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September Discobs 2020

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Only down to 54.2 this am after yesterday's 51.5. Still 1000% better than previous month of weather. 2nd dry day in a row here, I think the last time that happened the calendar was on July. 

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41 minutes ago, snowfan said:

Looking like a mostly dry work week, which is nice to see for a change.

Euro setup looked real ripe for days of convection starting Wed  but the  last 36 hours of runs its moved away unfortunately for mby . Love to see some action up here . Pretty crappy summer storm season here .And  If no more tropical delivers I'll be rooting for a 10/29/11 redux:snowing: to start the winter season off .

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Another dry day! 3 in a row, first time that has happened since 7/18-7/22 here. I've decided 77 for a high and 49 for a low should be the national summer temperature, like a flag or flower or bird.....

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8 minutes ago, wxdude64 said:

Another dry day! 3 in a row, first time that has happened since 7/18-7/22 here. I've decided 77 for a high and 49 for a low should be the national temperature, like a flag or flower or bird.....

63.1F Dry. I haven't turned on my sprinklers in a while. Grass and plants are still green.

 

Give me 80 degrees, partly cloudy, and an occasional breeze. That way, if you are out where there is no shade you get brief respites from passing clouds and a slight breeze. Ahhhhhh. 

 

 

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17 hours ago, losetoa6 said:

Euro setup looked real ripe for days of convection starting Wed  but the  last 36 hours of runs its moved away unfortunately for mby . Love to see some action up here . Pretty crappy summer storm season here. And  If no more tropical delivers I'll be rooting for a 10/29/11 redux:snowing: to start the winter season off .

October snow is a death kiss for a good winter in these parts.

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

October snow is a death kiss for a good winter in these parts.

Does it actually happen though? The GFS always freaks out and says it will, but of course it never does. I think it did this past year iirc.

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Just now, Rhino16 said:

Does it actually happen though? The GFS always freaks out and says it will, but of course it never does. I think it did this past year iirc.

Someone did a story of October snows greater than 1" at BWI, MDT and DCA. The results were pretty close to 1:1 that showed more than 1" in October with the exception of 1 year (2002-2003?) was warm and well below average.

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1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said:

October snow is a death kiss for a good winter in these parts.

That's an Urban Legend my friend.  I take snow whenever I can get it .

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5 hours ago, Eskimo Joe said:

October snow is a death kiss for a good winter in these parts.

The one I remember was 10/10/1979 with 2-3" in northern Calvert.  The following winter was decent with 20.1 for DCA and 26.8 for IAD.

Oh and Denver - their last three days were 101, 97 and 93.  Can you even?

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Just now, CAPE said:

Marginal risk of excessive rain for the area over the next couple days.

Pretty good slug of moisture moving into Southern MD. Interesting to see how much of that makes it up our way. Could be a rainy day if it makes it.

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23 minutes ago, dailylurker said:

Pretty good slug of moisture moving into Southern MD. Interesting to see how much of that makes it up our way. Could be a rainy day if it makes it.

Yeah the air mass is going to really juice up with the SE flow between the Atlantic ridge and that trough off the SE coast- PW nearing 2". There is some mid/upper level support, including a strong jet, but its not clear where any area(s) of low level convergence may set up, and thus where the heaviest rain will be. Seems like S MD and up along the lower bay has the highest probability for our region today, but the mesos generally keep much of the activity down in eastern VA and offshore. That seems to make sense given the location of the trough. Tomorrow looks like the better day across guidance for more widespread heavy rain in our area with the front moving into the juicy air mass in place.

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Speaking of the front, it looks to become stationary just to our south. We may be entering into a pretty wet period.

Mount Holly's take-

Big changes come on Sunday. The stationary front south of the region lifts north as a warm front. Meanwhile, H5 trough passes through the Great Lakes and passes through the Ohio Valley before lifting north into the Northeast and eastern Canada. Surface low pressure develops around the Mason-Dixon line and lifts to the northeast Sunday afternoon and Sunday evening. Periods of moderate to locally heavy rain are possible, as surface dew points climb back into the 70s. After the surface low departs, the cold front passes through Sunday night, and once again becomes nearly stationary over the Mid- Atlantic.

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Euro is really juicy for the next 48-60 hours. Other models less enthused.  Most of the disagreement is on today. Euro rains over the metro corridor all afternoon into the overnight while gfs is mostly dry.

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5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Euro is really juicy for the next 48-60 hours. Other models less enthused.  Most of the disagreement is on today. Euro rains over the metro corridor all afternoon into the overnight while gfs is mostly dry.

While I know you cannot advect radar, the regional mosaic appears to be lighting up.

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Glad I squeezed in a lawnmowing this morning. Grass needed cutting. Finished 11:00am, before the rain, granted grass had some water droplets from last nite which did not have a chance to fully evaporate this morning. But certainly not too wet to mow  

Now am watching my neighbor trying to mow in the rain at 1:15pm. A decent rainshower here has begun. Neighbor had to call it quits at 1:30.

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I'd love to see what the models actually look like today, as WPC has some big totals for our area in the next 24 hours and a SLGT risk for flash flooding overnight.

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