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Major Hurricane Delta

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13 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Look for an area along the coast to increase in surge height if Delta really gets going by this evening. I think the 7-11 ft could be increased to 12-16 right of the forecasted point of landfall. The 7-11 may be extended further east of that increase as well.

 

With the decent rate of forward speed hopefully we dont see surges as high as 12 to 16 feet. If this was a slower moving storm that had time to pile the water in then that 12 to 16 feet of surge would be easy.

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14 minutes ago, Orangeburgwx said:

Funky little wind graph for the eye and eyewall0d152f35ed34f4d6147f56217e0eb2ec.jpg

Sent from my LML212VL using Tapatalk
 

Recon didn’t go straight through the eye like normal, they turned a bit once inside, hence the abnormal readings.

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Latest VDM still showing open eyewall. Based on IR it looks like there’s a weaker area rotating around that was to the south a couple minutes before the VDM. It’s now on the east side but looks a bit better now.

 

edit: that lasted like 10 minutes

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Hot towers on the south and east side look to have weakened a lot the last 30 minutes. Now we just have the intense band on the north side of the eye. Eyewall may stay open for a bit longer.

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3 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Continuing to improve. Really convenient when big structural changes occur during daylight as nothing beats visible.

eeb83734cfa0574fa2a6f972a1a7fa9a.gif&key=31cc0145ec5b32aed0a09e7b45f9be60e327a988c5cbf0d2ed206fd2b593119c

 

1 minute ago, JasonOH said:

The band is back and as soon as it showed up the whole thing got super ragged again. Not looking great right now.

Lol

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5 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

Sure doesn’t look good now. 

E38AF83A-4EAB-4E37-9507-86AF6DC16C6A.jpeg

Likely response of an intense convective plume going up in the northern to western semicircle creating subsidence in the SE region of the core. That may just as well wrap shortly. Either way the overall structure has improved significantly since early this morning. Recon is about to make another pass. Should know more in just a bit.

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3 minutes ago, JasonOH said:

Sure doesn’t look good now. 

E38AF83A-4EAB-4E37-9507-86AF6DC16C6A.jpeg

Chasing its tail

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6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Loving the frame by frame analysis of the IR appearance of the storm here... looks great... looks like crap... looks great again taking off now... it fell apart 

lol

Its in a relatively steady state with a slight bias towards intensification. As expected, IMO. I don't think the winds will ramp up much...maybe 110-115mph...

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6 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Loving the frame by frame analysis of the IR appearance of the storm here... looks great... looks like crap... looks great again taking off now... it fell apart 

lol

Literally this! Lol. Hilarious. Can't analyze frame by frame. Delta is organizing. It will look good at times then bad at times. This isn't going to look like Laura 

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5 minutes ago, NorthHillsWx said:

Loving the frame by frame analysis of the IR appearance of the storm here... looks great... looks like crap... looks great again taking off now... it fell apart 

lol

Feels like there's a degree of hurricane structure OCD in here...lol I mean I kinda get it from a weather geek standpoint, I suppose...hurricane perfectionism?:lol:

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Heh, was I analyzing frame by frame?

How about noting the obviously clear symmetrical eye at the end of that animation and obvious continued improvement. You know, the first clear eye we've had since Delta existed? :P

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FWIW I usually put much more stock in IR since it allows me to see finer detail than visible on cloud heights. Allows me to pick up different features that may not be as well shown on vis. 
 

in other news, recon got 102kt flight level NE of the eye.

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8 minutes ago, Windspeed said:

Heh, was I analyzing frame by frame?

How about noting the obviously clear symmetrical eye at the end of that animation and obvious continued improvement. You know, the first clear eye we've had since Delta existed? :P

I’d say you’ve been consistent in pointing out the gradual organizational trend of the storm today. Your posts have been bookended multiple times in the exact opposite observation by someone else thinking the storm is weakening after strengthening for 3 frames. Haha. Point is- we’re seeing a gradually strengthening system. Pressure falls and winds gradually responding. I think NHC forecast is on point though I can also see the storm failing to attain major again but barely. Large Ike-like storm at landfall so exact intensity is not that important anyways, other than for us weenies. 

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That's why you have to look at it over a longer period of time.  Sure there's going to be times that it looks better, and worse.  But over the last 6 hrs is it better than it was before that?  If so then it's generally improving.  If it looks worse than it did 6 hrs ago, then it's generally weakening.   

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