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September 2020 wx discussion


forkyfork

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11 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Wantage NJ 629A: Frosty roofs etc    and everyone should  be noticing smoke in this mornings sunrise...not as dense as last week, but that's coming by Wednesday. Yesterday's predictive smoke post still reasonable.

 

First official frost here and down to 31 now a couple miles south of KMGJ

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First 47° low in September at JFK since 1997. This is also the first September freeze at Sussex, NJ since the records began in 2001 on xmacis2.

Kennedy Intl   PTCLDY    47  39  74 NE6    
Sussex         CLEAR     31  29  92 CALM      30.58R

 

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
2020 47 10
2019 49 0
2018 54 0
2017 54 0
2016 51 0
2015 56 0
2014 51 0
2013 48 0
2012 52 0
2011 50 0
2010 53 0
2009 50 0
2008 52 0
2007 50 0
2006 49 0
2005 50 0
2004 51 0
2003 52 0
2002 54 0
2001 50 0
2000 44 0
1999 51 0
1998 46 0
1997 47 0

 

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ - Month of Sep
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Year
Lowest Min Temperature 
Missing Count
2020 31 10
2019 36 0
2018 44 0
2017 38 0
2016 36 8
2015 42 0
2014 39 0
2013 33 0
2012 37 1
2011 39 0
2010 38 0
2009 37 0
2008 37 0
2007 36 0
2006 34 0
2005 36 0
2004 40 0
2003 39 0
2002 38 0
2001 37 0


 

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29 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

September in September this year which has become a rarity 

These days we need some type of record 500 MB blocking ridge to get cold. Looks like the ridge will build again to close out the month. Probably our best chance for rain in a while as the trough really digs into the GL.

98C09DD6-FD6C-4BA8-AC99-D9B06795C3DE.thumb.png.f2871e34d79b6646ddbf95c59658186b.png

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Morning thoughts...

This morning, the temperature fell below 50° in Central Park. The last time the temperature fell in the 40s in September was September 24, 2013 when the temperature fell to 47°. Today will be partly sunny and still very cool for the season. The temperature will likely top out in the lower and middle 60s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 64°
Newark: 66°
Philadelphia: 66°

Starting tomorrow, a warmer pattern will develop.

In terms of verification, here's how last evening's estimates worked out:

Albany: 33°; Actual: 32°
Allentown: 37°; Actual: 33°
Boston: 47°; Actual: 45°
Bridgeport: 48°; Actual: 44°
Harrisburg: 42°; Actual: 43°
Hartford: 36°; Actual: 34°
Islip: 48°; Actual: 44°
New York City: 49°; Actual: 49°
Newark: 47°; Actual: 45°
Philadelphia: 48°; Actual: 47°
Poughkeepsie: 36°; Actual: 31°
Providence: 44°; Actual: 43°
White Plains: 43°; Actual: 41°

Average Error: 2.2°

 

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Just now, Cfa said:

Later on I’ll fiddle with my weather radio to see if it gets a stronger connection from Manhattan or Riverhead (weak).

Signal is strong enough in Syosset.  I doubt you’ll hear it from Riverhead with this transmitter now at only 1000w. Old transmitter was 1500w as I recall.

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51/37 off a low of 40 (no frost again). Coldest temps now past us till at least Oct 5th.  Wam-rup underway slowly today and more pronounced Wed (9/23) - Tue (9/29). Max temps likely  in the mid / upper 70s most days but 80 - 85 range best chance Thu (9/24) and more sneaky warmth Mon (9/28 and Tue 9/29).  Lots of Southerly and onshore in the period then clouds may limit warmth later this weekend and early next week.

West coast ridge builds in the 9/26 - 10/2 period and forces a trough into the Plains, Mid West, GL coldest staying west of the area in this period.  The trough does look to split into the southeast and a piece swings through the east coast 9/30 - 10/2 which could see the first meaningful rain since 9/10.  

Way beyond West Coast has dibs on ridging with troughing into the mid section could mean a wetter forst week or two of next month but overall near or warmer than normal.  Going from a 3 week dry period to very wet seems a logical progression for us,

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September is still likely to end up AN but it'll be a departure from the crazy warm Septembers of recent years. 

Things def look a lot weather to end the month if the pattern shown is correct.

GFS overplayed its hand with the ridging though so a late season 90F looks very unlikely right now and probably done till next Spring.

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41 minutes ago, uofmiami said:

Signal is strong enough in Syosset.  I doubt you’ll hear it from Riverhead with this transmitter now at only 1000w. Old transmitter was 1500w as I recall.

I thought this return to full power happened some time ago.    I have had a good locked signal for months in CI.     There was a period where my own position/antenna made a difference.

Concerning the range, the antenna height and its gain is what counts.   Nearby structures and those along signal path play a role too---thus all the testing.   Theoretically, power must increase by 4X to make a significant difference---to 4,000 watts here.

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42 minutes ago, psv88 said:

40.1 this morning. Radiated extremely well here

Same out here.  I am a native LIer and can tell you that there was an early season Arctic air mass that impacted the area back around 1974/1975.  This event produced high temperatures in the 40s and lows of about 30 on the north shore of LI during mid October at that time.  For the time of year it was impressive.  In any case  I have personally never seen frost anywhere this early in the season until today.

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

These days we need some type of record 500 MB blocking ridge to get cold. Looks like the ridge will build again to close out the month. Probably our best chance for rain in a while as the trough really digs into the GL.

98C09DD6-FD6C-4BA8-AC99-D9B06795C3DE.thumb.png.f2871e34d79b6646ddbf95c59658186b.png

Yep. Any warm up that comes this week will be short lived 

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2 hours ago, bluewave said:

Unusually cold readings for September which has seen the greatest monthly warming here in 30 years.

 

 

Meanwhile there was this dopey response to that post; I sure hope the daughter didn't listen.

 

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1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Morning thoughts...

This morning, the temperature fell below 50° in Central Park. The last time the temperature fell in the 40s in September was September 24, 2013 when the temperature fell to 47°. Today will be partly sunny and still very cool for the season. The temperature will likely top out in the lower and middle 60s across the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 64°
Newark: 66°
Philadelphia: 66°

Starting tomorrow, a warmer pattern will develop.

In terms of verification, here's how last evening's estimates worked out:

Albany: 33°; Actual: 32°
Allentown: 37°; Actual: 33°
Boston: 47°; Actual: 45°
Bridgeport: 48°; Actual: 44°
Harrisburg: 42°; Actual: 43°
Hartford: 36°; Actual: 34°
Islip: 48°; Actual: 44°
New York City: 49°; Actual: 49°
Newark: 47°; Actual: 45°
Philadelphia: 48°; Actual: 47°
Poughkeepsie: 36°; Actual: 31°
Providence: 44°; Actual: 43°
White Plains: 43°; Actual: 41°

Average Error: 2.2°

 

Thanks Don, do you have the lows for JFK and LGA too?

 

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46 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

September is still likely to end up AN but it'll be a departure from the crazy warm Septembers of recent years. 

Things def look a lot weather to end the month if the pattern shown is correct.

GFS overplayed its hand with the ridging though so a late season 90F looks very unlikely right now and probably done till next Spring.

With all this cold, what is causing it to end up above normal?  We should just go by the last 10 years, 30 years ago is ancient history and not representative of our current climate.

 

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30 minutes ago, Tatamy said:

Same out here.  I am a native LIer and can tell you that there was an early season Arctic air mass that impacted the area back around 1974/1975.  This event produced high temperatures in the 40s and lows of about 30 on the north shore of LI during mid October at that time.  For the time of year it was impressive.  In any case  I have personally never seen frost anywhere this early in the season until today.

we had upper 20s in mid October a few years ago on the South Shore.  I dont remember what year it was but it was after 2014 and RJay was quite excited about it heh.

 

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1 hour ago, psv88 said:

40.1 this morning. Radiated extremely well here

Looks like Muttontown was down around 37.  Anyone have any numbers out of FOK?  Did they get below freezing for the first time this season?

I'm still in NE PA (coming back tomorrow) we had a frost here, low was 28 degrees at Blakeslee, which is the closest station I could find to my location.

 

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