Brian5671 Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Up to 75 here now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 4 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Up to 75 here now. Just like the summer with the warmest temperatures often missing to the north of NYC Metro. Chester, Chester Airport, CT. KSNC (NWS/FAA - OKX) 22 Oct 1:55 pm 77 66 69 S 8 10.00 CLR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 66F here. Overcast. Been nothing but pleasantly cool. I love AC, but it hasn’t even been a thought. I wonder if we ill get the sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted October 22, 2020 Author Share Posted October 22, 2020 26 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: 66F here. Overcast. Been nothing but pleasantly cool. I love AC, but it hasn’t even been a thought. I wonder if we ill get the sun DPs of 60-65 aren't pleasantly cool. A/C is on for that reason plus it's 69 at both my weather stations in Nassau County currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 71/67 here currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 6 hours ago, jm1220 said: We’re overdue for a lousy stretch of winters, and the Nina background state in general is lousy for this area. We’ve gotten used to being spoiled. Our one real hope IMO is the NAO developing blocking every once in a while which can keep the SE ridge in check, and that happening in Dec. If we don’t see that the SE ridge dominates and we see constant lake cutters. If we make it to normal snow somehow this season I’d consider that a big win. Should be a huge winter for the upper Midwest, Rockies and NNE. I totally agree with you about us being spoiled in the past, I guess it's mother natures way in catching up with us. I'm hoping we do see a (just under 7 inches of snow here in HPN last winter) normal winter. Hey it's 2020, anything is possible these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 74/64 in bright sunshine, one gem of an afternoon for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 68 degrees here, overcast all day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Haven't seen that here in 3 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 12 minutes ago, Dan76 said: Haven't seen that here in 3 days. Right now we might get sun 1 of the next 7 days. Sunday looks nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
495weatherguy Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 7 hours ago, jm1220 said: We’re overdue for a lousy stretch of winters, and the Nina background state in general is lousy for this area. We’ve gotten used to being spoiled. Our one real hope IMO is the NAO developing blocking every once in a while which can keep the SE ridge in check, and that happening in Dec. If we don’t see that the SE ridge dominates and we see constant lake cutters. If we make it to normal snow somehow this season I’d consider that a big win. Should be a huge winter for the upper Midwest, Rockies and NNE. What is the significance of this? Not sure I understand what you mean. Are you implying that in this state we need to have a front loaded winter? If so, can you please explain this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Just like the summer with the warmest temperatures often missing to the north of NYC Metro. Chester, Chester Airport, CT. KSNC (NWS/FAA - OKX) 22 Oct 1:55 pm 77 66 69 S 8 10.00 CLR Well that explains it. I've been under a dense overcast all day and this shows that the edge is literally a few miles north of me.Had I gone a few minutes that direction I would have seen sun today like everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Zero sun today, bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 36 minutes ago, gravitylover said: Well that explains it. I've been under a dense overcast all day and this shows that the edge is literally a few miles north of me.Had I gone a few minutes that direction I would have seen sun today like everyone else. The sun is out anymore so you aren’t missing anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 Nice rainstorm Models are showing this. Hopefully it stays. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted October 22, 2020 Share Posted October 22, 2020 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Nice rainstorm Models are showing this. Hopefully it stays. As long as it doesn't rain on Halloween.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Tomorrow will be mild in the East, even as a major early-season snowstorm develops in the Northern Rockies and heads for the Northern Plains. That storm will bring a near-record to record cold air mass into the Northern Rockies and Northern Plains. Numerous single-digit low temperatures will be likely on Sunday morning in parts of Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. A few locations could even experience subzero low temperatures. However, much of this cold air will likely remain confined well west of the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions through much of the remainder of this month. A brief shot of cooler air could arrive during the weekend in the Northeast. Toward the end of the month, some of the cooler air from out West could begin to spill into the region. November could commence on a cool note. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.2°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.4°C for the week centered around October 14. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -1.10°C. La Niña conditions will likely prevail at least into mid-winter. The SOI was +9.47. Today, the preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.239. On October 21 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 2.466 (RMM). The October 20-adjusted amplitude was 2.312. Since 1950, there have been five cases where a La Niña developed during June-July-August or afterward following an El Niño winter. 4/5 (80%) of those cases saw a predominant EPO+/AO+ winter pattern. The most recent such case was 2016-17. 9/10 (90%) of the La Niña winters that followed an El Niño winter featured a predominantly positive EPO. From that larger pool of 10 La Niña winters that followed El Niño winters, there were four cases where October saw the MJO in Phases 4-6 for 20 days or more, as was the case this year: 1983-84, 1988-89, 1998-99, and 2016-17. All four cases featured an EPO+/AO+ winter. Both 1988-89 and 1998-99 saw the MJO in Phase 5 with an amplitude of 2.000 or above as has occurred this year. Both those winters featured below to much below normal snowfall in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England areas. Select snowfall seasonal snowfall totals were: 1988-89: Boston: 15.5" New York City: 8.1" Philadelphia: 11.2" 1998-99: Boston: 36.4" New York City: 12.7" Philadelphia: 12.5" This is not cast in stone. However, this is a plausible scenario should things evolve toward an EPO+/AO+ winter as is suggested on some of the current seasonal guidance. Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 88% probability that New York City will have a warmer than normal October. October will likely finish with a mean temperature near 58.8°. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 7 hours ago, uofmiami said: DPs of 60-65 aren't pleasantly cool. A/C is on for that reason plus it's 69 at both my weather stations in Nassau County currently. We just never got out of that foggy/cloudy morning feel up this way. I know it was much different the further east you got. Looking at the Metar reports, clearing got as far west as BDR. Without the sun, 65 with 100 percent humidity feels cool and damp, not oppressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Wantage NJ 0.01" mist-drizzle here this morning. Looks to me like mist at times here through Saturday morning...and clouds predominant through Wednesday with best chance for Partly-Mostly Sunny sky Sunday morning-midday. As for 1-3" rains early next week.... modeling quite uncertain so am less confident than yesterday, though the option is there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 DZ 63F As is the new norm in the area, the warmest temperature departures have been at night. A few degrees either side of 65F around the clock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 The next 8 days are averaging 57degs. Making it 52degs., or about -2.0. 62*(97%RH) here at 6am, ground wet, visibility about 5 miles-but not really clear. 63* by 9am, FOG<0.10 mile. Tropics: 33.2N 61.9W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 These high dew points and record warm minimums go together. This was the 10th October record warm minimum or tie at Newark since 2014. There have also been numerous 2nd and 3rd place finishes. Newark Area, NJ Period of record: 1931-01-01 through 2020-10-22DateHighest minimum temperatures (degrees F)Top Record 2nd Record 3rd Record 10/6 68 in 2017 67 in 1941 66 in 1959 10/7 70 in 2005 67 in 2018 66 in 2007+ 10/8 73 in 2017 66 in 2007 65 in 1990+ 10/9 72 in 2017 69 in 1990 68 in 1959 10/10 70 in 2018 66 in 2017 66 in 1990 10/11 69 in 1990 68 in 2018 63 in 2017+ 10/12 67 in 1990 64 in 1983 64 in 1969 10/13 70 in 1990 67 in 1983 63 in 1954 10/14 67 in 1990 65 in 1970 65 in 1954 10/15 69 in 2014 65 in 2017 64 in 1985 10/16 62 in 1960 60 in 2014 60 in 1992+ 10/17 63 in 1947 61 in 2013 60 in 2016 10/18 64 in 1947 63 in 1968 62 in 2016+ 10/19 64 in 2016 64 in 2012 63 in 2007+ 10/20 66 in 1984 60 in 2016 60 in 1994+ 10/21 62 in 1984 62 in 1979 61 in 2020 10/22 64 in 2020 64 in 1979 63 in 1984 10/23 64 in 2007 64 in 1979 62 in 1990+ 10/24 66 in 2017 63 in 1959 62 in 2001 10/25 62 in 1975 60 in 1971 58 in 1991 10/26 63 in 1971 62 in 2010 60 in 1946 10/27 63 in 1971 62 in 2010 61 in 1984 10/28 65 in 1971 63 in 1984 59 in 1953 10/29 61 in 2017 61 in 1984 61 in 1947 10/30 60 in 1946 58 in 2019 58 in 1935 10/31 62 in 2019 60 in 1989 59 in 1971+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Morning thoughts... Today will be mostly cloudy, though some areas could see the clouds break for a time. It will be mild with highs mainly in the upper 60s. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 67° Newark: 69° Philadelphia: 73° Overall, warmer than normal conditions should prevail into the start of the weekend, but a shot of much cooler air should arrive for Sunday. Meanwhile, a major early-season snowstorm will develop today in the Northern Rockies. Parts of that area could pick up a foot or more of snow. Frigid air will follow in the storm’s wake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 .02 now at Wantage NJ from off and on drizzle this morning. Sun dimly visible as of 834A. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 "heavy" drizzle here currently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 this weather sucks, when did seattle move? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 Breaks of sun here now. Days got switched it seems. Yday was suppose to be the day with most breaks of sun, I saw none. Today is suppose to be almost no chance, and sunshine is breaking through now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 6 minutes ago, dWave said: Breaks of sun here now. Days got switched it seems. Yday was suppose to be the day with most breaks of sun, I saw none. Today is suppose to be almost no chance, and sunshine is breaking through now. Just have to get lucky where a sucker hole opens up. Looking at visible sat would think most of us see some break of sun later as the cloud deck is breaking up a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 17 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Just have to get lucky where a sucker hole opens up. Looking at visible sat would think most of us see some break of sun later as the cloud deck is breaking up a bit. Agreed, fortunate here again today with a mix of clouds and sun, looks like another nice afternoon is instore 70/64. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 23, 2020 Share Posted October 23, 2020 34 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: Just have to get lucky where a sucker hole opens up. Looking at visible sat would think most of us see some break of sun later as the cloud deck is breaking up a bit. The sun just came out here in SW Suffolk. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.