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Fall/Winter 2020/21 Banter Thread


madwx
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15 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Ive had 1 decent winter storm and 1 mediocre slop fest with 2 other events that ranged from 1-2". Im already over 10" for the season and hit my typical once a season 6" snowstorm. Ive checked off the boxes and with the 6" snow coming December 1st it made for the Christmas feeling. 

I got lucky threading the needle with the 2nd storm and personally I enjoy front loaded winters so im content now. It can rain, it can snow, I could get an ice storm, but since my main winter boxes have been checked and checked early im already playing with house money haha. 

But your snow will melt soon, if it hasn't already.  Doesn't really count for much, in my book...although of course it's always better to have storms vs. not having anything at all.  

By 12/10, there will probably be no snow cover at all in the Midwest...including the UP and even at INL.  That is shocking and ridiculous...it should be deep winter up there.  But people's expectations here are so low..."hooray, I got a 4" storm which melted in 2 days".  I guess some are content with that, but it's not winter.  Not picking on you specifically...just the general sense of the board.

If it's mid-late November and winter hasn't settled in, that's fine...but it's not right to have nice and mild sunny days in DJF.

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1 minute ago, mississaugasnow said:

Ive had 1 decent winter storm and 1 mediocre slop fest with 2 other events that ranged from 1-2". Im already over 10" for the season and hit my typical once a season 6" snowstorm. Ive checked off the boxes and with the 6" snow coming December 1st it made for the Christmas feeling. 

I got lucky threading the needle with the 2nd storm and personally I enjoy front loaded winters so im content now. It can rain, it can snow, I could get an ice storm, but since my main winter boxes have been checked and checked early im already playing with house money haha. 

Nah. The November storm was a nice treat after the many snowless Novembers we had from 2006-2017. I'll take that as a win and well deserved after that hideous run. YYZ is up ~14" for the season which is an amazing start and I hope we can continue that. Almost everyone around us since 2009 has had some sort of record-breaking winter (in a good way). While we keep perpetuating 2007-08 and 2008-09, where many in this sub forum did well on anyways. We deserve a record-breaking winter because neither 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2017-18 were as it was for others. 3/5 futility winters happened since 2006-07 for a broader perspective which is insane. And to make it worse, 2005-06, 2015-16 and 2016-17 are in the top 10 or top 15 as well. So no, I am not ready for Spring. You need to expand your checklist because this ain’t it, chief.

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2 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

But your snow will melt soon, if it hasn't already.  Doesn't really count, in my book.

By 12/10, there will probably be no snow cover at all in the Midwest...including the UP and even at INL.  That is shocking and ridiculous...it should be deep winter up there.  But people's expectations here are so low..."hooray, I got a 4" storm which melted in 2 days".  I guess some are content with that, but it's not winter.  Not picking on you specifically...just the general sense of the board.

If it's mid-late November and winter hasn't settled in, that's fine...but it's ridiculous to have nice and mild sunny days in DJF.

This. 

Our November snow melted in 3 days and the snow we got 2 days ago melted too despite being 14" on the season. Down here and towards SE Michigan, snow cover really doesn't start to build and pack on until after mid-December. But regardless its only Dec 4 and winter just started as you stated. I've gotten accustomed to the gloomy dark days of winter since it's a common thing here and we get less than 9 hours of daylight per day right now.

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9 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

This. 

Our November snow melted in 3 days and the snow we got 2 days ago melted too despite being 14" on the season. Down here and towards SE Michigan, snow cover really doesn't start to build and pack on until after mid-December. But regardless its only Dec 4 and winter just started as you stated. I've gotten accustomed to the gloomy dark days of winter since it's a common thing here and we get less than 9 hours of daylight per day right now.

I'm at 6.2" with 4 days of 1"+ snowcover.  It has now all melted except for a few patches & piles, but one interesting thing to note is before the mild night last night, brilliant sun the previous 2 days did not melt the snowpack very fast. Yes it slowly melted, but it really was a Testament to the low Sun angle. 

 

One thing I always find interesting is that if it's a front or back loaded Winter, the public tends to always remember the end of it.  If we went snowless through New Year's then got dumped on from mid January to mid March, people would remember it is a harsh Winter. If we were getting dumped on from Thanksgiving through New Year's and then the rest of the Winter was mild, they would remember it is a mild Winter.  The upcoming quiet stretch is quite perplexing however with the overwhelming signs of a wet winter in the southern Lakes, I can tell you I will be SHOCKED if this zzzz is a winter long theme. 

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14 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

This. 

Our November snow melted in 3 days and the snow we got 2 days ago melted too despite being 14" on the season. Down here and towards SE Michigan, snow cover really doesn't start to build and pack on until after mid-December. But regardless its only Dec 4 and winter just started as you stated. I've gotten accustomed to the gloomy dark days of winter since it's a common thing here and we get less than 9 hours of daylight per day right now.

Yep.  I agree it's good to be patient and not throw in the towel yet...but we need to let people be upset and vent if they need to.  The current pattern out to Dec 10 is horrible...no one needs to sugar coat it. 

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29 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

But your snow will melt soon, if it hasn't already.  Doesn't really count for much, in my book...although of course it's always better to have storms vs. not having anything at all.  

By 12/10, there will probably be no snow cover at all in the Midwest...including the UP and even at INL.  That is shocking and ridiculous...it should be deep winter up there.  But people's expectations here are so low..."hooray, I got a 4" storm which melted in 2 days".  I guess some are content with that, but it's not winter.  Not picking on you specifically...just the general sense of the board.

If it's mid-late November and winter hasn't settled in, that's fine...but it's not right to have nice and mild sunny days in DJF.

 

28 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Nah. The November storm was a nice treat after the many snowless Novembers we had from 2006-2017. I'll take that as a win and well deserved after that hideous run. YYZ is up ~14" for the season which is an amazing start and I hope we can continue that. Almost everyone around us since 2009 has had some sort of record-breaking winter (in a good way). While we keep perpetuating 2007-08 and 2008-09, where many in this sub forum did well on anyways. We deserve a record-breaking winter because neither 2010-11, 2013-14, 2014-15 and 2017-18 were as it was for others. 3/5 futility winters happened since 2006-07 for a broader perspective which is insane. And to make it worse, 2005-06, 2015-16 and 2016-17 are in the top 10 or top 15 as well. So no, I am not ready for Spring. You need to expand your checklist because this ain’t it, chief.

 

I can answer both these relatively the same. Low expectations and low checklist is because of where I live/lived. I used to live right along the lakeshore in Mississauga so numerous winter events were slop, and now I live up on the escarpment but in the Hamilton/Niagara area so a lot of events are similar to lakeshore living (some aren't like Tuesdays storm) 

I also have a cottage though up hwy 11 in the Almaguin highlands (Parry Sound district but closer to hwy 11) and I go up there a bunch in the winter. They currently have 12" of snow on the ground and unlikely they see the ground again until April. Most winters up there max out around 25-40" on the ground from Late December-Mid March and regulary dip below -20C even in the warmest winters for the GTA. Its just a completely different world only 2.5-3.5 hours north of the city. 

 

So I guess long story short is I have a basic checklist for my home, but that's because I know what "real" winter is supposed to look like and the GTA will never have it lol. 

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10 hours ago, michsnowfreak said:

I'm at 6.2" with 4 days of 1"+ snowcover.  It has now all melted except for a few patches & piles, but one interesting thing to note is before the mild night last night, brilliant sun the previous 2 days did not melt the snowpack very fast. Yes it slowly melted, but it really was a Testament to the low Sun angle. 

 

One thing I always find interesting is that if it's a front or back loaded Winter, the public tends to always remember the end of it.  If we went snowless through New Year's then got dumped on from mid January to mid March, people would remember it is a harsh Winter. If we were getting dumped on from Thanksgiving through New Year's and then the rest of the Winter was mild, they would remember it is a mild Winter.  The upcoming quiet stretch is quite perplexing however with the overwhelming signs of a wet winter in the southern Lakes, I can tell you I will be SHOCKED if this zzzz is a winter long theme. 

Melted pretty quick here. I guess cause the snow was very powdery.  

Yes I agree. Very short attention spans. Winters like 2012-13 are perfect examples where it was fairly mild until mid January before winter finally started up. The general public as a result considered it a snowy and cold winter because of a few weeks lol. But we both know how mild it was. 

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14 hours ago, Snowstorms said:

Melted pretty quick here. I guess cause the snow was very powdery.  

Yes I agree. Very short attention spans. Winters like 2012-13 are perfect examples where it was fairly mild until mid January before winter finally started up. The general public as a result considered it a snowy and cold winter because of a few weeks lol. But we both know how mild it was. 

 We lucked out with snow around Christmas which stayed on the ground through early January in 2012-13, but definitely for the most part in the Midwest Winter did not start until mid January. in the end it ended up with slightly above average snowfall here.  But yes the attention spans are what where it's at.  I even heard people last year talking about it being a long Winter lmao, when we had cold and snow in April. 

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40 minutes ago, Hoosier said:

Would be interesting to see how the general public would remember 2000-01.  That was an extreme front loaded winter.  Would it be remembered as a tame winter?  

Agree that we are NOT the general public lol. I would say they remember 2000-01 as harsh  Because December was very harsh and even though January through April was extremely boring it took until mid February for the snowpack to melt.  Plus, this was coming after meh 1990s winters (despite the Jan 99 blizzard).  After so many snowy winters the next 2 decades I am not quite sure it would be remembered the same now. 1977-78 is another very front loaded Winter, were Winter was essentially over from active standpoint Room after the January 26th blizzard. But the snowpack did not melt until late March.

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7 hours ago, Hoosier said:

Would be interesting to see how the general public would remember 2000-01.  That was an extreme front loaded winter.  Would it be remembered as a tame winter?  

I was in 5th grade that winter. I’ll never forget the 40” December and how deep the snow seemed to get. That month and the blizzard of 99’ made me a snow weenie. The only other thing I remember about that season was a storm in mid March that dumped ~6”

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On 12/5/2020 at 1:26 PM, Hoosier said:

I guess I am different than the general public.  For example, 2006-2007.  Although winter came on strong especially by February, that shit period prior to that wasn't erased from my memory.

That winter literally started Jan 25th or something and ended March 7th. Barely 1.5 months. That's it. Better than 2011-12 though lol. 

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By far my least favourite storm track is a Low moving NW from central Illinois through Central Michigan and continuing NW. All we get is rain, then a backside flurry with the full load of cold air. 

You don’t get to enjoy any mild weather without accompanying rain and you get all the cold air without snow as the front passes. 

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Whether or not one has high expectations for winter to actually be snowy and cold...the medium to long range pattern is horrendous. There is no debate.


Where is the cold air?? It’s nowhere to be found in the lower 48 over the next 2 weeks, during the shortest days of the year. Worse yet is that no snow cover is building up north. It’s bad enough that we have no snow cover here, but it’s ridiculous that MSP and northern WI have bare ground which will probably continue for the foreseeable future. 
 

Even places in the Upper Midwest and northern plains will probably have a brown Christmas, at this rate. That’s like a 1-in-200 year occurrence in places like INL. 

We’ll see an occasional ensemble run or two that tries to build a -EPO in the medium range, but then it vaporizes. 
 

Has it always been true that we need a -EPO in order to get a decent wintry pattern around here? I always knew it was helpful, but didn’t think it was an absolute necessity. 


What is going on?? Will it ever change??

Ugh...

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Ladies and gentlemen, your attention please.  I now proudly present the latest installment of Chicago Snowfall Futility.  

With the current date of December 10, you may think it is too early to be commenting on snowfall futility.  But oh no, it is never too early, and futility must be discussed at any and all opportunities.

With 0.7" so far, the snow season has not had a worse start at ORD since 2012.   

I may present more stats in the coming days, but we'll see.

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