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August Discobs 2020

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Excessive Rainfall discussion for the MA from WPC-

Activity on Thursday was widespread and quasi-organized on larger scales. On Friday we may see lesser coverage and/or lesser longevity of individual storm clusters, as the upper trough continues to fill, experiencing height rises at its base over the Ohio Valley and mid Atlantic today. Sufficient heating of the still tropical airmass, however, is likely to lead to scattered initiation along sea breezes, over the mountains, and near a quasi-stationary front and inverted surface trough sitting over DE/MD/PA. Hi-res model consensus places the greatest concentration of rainfall over Maryland and southern PA to southern NJ, thus near and north of the surface front where both mid level and jet level forcing should contribute to somewhat greater lift compared to areas farther south. Models generally agree, and especially the various HRRR runs, that a flash flood threat could develop early in the morning as the tail end of a jet entrance region interacts with the CAPE gradient north of the front in Pennsylvania. Coverage of storms will then increase elsewhere by midday, with HREF odds of inch per hour rates peaking after 22Z in MD/DC/VA. The environment and model signal certainly support local rain rates nearing 2 inches per hour. Much of this region is quite saturated, to say the least, in the wake recent widespread heavy rain events. Once again, a lack of sustained forcing and the expectation of lesser coverage today is what keeps this event in the Slight Risk category, but wherever multi-inch rainfall occurs in urban areas or other sensitive basins, an isolated significant flash flood is possible.

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muggy, foggy and damp out there this morning

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Just noticed TT has the GEFS Para (v12 upgrade) available. It is higher resolution and has more members(31?)

The 0z run goes out to 840 hours lol.

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55 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Just noticed TT has the GEFS Para (v12 upgrade) available. It is higher resolution and has more members(31?)

The 0z run goes out to 840 hours lol.

Just what we need for winter. :weenie::weenie:

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21z HRRR is pretty meh for storms, outside of a rogue cluster in Frederick County, MD in the 7p - 10p timeframe.

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31 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Just what we need for winter. :weenie::weenie:

Yup.  Big hit incoming at hr 779...0C line straddling 95...we’ll watch it

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8 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Sitting outside at Attaboy Brewery enjoying a very social distant beer and watching the storm brew just to our west.

image.jpeg.5daf2b14c3eefa85034c9607907649cd.jpeg

Damn, you're a professional!

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1 minute ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Like you didn’t know that. Hope that you’re doing well!

I want to be you when I grow up.

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18z hrrr gives me 3 rounds of storms this evening and overnight so I’ll just sit here patiently :yikes:

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1 hour ago, AmericanWxFreak said:

Not that we need it as badly anymore, but sucks to see the rain miss south yesterday and north today lol 

Yup.  That big storm last night sat 5-10 miles from me for a couple hours.  Heard the thunder but missed.  I knew today would be a shutout.

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Thought for sure that storm out near Frederick would get the Baltimore area good but no dice. That mean stuff up in PA must be robbing all the energy 

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30 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

Thought for sure that storm out near Frederick would get the Baltimore area good but no dice. That mean stuff up in PA must be robbing all the energy 

Thats where the best forcing is- along the weak front that lies across that area. Should sink SE, and some other cells may pop up out ahead of it this evening. Not sure how widespread it will be. Looks more scattered to isolated.

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Colliding boundaries kicking off storms near Owings Mills. Maybe something popping near me?

edit...sprinkles achieved 

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Another tornado warning in Northern Delaware  , Jeez ! 

Storms moving onto my location now. 

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Radar indicates that storm in extreme SE PA and Northern DE means business .

Torrential rains here now.  Streets already flooding . 

 

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29 minutes ago, frd said:

Radar indicates that storm in extreme SE PA and Northern DE means business .

Torrential rains here now.  Streets already flooding . 

 

I lived in Wilmington for 20 years and this is the worst flooding I’ve ever seen at my old house. Way worse than Irene, Sandy, Isaias, etc. apologies for the grainy pic, it’s a screenshot from a video. 

Most of the backyard is totally submerged and the basement is flooding. What a week of weather. 

31569D82-8182-4672-84B9-47544FE067D6.png

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