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Winter 2020-21 Medium/Long Range Discussion


Hoosier
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I'm not complaining that the medium range looks active, but I refuse to get hyped up over event #2 until #1 delivers. I'd like it if this first wave early next week could set down a nice swath of at least some snow and help dictate the path of the second storm (straight over mby :) ). Too many times have we had several storms all but lined up, only for each of them to vanish like a heat mirage in the desert. 

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4 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Called a -ao buddy.

Need better cooperation on the Pacific side. We'll see if the HP descending into Mongolia and parts of Siberia next week will have any inverse effects further east across the North Pacific. The AO has been negative all month, but the Pacific is putrid. We haven't seen any legit cold shot yet. 

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36 minutes ago, Geoboy645 said:

So uhh the Euro went a little nuts out west around New Years Day.

snku_acc.png

snku_acc.png

unknown.png

Good thing it's Kuchera at 222 hrs. So the chances of this happening are zilch to none. But just to even see this modeled at fantasyland is crazy.

Damn, that’s over 3 years worth of snow for Manhattan, KS. They average 14” annually. 

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3 hours ago, Geoboy645 said:

So uhh the Euro went a little nuts out west around New Years Day.

snku_acc.png

snku_acc.png

unknown.png

Good thing it's Kuchera at 222 hrs. So the chances of this happening are zilch to none. But just to even see this modeled at fantasyland is crazy.

The day Salina, KS has 46" on the ground while we have like 4" I will literally eat a hat.

Although, I like the idea of building up a big snowpack over the Plains. Might help forestall the standard La Niña drought and help chase season '21 be rockin'.

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22 minutes ago, Baum said:

FWIW....THE ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW A STRONG   
CYCLONE TRACKING INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS   
CENTERED AROUND DECEMBER 30.   - per quad cities AFD

Hoping the early week wave can overperform and deliver a decent antecedent airmass but naso confident

 

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1 hour ago, Baum said:

FWIW....THE ECMWF/GFS BOTH SHOW A STRONG   
CYCLONE TRACKING INTO THE MIDWEST FROM THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS   
CENTERED AROUND DECEMBER 30.   - per quad cities AFD

Beneficial rains at least. Maybe some front end ZR or snow

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