frd Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 A few more members yesterday jumped to the dramatic weakening 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Today 1/3 of the CFS members go for dramatic weakening, ( zonal wind reversal ) but the look in general is a weakening PV over time in two phases. Early January may feature a deep- AO dive in my opinion and a significant storm threat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Looking good as we near the end of December and early January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Impressive ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Latest GEFS for early Jan. This isn't a good look if you are a polar vortex. 5 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Yeah this upcoming SSW is very interesting but will it hit Philly? 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 41 minutes ago, frd said: Today 1/3 of the CFS members go for dramatic weakening, ( zonal wind reversal ) but the look in general is a weakening PV over time in two phases. Early January may feature a deep- AO dive in my opinion and a significant storm threat. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 5 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest GEFS for early Jan. This isn't a good look if you are a polar vortex. I dont consider myself knowledgeable on the 10hPa PV. In layman's terms, what does this weakening SPV translate to down in the trop? These SSWE's are discussed ad nauseum every year anymore it seems, but why? I know we can't say what it means for particular regions, but is it safe to assume with SPV weakening the PV doesn't allow it to 'stack vertically' over the Arctic Circle and can thus cause more displacing of the TPV and lobes to freely roam and wobble around rather than just remain anchored and stationary well to the N? Thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, WinterWxLuvr said: Place me in the euro camp. IMO there will be no low on a front. There will be a low dragging a front through. We will get warmer than forecast in front of it, it will rain, the front will come through, the wind will exceed expectations, the temps will fall short of modeled lows. This is not the type of setup we have much of a chance with. I am inclined to agree with this, but I have to keep the faith since I apparently called for a while Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 12 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest GEFS for early Jan. This isn't a good look if you are a polar vortex. Hey look! It's "The scream" PV edition...lol 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 15 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest GEFS for early Jan. This isn't a good look if you are a polar vortex. 4 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 45 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: I dont consider myself knowledgeable on the 10hPa PV. In layman's terms, what does this weakening SPV translate to down in the trop? These SSWE's are discussed ad nauseum every year anymore it seems, but why? I know we can't say what it means for particular regions, but is it safe to assume with SPV weakening the PV doesn't allow it to 'stack vertically' over the Arctic Circle and can thus cause more displacing of the TPV and lobes to freely roam and wobble around rather than just remain anchored and stationary well to the N? Thanks. There are some good scholarly papers on the TPV/SPV relationship(and correlation to the AO), and its complex to say the least. They are completely separate entities, and sometimes there is little to no interaction(coupling) during winter. The reality is, for sensible weather, we are far more interested in the TPV, which is actually larger(multiple vortices), and directly influences our weather. We want a pattern that can disrupt and dislodge these vortices, and bring them south. That's how we get the cold down into the midlatitudes. It can happen at times even with a relatively strong SPV/+AO, as occurred 2013-14 with the big EPO/WPO block. In general though, when we have a persistently negative AO winter(which we clearly want) the SPV is a weakling, and it gets that way largely by transfer of heat into the upper trop/strat. eta- @Ralph Wiggum Good read here: https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/98/1/bams-d-15-00212.1.xml Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 31 minutes ago, CAPE said: Latest GEFS for early Jan. This isn't a good look if you are a polar vortex. Its definitely not a good look if you're a rodent or eucalyptus tree either. Owl or Kuala Bear. I can't tell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 6z GFS is incredibly active, looping the surface through the run. Lots of chances (for the panic room). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Latest GEFS for early Jan. This isn't a good look if you are a polar vortex. Don’t do that man. All I saw was this isn’t a good look LOL 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Porkchop Express Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 Icon looks improved too far Christmas front (new 12z run) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 After Christmas....woof 2 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 GFS trending the wrong way for xmas snow. Also gives us a nice rainy coastal a few days later. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, jaydreb said: GFS trending the wrong way for xmas snow. Also gives us a nice rainy coastal a few days later. I’ve see this before I think...lol that would be extra painful but good thing it’s an eternity away 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 3 minutes ago, LP08 said: After Christmas....woof The week or two after Xmas look primed for a big East Coast storm. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, losetoa6 said: Mothman? ....or boobs ? Def boobs 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 28 minutes ago, LP08 said: I’ve see this before I think...lol that would be extra painful but good thing it’s an eternity away OP at range, but it's almost the exact same location as the last of debacle. Really looking to achieve offshore ideal track, hopefully upstream blocking will shake things up. Also this regarding the 25th. Ethan Sacoransky @blizzardof96 · 8m Model guidance will continue to struggle with the #Christmas system. The storm energy is currently located over a data sparse region of the north pacific & is embedded within a broad/complex jet streak. The energy is incident on the west coast by Monday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 GFS ops have insisted on the monster block developing after the x-mas frontal passage.....and reloads it this run. Ens up to now seem pretty muted....you would think there would be a better signal. Wait and see... eta: 12z gefs sniffing it out now.... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 21 minutes ago, poolz1 said: GFS ops have insisted on the monster block developing after the x-mas frontal passage.....and reloads it this run. Ens up to now seem pretty muted....you would think there would be a better signal. Wait and see... eta: 12z gefs sniffing it out now.... If that verifies I know the Op gfs shows that low inland, but we’d def be able to pinch that H5 low farther southeast. Long way to go. Could be a mirage, could be a signal.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 25 minutes ago, poolz1 said: GFS ops have insisted on the monster block developing after the x-mas frontal passage.....and reloads it this run. Ens up to now seem pretty muted....you would think there would be a better signal. Wait and see... Also pondering data sparse regions with some of these Northern disturbances and last minute model swings. HM did mention if blocking develops robustly as the models indicate it could lead to interesting low latitude winter storm analogs. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 @poolz1 was just coming to say that GEFS definitely has some support for a storm running to our south with a cold high to the north around D9. Not much more to say at this point. ~D12 or so also. Pattern looks active AF from Xmas onward with a stout -NAO and -AO. Rest up now.. 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: @poolz1 was just coming to say that GEFS definitely has some support for a storm running to our south with a cold high to the north around D9. Not much more to say at this point. ~D12 or so also. Pattern looks active AF from Xmas onward with a stout -NAO and -AO. Rest up now.. Really does look active! Right as start entering prime climo too.... The fact that we had nothing last year and it being the first threat of the season....I am still recuperating from the last track..lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 1 hour ago, frd said: OP at range, but it's almost the exact same location as the last of debacle. Really looking to achieve offshore ideal track, hopefully upstream blocking will shake things up. Also this regarding the 25th. Ethan Sacoransky @blizzardof96 · 8m Model guidance will continue to struggle with the #Christmas system. The storm energy is currently located over a data sparse region of the north pacific & is embedded within a broad/complex jet streak. The energy is incident on the west coast by Monday evening. Thanks for the data, good info Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted December 19, 2020 Share Posted December 19, 2020 2 hours ago, losetoa6 said: Mothman? ....or boobs ? Or squidward...Polar vortex on that run lookin like: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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