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wxeyeNH

Hurricane Isaias

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1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Bob went 200 miles to your East. Take a step away and get ahold of yourself 

lol 200? The western eyewall went over mine in Ashaway RI,  so probably like 45 to the Wolfie

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

lol 200? The western eyewall went over mine in Ashaway RI,  so probably like 45 to the Wolfie

Lol and he’s telling me to step away....???  

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4 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Bob was a complete flop here, if this is similar to that, it’ll be another nothing burger for lots of folks.  

I was 10 days without power from bob and 2' of water in the basement, Better prepared today if that would ever be the case again.

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Just now, dryslot said:

I was 10 days without power from bob and 2' of water in the basement, Better prepared today if that would ever be the case again.

I believe it. Just was speaking for my area. 

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

Some don't keep model subscription just to track summer HHH.

Your welcome, nice to get thank yous once in a while from my good friends although some cookies would be better, hint lol

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Seeing how there are no tornado warnings currently to the southwest I suppose is a good thing. Anyways, velocites are ripping looking at DIX

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Your welcome, nice to get thank yous once in a while from my good friends although some cookies would be better, hint lol

An actual bottle of wine and block of cheese goes a long way too, lol, I have not whipped up a batch in a while though.

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6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This is not a Bob...lol. Probably a weaker Irene.

Its also way more west than Irene was so maybe even less than that. At least for me.

Even Sandy barely affected me.

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1 minute ago, Nova737 said:

Its also way more west than Irene was so maybe even less than that.

It's pretty similar to Irene, right near NYC. Irene was stronger though. 

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2 minutes ago, Nova737 said:

Its also way more west than Irene was so maybe even less than that.

Irene was a big deal in N. New England for sure. But it was nothing in my area too.  Again just saying/speaking for my area. 

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8 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Bob was a cat 5 compared to this storm in the Merrimack Valley area....

Totally different.  Bob went east.

My brother just texted from Ocean City MD.  Crazy strong winds on the backside now

Very dark just to my west. I'm watching a shelf cloud to my west but moving NNE,  right on the edge of these heavy downpours

 

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1 minute ago, wxeyeNH said:

Totally different.  Bob went east.

My brother just texted from Ocean City MD.  Crazy strong winds on the backside now

Very dark just to my west. I'm watching a shelf cloud to my west but moving NNE,  right on the edge of these heavy downpours

 

Stinger 

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Is it me or did they change the change the track of Isaias on the 11:00 advisory more westward? Looks like none of the cone covers Connecticut or Massachusetts now. The center crosses further west of NYC

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2 minutes ago, Pluffmud said:

Is it me or did they change the change the track of Isaias on the 11:00 advisory more westward? Looks like none of the cone covers Connecticut or Massachusetts now. The center crosses further west of NYC

There was a western shift on models very early this morning. Precip shield looks further west than modeled yesterday too.

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I don't think comparisons to previous events is really justifiable. Each setup is rather unique. If you're looking to compare you would have to find a previous event in which the synoptics match quite well (this is extremely important in this situation given the role the ULJ is playing here) and find some similarities within the mesoscale...such as the profile of the lower atmosphere. How many events like this do we see in which an inversion is very weak or even non-existent (though I don't think you can use non-existent b/c there has to be some sort of inversion involved) and how many tropical systems give us the tornado threat we have...at the end of the day the TOR threat is probably the biggest out of any threat. The damaging wind threat can't be overlooked either...yes 50-60 knots may not sound "exciting" but winds of that magnitude over a widespread area with fully leaved trees is going to cause issues...don't be fooled about the "fast" nature or "brief" period of these winds...in fact, winds can be maximized when the forward speed of a system is very fast (one of the culprits which made the 38 hurricane damage even worse). 

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lol at the peeps posting yesterday was winder. Reminds me of the storm cancel posts before Feb 13 Jan 15 March 18. Nothing changed

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Last tropical system that was the real deal here where I am was Gloria in 85...that was pretty good here.  
 
Watching and waiting to see how all this plays out here?  

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9 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Seeing how there are no tornado warnings currently to the southwest I suppose is a good thing. Anyways, velocites are ripping looking at DIX

John Earthlight

 

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8 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

Seeing how there are no tornado warnings currently to the southwest I suppose is a good thing. Anyways, velocites are ripping looking at DIX

Yeah...I've been talking about this, this morning...even annotated a chart to help demo/illustrate the reasoning - not sure it is being seen or acknowledged...

But the warned cells this morning - in my assessment - do not appear to be borne of the TC mechanics ... Those cells were IB generated as the environmental flow out ahead of the TC is SSW and is lifting over a frontalysis that is lingering over the region along the Mass Pike... When those cells speed bumped over the boundary interface, they likely closed off their updrafts briefly because of the shear profiles along that axis.   

Just sayn'

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4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

John Earthlight

 

wow!

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah...I've been talking about this, this morning...even annotated a chart to help demo/illustrate the reasoning - not sure it is being seen or acknowledged...

But the warned cells this morning - in my assessment - do not appear to be borne of the TC mechanics ... Those cells were IB generated as the environmental flow out ahead of the TC is SSW and is lifting over a frontalysis that is lingering over the region along the Mass Pike... When those cells speed bumped over the boundary interface, they likely closed off their updrafts briefly because of the shear profiles along that axis.   

Just sayn'

ahh yes i do recall seeing that post. Was going to respond but got side tracked. Interesting observation and makes alot of sense I think. 

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Totally get the feeling people in general all around are writing this off as meh. Hopefully it is but ....

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Just now, Ginx snewx said:

Totally get the feeling people in general all around are writing this off as meh. Hopefully it is but ....

I think people are expecting this to be like an all day event of craziness and damage...it's really only a several hour window of hell...calm before, then hell, then a gradual decline, then quickly back to calm

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As a severe weather enthusiast I hope I get a direct impact before the season ends.

As someone who lives here though, I really don't want to have to deal with no power for an extended period of time, which is exactly what would happen during such an occasion.

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

I think people are expecting this to be like an all day event of craziness and damage...it's really only a several hour window of hell...calm before, then hell, then a gradual decline, then quickly back to calm

Hell lol...ya I’m not thinking hell. But ok. 

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15 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

It's pretty similar to Irene, right near NYC. Irene was stronger though. 

Irene was further east right into NYC

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