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hlcater

Major Hurricane Delta

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Delta honestly looks great right now, likely as of a result of the last minimization of shear(~15kts down to ~10kts) prior to landfall due to the turn more northward over the past several hours. Has through tomorrow morning to continue intensifying. In the near term, if current convective intensity persists and continues to expand like it has been this evening, a sneaky return to cat 4 would not surprise me before weakening starts to ensue tomorrow morning afternoon landfall.

bd5eaefb9c9c4c37feccc1d4a8b38f6d.jpg

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2 minutes ago, hlcater said:

Delta honestly looks great right now, likely as of a result of the last minimization of shear(~15kts down to ~10kts) prior to landfall due to the turn more northward over the past several hours. Has through tomorrow morning to continue intensifying. In the near term, if current convective intensity persists and continues to expand like it has been this evening, a sneaky return to cat 4 would not surprise me before weakening starts to ensue tomorrow afternoon through landfall.

bd5eaefb9c9c4c37feccc1d4a8b38f6d.jpg

Delta must be positively glowing from all the compliments we are giving it about its figure! Clearly those at-home latent heat releasing exercise videos have been paying off! Whew, is it hot in here or is that just Delta's eye?

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9 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

um.....

 

 

Screen Shot 2020-10-08 at 10.28.22 PM.png

Took me a couple tries to get it to work on my iPhone.  Site isn’t designed for super good public consumption.  Y’all got lucky I have a friend with the link. 

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Obviously the satellite presentation has become fairly impressive, but a bit surprised that NHC continues to nudge up the intensity. Hasn’t been much flight-level and certainly not any SFMR data to support 120mph.

edit: does look like the NOAA plane did just find 111kt (128mph) FL-winds though..

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7 minutes ago, jojo762 said:
Obviously the satellite presentation has become fairly impressive, but a bit surprised that NHC continues to nudge up the intensity. Hasn’t been much flight-level and certainly not any SFMR data to support 120mph.

edit: does look like the NOAA plane did just find 111kt (128mph) FL-winds though..

If the eye will stay warm and clear, beyond the convection being a little more symmetrical, it will help the pressure to fall. The winds should correspond to mixing down better. Awaiting dropsonde data.

 

Also, RE: VWS tomorrow.. Yes, it will eventually be impacting Delta from the west. Noticed this post by Ryan @1900hurricane who hasn't been around on the forum lately.

 

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4 minutes ago, jojo762 said:

Obviously the satellite presentation has become fairly impressive, but a bit surprised that NHC continues to nudge up the intensity. Hasn’t been much flight-level and certainly not any SFMR data to support 120mph.

Hard to say. The pressure is down a couple more mbs, sat presentation better, flight level winds up. Not hard to think some of that mixes down somewhere. I think the sfmr data support 100 kts, and the flight level winds support 110, so they split the difference. 

 

MU

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2 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

Never realized that was you. You tweet some real good stuff!

Thanks, I appreciate it!

In this particular case, I think it's worth noting that the shear is coming below the anvil level, which can also be seen around 150 mb in the same sounding with opposite(ish) direction winds from the shearing layer. Might make it tricky to see it well on WV.

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6 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

If the eye will stay warm and clear, beyond the convection being a little more symmetrical, it will help the pressure to fall. The winds should correspond to mixing down better. Awaiting dropsonde data.

 

Also, RE: VWS tomorrow.. Yes, it will eventually be impacting Delta from the west. Noticed this post by Ryan @1900hurricane who hasn't been around on the forum lately.

 

Window of time is rapidly running out for more Delta strengthening. Shear will weaken it to high end category 1 in my opinion when it makes landfall tomorrow afternoon

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Looks like you can kinda already see the southwest shear taking effect..all the hot towers are kinda shifting north and the southern end is being a bit eroded some 

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11 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Looks like you can kinda already see the southwest shear taking effect..all the hot towers are kinda shifting north and the southern end is being a bit eroded some 

Shear isn't even to it yet. Just normal fluctuations in convection. Delta will be outrunning the better oceanic heat content soon

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It's stronger, it's weaker, it's stronger, it's weaker, let's callll the whole thing off ba da da dum! Honestly I foresee a depression by tomorrow*. So much for Delta being a smokin' hot piece of, storm. In all sincerity this has been a very interesting storm to study and watch, from the RI into a 4 with atypical eye presentation, the sudden dramatic weakening, the wind field expansion, the models basically nailing at a 4-5 day range the track for landfall but concurrently being so awful with intensity estimates. Not a boring one to watch or forecast that much is for sure. I am hopeful/heartened by the mass evacuations from the gulf ahead of this because people were so traumatized by Laura that loss of life on this will hopefully be far reduced. At the end of the day, that's the best possible outcome here. Mets have their strong storm at sea, and people on land don't die. That is why forecasters exist at the end of the day--it is to protect the public. Well, and help stock traders know when to sell shares of Tropicana. I really feel for some of those folks. Listening to their interview segments tonight as they fled again after going through Laura was sad to listen to. I hope they get a break soon, they've definitely endured a lot. 

 

*Also sarcasm.

 

MU

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The pressure was extrapolated from 700mb. I guess they either ran out of dropsondes or had a malfunction. That explains why the VDM came out so quick.  Eye diameter down to 20nm with the south side open.

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The pressure was extrapolated from 700mb. I guess they either ran out of dropsondes or had a malfunction. That explains why the VDM came out so quick.  Eye diameter down to 20nm with the south side open.
Shear finally nailing the core, all downhill from here as far as winds but the surge threat remains

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Delta clearly won't be as strong as Laura, and possibly not a major hurricane upon landfall. Nevertheless, quite a severe blow to the Gulf Coast of Louisiana, especially following the devastation of Laura in August.

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