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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion

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25 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said:

Still have nightmares of the March 2018 miss in a similarly pronounced west based -NAO pattern.

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Thanks for the reminder...that was painful

855C242F-CD98-4D9B-9CC6-441B80C79054_1_201_a.jpeg

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8 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:
Borrowed from the TN forum...
 
This 10-15 day hemispheric-scale pattern is teetering on a knife's edge between total dumpster fire & an ice box in the CONUS during early Feb w/ basically no room for anything in between.
Image
 
 

 

 

 I am terrible at reading those type of maps for what they mean at the surface but I know extended runs have definitely shown a lot of abnormal cold in Canada for February.  Someone mentioned that the split polar vortex cold will now be on our side of the globe in February where currently it's on the other side. Take it all for what it's worth and we all know how bad LR models can be but honestly February does not have a bad look for being a wintry month in our sub. If it does get very cold hopefully we can get into a clippery pattern and the ice fisherman can have their fun but I have a feeling that what some to our Southeast considerate "dumpster fire" could actually mean less cold with lots of storminess in our neck of the woods.  Anomalous cold is not as important up here as it is down there for snowstorms.

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Without even looking at a prog, you will be right 99 times out of 100 if you bet against a repeat of March 2012.

Imagine the growing season if we can link a March 2012 with the warmest April ever. By May it’s really too warm to screw with climatology enough to make widespread freezes.


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 I am terrible at reading those type of maps for what they mean at the surface but I know extended runs have definitely shown a lot of abnormal cold in Canada for February.  Someone mentioned that the split polar vortex cold will now be on our side of the globe in February where currently it's on the other side. Take it all for what it's worth and we all know how bad LR models can be but honestly February does not have a bad look for being a wintry month in our sub. If it does get very cold hopefully we can get into a clippery pattern and the ice fisherman can have their fun but I have a feeling that what some to our Southeast considerate "dumpster fire" could actually mean less cold with lots of storminess in our neck of the woods.  Anomalous cold is not as important up here as it is down there for snowstorms.
That map is better than when I commented on the EPS yesterday or the day before. That large ridge extending north of Alaska is I believe an extension of a -WPO and probably owing to the -AO. So if the MJO doesn't lose amplitude from unfavorable phases and keeps going into 8-1-2, I could believe very cold air getting down sometime in February. Would think the active flow pattern should continue as the La Nina forcing continues I'm the Pacific.

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Imagine the growing season if we can link a March 2012 with the warmest April ever. By May it’s really too warm to screw with climatology enough to make widespread freezes.

 

 

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whatever happened with your greenhouse thing you built in the OG Morch? Up in Saukville right?

 

iirc you kind of got ran out of here with all the constant torch talk....

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The block wants to shred anything and everything. Euro/ukie have the energy survive while the eps even pushes precip up into the most of the sub for wave 2. This thing isn’t far off. 

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been the story for awhile. Cutter/Rain or a shredded POS shunted further south and east or into oblivion due to blocking. Something needs to break the several years trend. 

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29 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said:

:yikes:

not a true suicide run. That was last February when a surefire 12" er drifted off into oblivion over 2 runs 36 hours out. 

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14 minutes ago, Baum said:

not a true suicide run. That was last February when a surefire 12" er drifted off into oblivion over 2 runs 36 hours out. 

This has legs to do the opposite imo

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

not a true suicide run. That was last February when a surefire 12" er drifted off into oblivion over 2 runs 36 hours out. 

That was a classic

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^yep. board infamy. Hate to see Mchenry endure that collapse. Here's hoping for  a reverse of this upcoming.

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6z EPS
Giving up on this already? Don't think so
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1611619200-HNe728domss.png&key=4e4118b8c2b10dc453360c6a00ec3f55dc6655031097157540edb1b946b46342
06Z EPS Upper Midwest zoom individual members. Some good hits locally, some clunkers. Obviously would like to see the number of good hits on the members increase along with favorable trends in the operational models for the 12z cycle. 010202fa18ad018e425a05c9c8353fa0.jpg7f4965656abe8c0a1098812d42d7dfb0.jpg

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GFS still not playing ball with the advection snow on Saturday night-Sunday. Interesting it has a strong enough LLJ with such a weak sauce surface low/trough to keep everything farther north and cause mixing down here.

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Just now, RCNYILWX said:

GFS still not playing ball with the advection snow on Saturday night-Sunday. Interesting it has a strong enough LLJ with such a weak sauce surface low/trough to keep everything farther north and cause mixing down here.

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Doesn't seem right

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Doesn't seem right
I don't want to rule out us mixing at any point in that WAA regime. The setup looks rather similar to the late December event with better cold air available leading in. Coming so closely on the heels of departure of cold dry high pressure, we should snow decently down here.

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