Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,502
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    Weathernoob335
    Newest Member
    Weathernoob335
    Joined

Major Hurricane Delta


hlcater
 Share

Recommended Posts

14 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

Observed minus predicted water levels are already more than 4’ from Sabine Pass, TX to Eugene Island, LA. Already more than 6’ at Freshwater Canal Locks in LA. 
https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/inundationdb/storm/Delta.html

 

That comparison is a bit misleading. Looking at the "predictions", all of those observing sites near the coast "predict" ZERO flooding. That is incongruent with the storm surge forecast. That seems like the "no storm" prediction to me, so I don't think the water levels are 4' higher than the storm surge warning indicates. Still, a good link with good data. 

 

MU

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Moderately Unstable said:

That comparison is a bit misleading. Looking at the "predictions", all of those observing sites near the coast "predict" ZERO flooding. That is incongruent with the storm surge forecast. That seems like the "no storm" prediction to me, so I don't think the water levels are 4' higher than the storm surge warning indicates. Still, a good link with good data. 

 

MU

The “predict” numbers are the baseline, no water rise values that simply show the daily high tide/low tide water heights. You can see “forecast guidance” is a different category in the graph. When you click on the difference between observed and predicted, it’s showing how much higher the water is than where it “should” be. It’s not being compared to any forecast. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, gymengineer said:

The “predict” numbers are the baseline, no water rise values that simply show the daily high tide/low tide water heights. You can see “forecast guidance” is a different category in the graph. When you click on the difference between observed and predicted, it’s showing how much higher the water is than where it “should” be. It’s not being compared to any forecast. 

Okay that makes more sense. What you had said in the OP with the link confused me a bit because I thought you were implying those were predicted values, e.g., forecasted, not just the regular tides. 

 

MU

Link to comment
Share on other sites

responding to all those "well, it's all over" posts, and to quote the great agrarian philosopher and noted Son of the Soil Ron White" "It's not THAT the wind is blowing, it's WHAT the wind is blowing.  If you get hit by a Volvo, it doesn't matter how many push ups you can do."

  • Like 2
  • Confused 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Looks like the "eye" has shifted more E of N and Lake Charles will have more NE and N winds. If nothing else, hopefully that will keep the worst of the surge away from Cameron and Grand Chenier. Unfortunately this looks like Intracoastal City surrounding areas and points south of Lafayette will get worse surge than they experienced with Laura. This is the KPOE radar further away from the coast since KLCH was destroyed in Laura. So the crescent shape and lack of an eastern eyeband might be exaggerated a bit.
43eaa5d70cc60b52e845df05a9651892.gif

Link to comment
Share on other sites

000
WTNT61 KNHC 092300
TCUAT1

Hurricane Delta Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL       AL262020
600 PM CDT Fri Oct 09 2020

...DELTA MAKES LANDFALL NEAR CREOLE LOUISIANA...

National Weather Service Doppler radar imagery, Air Force Reserve 
Hurricane Hunter aircraft data, and surface observations indicate 
that Delta has made landfall near Creole, Louisiana, around 600 PM 
CDT (2300 UTC) with estimated maximum sustained winds of 100 mph 
(155 km/h).  Delta is a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson 
Hurricane Wind Scale.  The minimum central pressure estimated from 
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft data is 970 mb (28.64 
inches). 

A Florida Coastal Monitoring Tower near Lake Arthur, Louisiana, 
recently reported a sustained wind of 77 mph (123 km/h) and a gust 
to 96 mph (154 km/h).  

A NOAA National Weather Service water level gauge at Freshwater 
Canal Locks, Louisiana, recently reported storm surge inundation of 
over 8 feet above ground level. 


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.8N 93.1W
ABOUT 0 MI...0 KM E OF CREOLE LOUISIANA
ABOUT 10 MI...15 KM E OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH...155 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...970 MB...28.64 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brown

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

25 minutes ago, TheDreamTraveler said:

Still blows my mind we had Laura and Delta hit within 15 miles of eachother in less than 2 months. If 2020 didn't already look apocalyptic enough for the people living there

how about a category  2 and a 3 making landfall within a mile apart in 3 weeks ???

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...