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yoda

December Medium/Long Range Discussion

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10 minutes ago, frd said:

Damn .... game on ! :sled:

 

Nothing quite like seeing NASA's GEOS forecast a 240-hour lower-stratospheric heat flux event that would rank among the biggest ever observed for any time of year in MERRA2 reanalysis. https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/ann_data.html
 
 
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What is a heat flux event? Is this the same sudden stratospheric warming?

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How is all of this, especially the STJ, happening in a borderline strong Niña?
It all sounds way too good to be true, and something I’d expect from a Modoki Niño.

I’m pretty sure it’s because the Nina is dying. Someone posted information about it earlier....

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9 minutes ago, Fozz said:

How is all of this, especially the STJ, happening in a borderline strong Niña?

It all sounds way too good to be true, and something I’d expect from a Modoki Niño.

Enso is no longer the very reliable prediction tool it once was. 

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Mount Holly's (new) quick take on late week.. they did say to stay tuned lol.

A cold front associated with the low will cross the area, ending the warmer temperatures and bringing a sudden return to Winter. Rains will likely change to snow and some accumulations are possible later Thu night and into Friday. Still a week away, so exact details will have to wait until we get closer, but this could affect travel during the upcoming holiday.

 

 

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1 minute ago, losetoa6 said:

Gfs HH would be a fun xmas eve tracking system imo .

Way more interesting events to track than last year.  We were staring at one awful look after another this time last year.  :tomato:

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I’m guarded against being interested, but my outer weenie wants it so bad. I think it’s possible - we’ve shown it before - but I’d absolutely prefer a small overrunning 2-4” event than trying to get this thing to work.

That said, it would truly be the Christmas weenie miracle of all Christmas weenie miracles were it to occur, and I don’t think ANY of us would forget it.

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1 hour ago, Fozz said:

How is all of this, especially the STJ, happening in a borderline strong Niña?

It all sounds way too good to be true, and something I’d expect from a Modoki Niño.

There are theories that the warming SST profile overall in conjunction with some anomalies we didn’t used to see concurrently has muted typical enso response recently. 

1 hour ago, anotherman said:


I’m pretty sure it’s because the Nina is dying. Someone posted information about it earlier....

I’m in the Frd camp that usually there is a lag to enso but it’s possible that the weaker then expected peak along with anomalous warm pools in other places like the north PAC mute the Nina response the same way the nino response was muted in 2019. 

58 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Enso is no longer the very reliable prediction tool it once was. 

On this we agree. 

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