midatlanticweather Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 24 minutes ago, Ji said: When this is warm rain in December What a waste! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 00z CMC smokes Allegheny Front and W MD next weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 00z EURO = Then... Finally = Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Reading the Mt Holly AFD this morning, this made me chuckle for some reason, but ofc it's the truth. Expect low predictability to continue for another few cycles, as the complex interactions with multiple systems in both the polar and subtropical streams are of reduced scientific understanding. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 13 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Real strong system on the Ukie Saturday night... Only 3 closed h5 lows there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 1, 2020 Author Share Posted December 1, 2020 36 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Pretty nice euro run overnight that offers snow chances. The pattern also looks great after the pna ridge rolls forward and we get more of a -epo/-nao pattern Thought I'd post this in here too since it looks... noice h/t @Allsnow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 19 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: Real strong system on the Ukie Saturday night... you would think that would be a good scenario. Even a non-weather person would say that looks ominous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Not surprisingly, the new CanSIPS has a pretty good look for December, as the other LR guidance has been advertising for at least the first half. Looks like crap for the rest of met winter, as do the latest runs of the CFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 28 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not surprisingly, the new CanSIPS has a pretty good look for December, as the other LR guidance has been advertising for at least the first half. Looks like crap for the rest of met winter, as do the latest runs of the CFS. Wonder the implications further down the road, if and when, the pv weakens ? I would speculate good for cold and snow if we weaken the PV as this would improve the odds of favorable NAM state. Really liked the long range zonal wind forecast from the Euro yesterday. I believe Isotherm has Jan. in mind for a better cold and snow outcome. The evolution from mid December on will indeed be very interesting. As we read the period around mid December is key to observing effects from wave 1 event and maybe a further weakening of the PV. You can't help but feel a bit better about the odds of snow and cold here eventually . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 This could be one of those winters that feature moderate sized snowstorms (between 6 and 12 inches) or clippers that are immediately followed by very cold temps because of a -EPO and PV parked over southern Canada. Snowpack retention ftw 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 35 minutes ago, losetoa6 said: We take 1 month at a time here The point I was making is that it would be hard for it to not "catch on" at this point, considering we are now in December lol. As for the rest of winter, January isn't that far away now, and our snow climo improves a lot from today, so worth monitoring the LR pattern trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Not surprisingly, the new CanSIPS has a pretty good look for December, as the other LR guidance has been advertising for at least the first half. Looks like crap for the rest of met winter, as do the latest runs of the CFS. did the Cansips once look bad for December? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 7 minutes ago, Ji said: did the Cansips once look bad for December? Just from memory of others posting it over the past couple of months, regardless of how December turns out, the Cansips will have gotten it right at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 23 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Just from memory of others posting it over the past couple of months, regardless of how December turns out, the Cansips will have gotten it right at some point. That’s the thing with it and the CFS. They spit out enough solutions that they almost by default get it right 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 GFS a little further south with the SE Canada trough....maybe enough to deliver a little cold before it wraps up? A possible trend to watch... ETA: CMC with the same trend...just not going to be enough to get it done as it looks now. A nice cold high would be just what the doc ordered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 GFS about to go boom!? Yes!! Dec 14 is the one to watch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: GFS about to go boom!? Yes!! Dec 14 is the one to watch. first it was Dec 1 to watch...then it was dec 5....then it was dec 10 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 WB 12Z GFS Next weekend fantasyland...I have no expectations but this December is better than the last couple to watch... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: first it was Dec 1 to watch...then it was dec 5....then it was dec 10 You must be new here 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS Next weekend fantasyland i wish that was next weekend....thats in 2 weekends. THat would make our winter man Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 This is already better than last year when seemingly nothing ever showed on models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS Next weekend fantasyland I’m gonna say that the eps odds of seeing greater than 3” of snow over the next 15 days is gonna be about 30% for my area. And I think that will be it’s odds from now until March lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: This is already better than last year when seemingly nothing ever showed on models. i think the models showed some promising stuff in Dec last year....but after jan--it was lights out--couldnt even find a model to show me snow that i could drive too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GFS Next weekend fantasyland...I have no expectations but this December is better than the last couple to watch... Looks like a pink horse with a yellow mane Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 TT snow maps after 240h are buggy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: If only that was inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted December 1, 2020 Share Posted December 1, 2020 I like that miniature WV state outline over my house. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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