jaydreb Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 GFS looks different than 18z but the hp gets pushed off and the storm cuts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 7 minutes ago, jaydreb said: GFS looks different than 18z but the hp gets pushed off and the storm cuts. Ji should be around any second that 00z looks even more disastrous than 18z overall. ETA: In seriousness, didn’t look at the run but based on that verbatim map, wouldn’t take much adjustment for a more favorable outcome. Push that High further west where its more of a hat on top of the low..would help shove the low east vs north. At least I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Looks like our blocking is blocking us from getting snow or cold 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 If we keep getting cutters and rain in severe ao and nao....winters as we know them are gone forever 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, Ji said: Looks like our blocking is blocking us from getting snow or cold Lol it was a pretty huge shift from 18z. This would argue a better outcome is possible if not likely. At least if it played out no one can blame a lack of blocking or say it’s not ideally placed. That’s a classic Greenland block. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, Ji said: If we keep getting cutters and rain in severe ao and nao....winters as we know them are gone forever How much snow did you get last week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 How much snow did you get last week?6-10 less than I thought 3 days b4 the storm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 8 minutes ago, Ji said: If we keep getting cutters and rain in severe ao and nao....winters as we know them are gone forever In all seriousness though, let this play out. You know we do better as blocking relaxes not as it forms. We just saw that play out. We had a legit threat that barely missed as the last round broke down. The blocking is in its inception there. Look at the last 2 serious blocking episodes. March 18 we suffered a cold rain in early March in the infancy of that blocking regime before getting several quality snow chances (and at least 1 some more hits depending on exact location). January 2016 we had a couple rain storms and I seem to recall you saying EXACTLY this same thing. Then something happened like a week later. Maybe it will come to me. Just saying let this play out. If we actually get the blocking advertised on guidance and NOTHING comes of it but cutters and rain I will be shocked but also alarmed. But that’s not how I think it plays out. I do think you might have to be more patient then you want to be though. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 I hope Ji doesn’t look at the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 6 minutes ago, Ji said: 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: How much snow did you get last week? 6-10 less than I thought 3 days b4 the storm You gonna make it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 3 minutes ago, jaydreb said: I hope Ji doesn’t look at the CMC. That’s from the miller b storm after Xmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 @Ji let’s analyze this though. Then I’m getting some sleep. The GFS drives that storm up into a blocked in high and it literally makes it to Erie and gets shredded. Then jumps hundreds of miles SE and redevelops off the coast. How often is that how it plays out? Usually it jumps once it hits that kind of confluence not 12 hours after being sheared to oblivion by it. Path of least resistance and all. Meanwhile the CMC has so much blocking that storm never even makes it here. It gets to Texas and spins loops for 3 days because there is literally too much blocking. I’m gonna say we should wait and that’s is a lot of room for this to adjust. Not the least of which is how the miller b around Dec 28 affects this and guidance is still shifting with that. But goodnight. Hopefully tomorrow we get the digital snow you want. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Could easily go away next run but the euro shows potential around New Years as have other models to varying degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Just now, SnowLover22 said: Could easily go away next run but the euro shows potential around New Years as have other models to varying degrees. Snow to sleet for us. It does produce a continuous swath of snow from the CA mountains all the way to RI.. Really slow mover. Seems to be one of those Atlantic VS pacific -PNA VS -NAO SE ridge vs confluence trilogies. Many more bizarre runs to come I'm sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 Great op euro run. That look would trend colder if it held... I think we should root on the day 7 clipper to bomb and form a 50/50 eveb if it’s rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Great op euro run. That look would trend colder if it held... I think we should root on the day 7 clipper to bomb and form a 50/50 eveb if it’s rain You need to change your display name. That's so 3 years ago. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: You need to change your display name. That's so 3 years ago. Perhaps Hurteagle? 1 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 32 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Great op euro run. That look would trend colder if it held... I think we should root on the day 7 clipper to bomb and form a 50/50 eveb if it’s rain Walt Drag feels the 28 and 29 th cyclone bombs out near Cape Code, and I could assume further deepening , maybe that plays a role in the threat period near Jan. 2 to 5 th. Also of note the continuous North Atlantic wave breaking events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 This is interesting, next 15 days , most of the snowfall action is far to the West. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 48 minutes ago, CAPE said: You need to change your display name. That's so 3 years ago. Yeah I need to contact a mod. Waiting for James Harden to be a 76er I’ll go with HardenHadleyCelll 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said: Yeah I need to contact a mod. Waiting for James Harden to be a 76er I’ll go with HardenHadleyCelll You can do it yourself. It's under Account settings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 30 minutes ago, frd said: This is interesting, next 15 days , most of the snowfall action is far to the West. Looks like climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 31 minutes ago, frd said: This is interesting, next 15 days , most of the snowfall action is far to the West. I think i'm finding this less interesting than you do 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, leesburg 04 said: I think i'm finding this less interesting than you do Well, its disappointing, and interesting only to the degree of final outcomes and what some had mentioned as a window for significant snowfall potential. I thought I saw where the EPS was pooling some very cold air in Central Canada late in its run. Can we tap that in January as the pattern progresses. At least in the short-term Canada is not cold by its standards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 5 minutes ago, frd said: Well, its disappointing, and interesting only to the degree of final outcomes and what some had mentioned as a window for significant snowfall potential. I thought I saw where the EPS was pooling some very cold air in Central Canada late in its run. Can we tap that in January as the pattern progresses. At least in the short-term Canada is not cold by its standards. This was always Mitchnicks go to....are you him? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, leesburg 04 said: This was always Mitchnicks go to....are you him? No. Started looking at this from back in the old days of dial up. Maybe Eastern weather and when Bastardi didnt hype the weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RDM Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 21 minutes ago, frd said: No. Started looking at this from back in the old days of dial up. Maybe Eastern weather and when Bastardi didnt hype the weather. Can't resist and no intent to stir up something, but when has Bastardi not hyped the weather? That was his M/O in his early days back in the 90's. He was always juicing things up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 33 minutes ago, frd said: Well, its disappointing, and interesting only to the degree of final outcomes and what some had mentioned as a window for significant snowfall potential. I thought I saw where the EPS was pooling some very cold air in Central Canada late in its run. Can we tap that in January as the pattern progresses. At least in the short-term Canada is not cold by its standards. The warmest anamolies in Atlantic Canada are pretty textbook for a -NAO. So I don't know this is necessarily all bad news 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 1 minute ago, RDM said: Can't resist and no intent to stir up something, but when had Bastardi not hyped the weather? That was his M/O in his early days back in the 90's. He was always juicing things up. I think he means before he turned long-range forecasting into an anti-climate change propaganda machine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 22, 2020 Share Posted December 22, 2020 2 minutes ago, RDM said: Can't resist and no intent to stir up something, but when had Bastardi not hyped the weather? That was his M/O in his early days back in the 90's. He was always juicing things up. He was a much better read in those days, more balanced IMHO and I learned a lot about tele-connections from him. Meanwhile check out the new AO forecast, yikes !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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