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40/70 Benchmark

December 2020 Discussion

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14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I see no way out of it right now, which explains my misery on the heels of my Boxing day redux.

Gonna need to get lucky bc this is January. and Feb will be worse.

Meh no way

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I know the mood is awful but let's face it... Nobody has any clue what the weather will be like in a few weeks let alone February and March. No model, no human. I respect all the Mets (and non mets) in here but let's face it, nobody ever gets long range right - at least no more right than chance alone would dictate. 2 weeks ago I was told I'd have feet of snow on the ground right now. Nope, didn't happen. I would love to see some data that shows a different conclusion but it seems that anything beyond a week is no more right than the New York Times horoscope page. 

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Just now, alex said:

I know the mood is awful but let's face it... Nobody has any clue what the weather will be like in a few weeks let alone February and March. No model, no human. I respect all the Mets (and non mets) in here but let's face it, nobody ever gets long range right - at least no more right than chance alone would dictate. 2 weeks ago I was told I'd have feet of snow on the ground right now. Nope, didn't happen. I would love to see some data that shows a different conclusion but it seems that anything beyond a week is no more right than the New York Times horoscope page. 

Disagree

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4 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

JB thinks a snowier pattern will begin the 2nd week of January

Not just JB I realize he has a major bias toward cold and snow but Michael Ventrice also supports the view too. He is a more neutral Met or another follows what the models show.  

 

Image

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5 minutes ago, alex said:

I know the mood is awful but let's face it... Nobody has any clue what the weather will be like in a few weeks let alone February and March. No model, no human. I respect all the Mets (and non mets) in here but let's face it, nobody ever gets long range right - at least no more right than chance alone would dictate. 2 weeks ago I was told I'd have feet of snow on the ground right now. Nope, didn't happen. I would love to see some data that shows a different conclusion but it seems that anything beyond a week is no more right than the New York Times horoscope page. 

I agree and always have 100%. Beyond a couple weeks it's as good as a coin flip.

 

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54 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Wait....Laconia, NH is well over snowfall climo? That settles it...its been a great month.

A lot of interior CT into MA is what I meant. Roughly 495 down to 84. Probably not as far east as you. It's good to put things in perspective too. 

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Even in Holliston I have 17” for the month with 15 days of snow cover so far. Both solidly above climo. 

 

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5 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

18z GFS  Para is consistent  with a coastal. This run hits us. 

prateptype_cat.us_ne.png

prateptype_cat.us_ne (1).png

prateptype_cat.us_ne (2).png

I still see the old 12/22 run in Tidbits.

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I have only had the one snow storm this year.  Doesn’t really matter how far behind I am on the snow table, it’s all an even playing field again now.

It’s like going into overtime in a basketball game.  Doesn’t matter what came before.

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Even in Holliston I have 17” for the month with 15 days of snow cover so far. Both solidly above climo. 

 

I swear some on here think they  live at 2K in Stowe

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5 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Holliston sounds like one of those obscure place names Larry Cosgrove would use in a forecast. 

Lol it’s definitely a small random town. 

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7 minutes ago, PhineasC said:

Holliston sounds like one of those obscure place names Larry Cosgrove would use in a forecast. 

Everytime he posts it I think of this.

 

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5 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I swear some on here think they  live at 2K in Stowe

Grinch storm broke a lot of people. :lol:

Kind of ruined the vibe of the good start for many peeps...so I kind of get it. But that isn’t an excuse to start punting January. Especially when model guidance is all over the map...and these same models basically wanted to puke all over December too. Then they started getting optimistic, and then tried to pull the rug out again early in the month....

Remember all the panic of December not panning out after 12/5 disappointed some folks and they were complaining that the pig was coming back by 12/15 or 12/20? Lol...then we got a major snowstorm. 

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8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Grinch storm broke a lot of people. :lol:

Kind of ruined the vibe of the good start for many peeps...so I kind of get it. But that isn’t an excuse to start punting January. Especially when model guidance is all over the map...and these same models basically wanted to puke all over December too. Then they started getting optimistic, and then tried to pull the rug out again early in the month....

Remember all the panic of December not panning out after 12/5 disappointed some folks and they were complaining that the pig was coming back by 12/15 or 12/20? Lol...then we got a major snowstorm. 

I think the Grinch combined with rain for the forseeable future makes this more mentally challenging, nothing to look forward to which goes a long way. The fast start is almost counter productive since it raises hopes for the season as well. There isnt much to look forward to up in ski country either, so no escape :lol:

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15 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Grinch storm broke a lot of people. :lol:

Kind of ruined the vibe of the good start for many peeps...so I kind of get it. But that isn’t an excuse to start punting January. Especially when model guidance is all over the map...and these same models basically wanted to puke all over December too. Then they started getting optimistic, and then tried to pull the rug out again early in the month....

Remember all the panic of December not panning out after 12/5 disappointed some folks and they were complaining that the pig was coming back by 12/15 or 12/20? Lol...then we got a major snowstorm. 

Happens every year

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38 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

I swear some on here think they  live at 2K in Stowe

It’s quite sad to see people lose it over something that falls from rather sky.

best of both worlds right now.  No snowpack and above normal snowfall.

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10 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said:

Happens every year

This was admittedly worse than most grinches. There was deep snow cover across a huge percentage of the posting subforum after a pretty big time storm on 12/16-17....those types of storms don’t grow on trees, especially first 3 weeks of December. 

Then the progged NAO blocking for late December started to look crappier in the days approaching the grinch storm, which caused us to lose 12/29 and then recently it looks worse in early January. So a lot of people are playing the “pattern pushed back so it’s bogus” card. Even if that isn’t really sound reasoning. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

This was admittedly worse than most grinches. There was deep snow cover across a huge percentage of the posting subforum after a pretty big time storm on 12/16-17....those types of storms don’t grow on trees, especially first 3 weeks of December. 

Then the progged NAO blocking for late December started to look crappier in the days approaching the grinch storm, which caused us to lose 12/29 and then recently it looks worse in early January. So a lot of people are playing the “pattern pushed back so it’s bogus” card. Even if that isn’t really sound reasoning. 

I get we are in a bad stretch, but seems early to punt winter.  Hopefully we get some improvement around 2nd week of the year.

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29 minutes ago, Lava Rock said:

Can you explain, as I tend to agree with alex

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk
 

So were you around in Jan 11 Feb 13 Jan 15 March 18? We were touting an excellent snow pattern a month out! 

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5 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

It’s quite sad to see people lose it over something that falls from rather sky.

best of both worlds right now.  No snowpack and above normal snowfall.

A lot of people like myself enjoy winter. I find it rather depressing to have temps in the 40s and 50s with rain or hell even bare ground. There's nothing quite like a snowy landscape. And obviously for people like you and I, this is typically expected. What compounds it, is when people see nothing but a crappy pattern for winter enthusiasts, as far as we can go out with any sense of accuracy. 

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So were you around in Jan 11 Feb 13 Jan 15 March 18? We were touting an excellent snow pattern a month out! 

Lol, I can't remember the weather last week some times. Four times over so many years doesn't mean much to me. Still seems like a gamble

 

Sent from my Pixel 4a using Tapatalk

 

 

 

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45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Grinch storm broke a lot of people. :lol:

Kind of ruined the vibe of the good start for many peeps...so I kind of get it. But that isn’t an excuse to start punting January. Especially when model guidance is all over the map...and these same models basically wanted to puke all over December too. Then they started getting optimistic, and then tried to pull the rug out again early in the month....

Remember all the panic of December not panning out after 12/5 disappointed some folks and they were complaining that the pig was coming back by 12/15 or 12/20? Lol...then we got a major snowstorm. 

I never once panicked about December, even before guidance supported a neg NAO.

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