO and/or blocking for a change (...wouldn't that be enough to put the solar min back in the conversation? Again, obviously a big IF...but IF it were to happen what other explanation would there be? Lol (especially if it were to happen after going this long without, and happen in a nina on top of that?)

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23 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said:

It’s a beautiful progression. Normally I’d say we’re playing with house money so early but this season it’s imperative we produce in that. Like it or not, the niña is still lurking..

Yeah, would be nice to get on the board in a clear way with that sort of look. Plenty of cold air around on those EPS charts so less/none of the issues with this weekends storm. 

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